Wind Chill Advisory 18, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
240 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE LOW WIND CHILLS AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON REMAIN COLD FROM SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES DROP INTO
ADVISORY RANGE EARLIER THAN PAST NIGHTS SO WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER EFFECTIVE FROM
00Z WED THROUGH MID MORNING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS ND BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING THAN GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS
DEPICT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 30 KTS AROUND 18Z WITH MIXING
TO NEAR 850MB WITH A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FEEL
CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BUT
OPTED TO ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. OTHER CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL PROBLEMS
WITH BLOWING SNOW...BUT FELT THAT DUE TO NATURE OF SNOW PACK OVER
MUCH OF OUR AREA AND STRONGEST WINDS TO OUR EAST THAT IT WILL BE
HARD TO GET WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2SM...THEREFORE OPTED
FOR WIND ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW IN CASE BLOWING SNOW BECOMES A MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO USED A
BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST
EAST OF THE STATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ON FRIDAY...A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
4-CORNERS AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH OVER
THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. AS
TIME GOES ON...A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP THAT REACHES INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN REACHING FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER NORTH DAKOTA - WITH
MORE OF THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. PRELIMINARY SNOW TOTAL ESTIMATES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WOULD BRING A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 DURING THIS 3-DAY PERIOD...WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING INTO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CATEGORY IN SOME PART OF THE STATE EACH NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE BELOW ZERO OVER ALL AREAS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH LOWS FROM 10 BELOW SOUTHWEST TO 25 TO 30 BELOW EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS OF 30 TO 50 BELOW ZERO ARE
POSSIBLE. THE COLDEST DAYTIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-
051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-
012-013-022-023-025-037-048.

&&

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

NDZ001>003-009>011-021-022-035-036-046-047-050-051-262100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-
BURLEIGH-KIDDER-EMMONS-LOGAN-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
247 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR WIND CHILLS OF 25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MID MORNING.

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR AND LOWEST WIND CHILLS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND THAT MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025-037-048-262100-
BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-WELLS-FOSTER-STUTSMAN-LA MOURE-
247 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR WIND CHILLS OF 25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MID MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MID MORNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH GUSTING TO 45. BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR AND LOWEST WIND CHILLS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND THAT MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045-262100-
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
247 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014 /147 PM MST TUE FEB 25 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR AND LOWEST WIND CHILLS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND THAT MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JNS/JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1043 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 AM     SNOW             DICKINSON               46.88N 102.79W
02/25/2014  M1.5 INCH        STARK              ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR CO-OP SNOW TOTAL

&&

AC