Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOAKING RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM UPDATE...LATEST LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL BGM AREA. THIS FEATURE
EXTENDS UP THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTH ACROSS THE
WYOMING VALLEY. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FEATURE ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
AREA ITS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES BEFORE
STALLING AND MOVING BACK EAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN CAPE AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LESSEN. CONVECTION OVER GEORGIAN BAY WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NRN PTN OF CWA LATE TONIGHT BUT
BOUNDARY WILL SLOW OVERNIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT BY THEN.

3 PM UPDATE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE L60S
IN THE WEST. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE WITH A WEAK WAVE A FEW
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTORM WILL GET GOING LATE TODAY AND THIS EVE.
THE UL RIDGE ALSO MOVES THROUGH CREATING A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE CWA. WITH THE HIGH DEWPT
TEMPS...MIN TEMPS WILL VARY WIDELY FROM U40S EAST TO A60 FAR WEST.
DEWPTS DROP AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH THE EXIT OF THE WARM FRONT
AND THE COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY IN ERN MICIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

WED AND THU WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS. WEAK FORCING AND
MORE COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WED WILL BE
BETTER THAN THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO NW NY THEN LIFTS
NORTH WED NGT. THU LITTLE FORCING AS WE WAIT FOR THE MAIN SHOW
WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE MISS
VALLEY TO MICHIGAN THEN INTO QUEBEC AHEAD OF A DEEP DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS STALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT
KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN OF WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR ISOLATED HYDRO PROBLEMS.
THIS RAIN HELPED BY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AND PWATS OF 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPTS 60S AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE. WITH RIVERS NEAR NORMAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WOULD MOST LIKELY
NOT CAUSE ANY FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS INDICATING CDFNT WL BE BISECTING CWA AT BEGINNING
OF LONG TERM. HV GONE WITH LKLY/CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH
CHC FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST. MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED FOLLOWING
FROPA. REMAINDER OF LONG TERM WL FEATURE SHOWERS EACH PD COURTESY
OF UPR LVL LOW HANGING BACK TO THE WEST. AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE
CASES, EXPECT THAT AFT 12Z SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS WL BE OF
THE MORE HIT AND MISS VARIETY WITH MOSTLY MISSES. THUS, THRU THE
END OF THE LONG TERM WL KEEP 20-30 POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA.

TEMPS DRG THE PD EXPECTED TO BE BLO NRML UNDER EXTENSIVE CLD CVR.
FOLLOWED WPC GRIDS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES BTWN MED RANGE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THE EXTENT OF THE
PROJECTED MARINE LAYER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUR LATEST
FORECAST INCLUDES A TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR
CEILINGS FROM AVP UP TO ITH.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, THEN A
PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH A SCATTERED CU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND
5000 FEET.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT/THUR...MAINLY VFR, BUT POSSIBLE MVFR PDS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THUR NGT/FRI...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR AREA.

SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-141800-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
151 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A COLD FRONT WITH RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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