River Flood Warning 10, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
848 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS TONIGHT BRINGING THE RAIN
TO AN END. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON WITH COOL
AIR EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

845 PM UPDATE...RAIN TAKING IT/S SWEET TIME LVG THE FCST AREA.
MUCH LGTR RAIN LEFTOVER IN THE WRN CATS WILL CONT TO CREEP EWRD
OVRNGT. MADE SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS ON THE PCPN AND TEMPS
OTRW THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PRVS DISC BLO.

140 PM UPDATE...
FRONT IS HUNG UP IN OUR ERN ZONES THIS AFTN BTWN WILKES-BARRE
SCRANTON AND MOUNT POCONO AND UP INTO THE WRN CATS. LAST VORT MAX IS
NOW COMING UP THRU ERN PA WITH BACK EDGE OF RAIN GETTING INTO THE
POCONOS AT THIS TIME. ASSOC LOPRES LOCATED AT THE DE/NJ BORDER WL
RIDE UP ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY AND KEEP CDFNT LOCKED IN PLACE THRU THE
NEXT FEW HRS. THIS WL LEAD TO OCNL MODERATE RAIN FROM THE I-81
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST THRU LATE AFTN.

ONCE LOPRES HEADS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TWD 00Z IT WL BEGIN TO
PULL THE CDFNT THRU RMNDR OF CWA AND RESULT IN JUST SCTD -SHRAS THRU
ABOUT 06Z BFR WINDING DOWN OVR THE CATS.  BTWN NOW AND 06Z TONIGHT
EXPECT AN ADDNL 1-2 INCHES EAST OF A FLORENCE NY TO CARBONDALE PA
LINE. THUS, WL KEEP FFA UP THRU 06Z TONIGHT FOR THESE AREA BUT MAY
CANCEL FFA WITH NEXT UPDATE FM CAYUGA CNTY DOWN TWD BRADFORD CNTY.

TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO FALL FOLLOWING FROPA WITH LOW TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE U30S ACRS THE FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
STRONG UL ENERGY SPINNING THRU IOWA AT THIS TIME WL NOT BE ABLE TO
PHASE WITH UPR SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH THRU ONTARIO. A PORTION OF THIS
WV WL KICK OUT TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS DVLPNG
AFT 12Z SATURDAY AS IT DOES SO. HARD TO JUSTIFY GOING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 20 POPS AS THE WRN CNTYS WL LKLY BE UNDER SUBSIDENCE AFT THIS
WV MVS THRU. MAX TEMPS FOR TOMORROW WL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL
WITH SOME LOCALES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.

IF SKIES CAN CLR SAT NGT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS TO DIP DOWN INTO
THE MID-30S FOR OVRNGT MIN. THESE TEMPS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST
FORMATION ACRS THE VLYS OF CNTRL NY. HWVR THIS ALL HINGES ON CLRNG
SKIES AS WINDS WL BE DROPPING OFF AS SFC HIPRES BUILDS IN.

H5 TROF PROGGED TO MV THRU CWA SOMETIME SUNDAY MRNG AND MAY RESULT
IN SHOWERS DRG THE DAY. H5 TROF WL MV THRU SUN EVNG AND CHC FOR LGT
SHOWERS WL EXIST EACH AFTN THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH COOL
CONDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY. MON MRNG MAY BRING MORE PATCHY FROST TO
THE CWA WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER ATMOSPHERIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND OVER OUR
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO NY AND PA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AND IN IT'S WAKE ARE MVFR AND
EMBEDDED IFR CIGS WITH VISBYS RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME DRY AIR IS MOVING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND COMPLICATIONS COME WITH THIS FACTOR.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
WHICH SITES WILL BECOME VFR WITH THIS DRY AIR. BELIEVE FOG/STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12Z EXCEPT AT KBGM WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AT IFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 13-16Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 11 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH LINGERING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT MORNING.

SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISO -SHRA.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-018-036-
     037-044>046-056-057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DGM/PVN
NEAR TERM...DGM/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
306 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-
072-171915-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
306 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. ALL
INTERESTS WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ015>017-022>025-055-PAZ038-171915-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-TIOGA-
BRADFORD-
306 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. ALL
INTERESTS WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PN

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