Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
401 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO NOW, EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NORTHEAST US WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WESTERN NY WITH SOME THUNDER
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY BY DAYBREAK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS, AND A GENERAL AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE JUST MENTIONED MOVES
EAST. WHILE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXISTS EVERYWHERE, BY FAR THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN NY STATE AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST, WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

AS THE DAY SHIFT MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A STAGNANT UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BE UPON US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRONOUNCED TROF IN THE
NORTHEAST NOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BROADEN OUT A
BIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OR AROUND 80 DURING THE
DAY AND 60 AT NIGHT. THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH HELPING TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLRD BETWEEN WVS AND MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO FRM...ESP IN
THE VLYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OCNL IFR CONDS AT ELM...AND SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ELSEWHERE. SHRTLY AFT 12Z...ANOTHER WC WILL
APRCH AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SHWRS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...BALANCE OF THE DAYLGT HERS SHD HAVE VFR CONDS. LGT WINDS
AND VFR CONDS WILL CONT AFT 00Z AND THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
601 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

NYZ016-017-311100-
CAYUGA NY-SENECA NY-
601 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SENECA AND WEST CENTRAL
CAYUGA COUNTIES...

* AT 559 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES WEST
  OF WATERLOO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BORDER CITY AT 620 AM EDT...
  PACKWOOD CORNERS AND ROSE HILL AT 625 AM EDT...
  WATERLOO AND DUBLIN AT 630 AM EDT...
  SENECA FALLS AND MAGEE AT 635 AM EDT...
  LEHIGH VLY JCT AND TYRE AT 640 AM EDT...
  CAYUGA AND UNION SPRINGS AT 645 AM EDT...
  FOSTERVILLE AND MONTEZUMA AT 650 AM EDT...
  THROOPSVILLE AND FLEMING AT 655 AM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4288 7697 4301 7697 4302 7695 4303 7660
      4286 7652 4277 7698 4287 7699

HEDEN