Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HAS LED
TO SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOWING SOME
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS MN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING
EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURE-WISE...READING ACROSS
THE AREA RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

MODELS SHOW THAT WARM FRONT PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...THEN BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE THEN SOME INCREASING
CLOUD THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY OCCURRED. MOSTLY LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO HAPPEN
APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPOND NICELY
TODAY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF
IN THE 35-40 RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY AND QUIET
CONDITIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. PLAN ON RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CST
TUE FEB 18 2014

MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE WINTER STORM TAKING AIM ON THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME SLIGHT TRACK DIFFERENCES...BUT AGREE ON
STRONG/DANGEROUS WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF SHOWS A 982MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WI WHICH WOULD PUT US IN GROUND ZERO FOR
HEAVY SNOW OVER US AS QPF VALUES EXCEED 6/10 INCH. GFS/NAM TAKE
WEAKER LOWS //987-990MB// FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI.
NONETHELESS...ALL TRACKS WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
AREA. COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW THURSDAY
MORNING AT THE ONSET WITH TEMPERATURES SITTING IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
30S. BUT AS DYNAMIC COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN TAKES PLACE BY LATE
MORNING/ AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A RAPID TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AND
BECOMING HEAVY. AND...DUE THE DEEP CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE IN THE 982-
985MB RANGE...GRADIENT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 MPH...WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...COULD
BE LOOKING AT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DONT THINK WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE RIVER. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE IN THE
3 TO 8 INCH RANGE WITH A LOT OF BLOWING. AS SUCH...DECIDED TO HOIST
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR THE MORE OPEN WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST
IA FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST LOW TRACKS.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW OVERALL
DRY CONDITIONS BUT HAVE TEMPERATURES BACKSLIDING ONCE AGAIN AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRAGS COLDER ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR INTO THE REGION.
PLAN ON HIGHS STARTING OFF FRIDAY IN THE 20S...THEN IN THE TEENS BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014

LOW MVFR CIGS BEEN STUBBORN TO CLEAR KLSE...BUT ON THE DOORSTEP PER
LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAP13 RH FIELDS DO PRESS IT
EAST...AND EXPECT SKC BY 06Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUE...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SFC
BOUNDARY. NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS FRONT...MOSTLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. COULD GET SOME LOW SCT...POTENTIALLY A FEW HOURS
BKN025. GOING TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW. WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE FOR WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

THU COULD SEE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BLAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH PROLONGED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD
RESULT. WINDS PICK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON - WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOW
VSBYS FROM BLSN AT KRST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY AS STORM
TRACK IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ079-088-096.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR IAZ011-030.

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
557 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-190000-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
557 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER WINTER STORM COULD IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX. THE
STORM TRACK IS UNCERTAIN...MAKING IT TOO EARLY TO DISCERN
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. MORE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PRECIPITATION REPORTS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A WEBINAR MAY BE SCHEDULED EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY FOR THE
THURSDAY STORM SYSTEM.

RIECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1233 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 AM     SNOW             MERRILLAN               44.45N 90.84W
02/18/2014  M3.5 INCH        JACKSON            WI   COOP OBSERVER

            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS OBSERVER LOCATION
            MERRILLAN

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM