Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Bismarck, ND

631 
WWUS53 KBIS 170329
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1029 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

NDC041-089-170400-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-140617T0400Z/
HETTINGER ND-STARK ND-
929 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
STARK AND NORTHEASTERN HETTINGER COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM MDT...

AT 926 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES EAST OF
LEFOR...OR 31 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DICKINSON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN HETTINGER AND SOUTHEASTERN STARK COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4657 10238 4671 10236 4674 10211 4651 10210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 266DEG 11KT 4661 10226

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

SCHECK/MM

248 
WWUS53 KBIS 170358
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1058 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

NDC041-089-170408-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-140617T0400Z/
HETTINGER ND-STARK ND-
958 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STARK AND
NORTHEASTERN HETTINGER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM CDT/1000 PM
MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4657 10238 4671 10236 4674 10211 4651 10210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 266DEG 11KT 4662 10213

$$

SCHECK/MM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC AND THE 01-02 UTC
RAP/HRRR...CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

FOLLOWING THE 20-21 UTC RAP/HRRR RUNS...SUPPORTED BY STABLE 18 UTC
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF A CUMULUS FIELD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REMOVED POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA
HIGHWAY 3. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE LIMITING
INTENSITY. ML CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40
KTS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED. FINALLY...GIVEN UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW...DID ADD
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...GO FIGURE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING BOUNDARY INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACKING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP CONTINUE TO DIMINISH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTER
MONTANA...BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY...THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FAR WEST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING MOVING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD AND MOVING A RIDGE
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM PLACING THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY...AND
MOVING IT EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: ON TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER KANSAS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
DURING THIS TIME THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. BY WEDNESDAY THE THREAT
IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 85.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE NEAR
THE ND/MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE
WILL HAVE BEEN A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- WITH THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
BUILD A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER MONTANA/DAKOTAS. A FEW WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE WEAK RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KDIK REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED. WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG AND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDIK AND POSSIBLY KISN AND KBIS.
KMOT AND KJMS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THIS FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

NDZ018>021-031>034-040>045-180300-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
957 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 /857 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH
LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. ALSO...HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FURTHERMORE...THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 85. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/BIS

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-180300-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-
957 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. ALSO...HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FURTHERMORE...THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 85. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/BIS

NDZ004-180300-
BOTTINEAU-
957 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR WESTHOPE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/BIS

NDZ003-005-011>013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-180300-
RENVILLE-ROLETTE-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
957 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. ALSO...HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FURTHERMORE...THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 85. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/BIS

AYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
747 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             2 SSW TROTTERS          47.29N 103.93W
06/16/2014  E0.75 INCH       GOLDEN VALLEY      ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MMATHEWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
807 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             SOUTH HEART             46.86N 102.99W
06/16/2014  E1.00 INCH       STARK              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MMATHEWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
827 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             3 SE SOUTH HEART        46.83N 102.95W
06/16/2014  E2.75 INCH       STARK              ND   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH SOME BASEBALL SIZED HAIL

&&

MMATHEWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
842 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HAIL             1 SE SOUTH HEART        46.85N 102.98W
06/16/2014  E2.00 INCH       STARK              ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA. HAIL SIZE ESTIMATED FROM
            PHOTO.

&&

AYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     TORNADO          13 SSW DICKINSON        46.71N 102.90W
06/16/2014                   STARK              ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT. TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
            REPORTED. NO FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

AYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
959 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

NDZ033-170400-
STARK-
859 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL STARK COUNTY...

AT 854 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEFOR...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DICKINSON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LEFOR...
  GLADSTONE...
  RICHARDTON...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH
AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4663 10273 4681 10275 4699 10214 4698 10210
      4663 10210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 266DEG 17KT 4673 10260

SCHECK/MM