Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Bismarck, ND

195 
WWUS53 KBIS 262140
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
440 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

NDC023-105-262230-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140526T2230Z/
WILLIAMS ND-DIVIDE ND-
440 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
DIVIDE AND NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 431 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
GRENORA...OR 33 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROSBY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALAMO...WRITING ROCK STATE HISTORICAL SITE...HANKS...ZAHL...APPAM AND
CORINTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL FROM GOLF 
BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE 
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS 
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN 
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR 
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4886 10406 4887 10326 4839 10332 4858 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 280DEG 27KT 4870 10390

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HEINERT

754 
WWUS53 KBIS 262206
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
506 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

NDC023-105-262230-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140526T2230Z/
WILLIAMS ND-DIVIDE ND-
506 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
DIVIDE AND NORTH CENTRAL WILLIAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 505 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ALAMO...OR 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROSBY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALAMO...APPAM AND CORINTH.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IN SHERIDAN COUNTY 
MONTANA AND IN DIVIDE COUNTY NORTH DAKOTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4875 10389 4883 10327 4839 10332 4857 10396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 280DEG 27KT 4864 10361

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HEINERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY.

CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC-BASED CAPE
AROUND 1400 J/KG AND 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDED SEVERE MENTION TO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
RESULT.

ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

BY TUESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG COMBINED
WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL GENERATE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...REMOVED SEVERE
MENTION FROM TUESDAY'S FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WARM
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY.

FOR TUESDAY EVENING...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER NORTHERN
TEXAS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
ONGOING OR EXITING OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE TRACKS EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SHOULD ACT TO STEER ANY OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES NORTHERLY
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...PERHAPS GRAZING WEST OR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE AM HOURS. WE ARE THEN VERY MUCH CAPPED DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ACROSS THE REGION. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST CLOSER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR A SFC TROUGH NEARING THE MT/ND
BORDER.

SFC TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED. MID LEVEL SUPPORT UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE OVER MY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE SFC
TROUGH STALLS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP FOR THE COMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH MODELS DISAGREEING ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS EVENTUALLY EJECTED NORTH
AND EAST. WHICHEVER MODEL VERIFIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND EVENTUALLY WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
ALLBLEND MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER KBIS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 22Z...THEN GRADUALLY PUSH INTO KMOT
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND INTO KBIS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

NOTE...TECHNICIANS ARE EN ROUTE TO FIX THE KISN ASOS. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
AMD NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
253 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

NDZ004-012-272000-
BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY-
253 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR WESTHOPE...
BANTRY...AND TOWNER...AND FOR THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...BUT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...POSSIBLY
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/BIS

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031-032-272000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-
253 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014 /153 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/BIS

NDZ003-005-011-013-019>023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051-272000-
RENVILLE-ROLETTE-WARD-PIERCE-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
253 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014 /153 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/BIS

TM/NH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
357 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

NDZ001-262115-
DIVIDE-
357 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 350 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA...5 MILES EAST OF
PLENTYWOOD...OR 10 MILES WEST OF THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTERS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALL OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED FROM THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ALKABO...
  FORTUNA...
  WRITING ROCK STATE HISTORICAL SITE...

IF YOU ARE IN WESTERN DIVIDE COUNTY...STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WITHIN
THE NEXT ONE HOUR.

LAT...LON 4900 10388 4901 10385 4901 10369 4900 10368
      4871 10365 4869 10406 4900 10406 4901 10405
      4901 10391
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 260DEG 16KT 4878 10432

HEINERT