Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A COLD FRONT WAS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS FEEDING STORM
PRODUCTION...WITH AN AXIS OF 3K J/KG MUCAPE HELPING THE STORMS
ALONG. THE STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS PAST
DAYBREAK...FOCUSING MORE INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI WHERE THE
NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CO-LOCATE WITH UPGLIDE ON THE
305-315 K ISENTROPIC SFCS. RAP13/HRRR/HOPWRF MODEL RUNS PUSH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15Z.

LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SAGGING BOUNDARY...BUT LIKELY EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHWARD.
KEY PLAYERS INCLUDE...

1) SURFACE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT THAT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTHERN IA LATE
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAKING UP A MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN-CENTRAL ILL ON TUE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WEAK AND MOSTLY ZONAL TO BROAD RIDGING...NOT A LOT OF IMPETUS FOR
THE FRONT TO MOVE. IT SHOULD FINALLY GET A PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

2) LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NAM/GFS FOCUS THE NOSE OF THE
850 MB JET AND MAIN PUSH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
NEB/WESTERN IA TONIGHT...TUE AND WED NIGHTS. EXPECT MCS ACTIVITY IN
THESE REGIONS...TRACKING EAST AROUND/ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT.

3) INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. AFTERNOON SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4K
J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
INSTABILITY WEAKER AND ELEVATED NORTH OF THERE...WITH NOT ALL THAT
MUCH INDICATED VIA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

FOR WIND SHEAR...THE DEEPEST AND STRONGEST CONTINUES TO LIE IN THE
COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...DISPLACED FROM THE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY.

THE LIKELY RESULT FROM THIS IS THAT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIMITED. CERTAINLY COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT CURRENT SCENARIO DOESN/T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE HEAVY RAIN
IMPACTS. MORE ON THAT IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

OVERALL...MOST OF THE RAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR NORTHEAST IA-SOUTHWEST
WI TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS IN EASTERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
IOWA. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS LINE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS GOING AS THEY TRACK TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITY LIKELY DROPPING DOWN TO IFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WARM CLOUD DEPTHS REMAIN IN THE 3.5-4KFT RANGE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH PWS GENERALLY FROM 1.5 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. FAVORABLE
FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE WEST-EAST RUNNING STATIONARY FRONT
MEANS TRAINING STORMS...AND COULD RESULT IN ROUNDS OF STORMS ACROSS
THE SAME LOCATIONS. WHERE THE BOUNDARY LIES IS KEY TO THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SHIFTED IT A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...TAKING THE MAIN AXIS FOR HEAVY RAIN SOUTH. HOWEVER...KICKER
SHORTWAVE FOR THU WILL FIRE SHOWERS/STORMS...AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE
LIKELY LOCALLY. OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR RIVER RISES AND FLASH
FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS/REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LOOKS A
BIT LESS. STILL...NOT CONVINCED THERE IS NO THREAT AND TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....RIECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
916 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-251200-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
916 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW
STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE ITS
UNCERTAIN IF ANY DAY WILL HOLD AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...ANY
STRONGER STORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...
REPEATED SOAKINGS COULD RESULT IN RIVER RISES OR POSSIBLY FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

HALBACH/RIECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
127 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 AM     HAIL             RUDD                    43.13N 92.90W
08/25/2014  E0.25 INCH       FLOYD              IA   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

BOYNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
137 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ094-095-250715-
FLOYD-WINNESHIEK-FAYETTE-MITCHELL-HOWARD-CHICKASAW-FILLMORE-MOWER-
137 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN FLOYD...WESTERN
WINNESHIEK...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...EASTERN MITCHELL...HOWARD...
CHICKASAW...SOUTHERN FILLMORE AND SOUTHEASTERN MOWER COUNTIES...

AT 137 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIME SPRINGS TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
CHARLES CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LIME SPRINGS AROUND 145 AM CDT.
  PRESTON AND HARMONY AROUND 200 AM CDT.
  NEW HAMPTON AND CANTON AROUND 205 AM CDT.
  FREDERICKSBURG AND LANESBORO AROUND 210 AM CDT.
  LAWLER...PROTIVIN...WAUCOMA AND JERICO AROUND 215 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4361 9252 4380 9173 4291 9209 4291 9290
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 249DEG 38KT 4352 9236 4297 9269

HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
145 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     HAIL             LE ROY                  43.51N 92.51W
08/25/2014  E1.00 INCH       MOWER              MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KAAL-TV VIEWER

&&

BOYNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
153 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WIZ029-034-250745-
CLARK-JACKSON-
153 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CLARK AND NORTHERN
JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 153 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLACK
RIVER FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BLACK RIVER FALLS AROUND 205 AM CDT.
  HATFIELD AROUND 210 AM CDT.
  NEILLSVILLE AROUND 225 AM CDT.
  SHORTVILLE AROUND 230 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE THE MAJESTIC PINES
CASINO...ALMA CENTER...HIGHWAY 95 AND 73 AND SIDNEY.

LAT...LON 4423 9115 4425 9115 4425 9116 4441 9116
      4466 9056 4442 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0653Z 245DEG 40KT 4437 9102

HALBACH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
244 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WIZ033-034-041-042-250815-
LA CROSSE-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-MONROE-
244 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LA CROSSE...SOUTHEASTERN
TREMPEALEAU...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND WESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 244 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ONALASKA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA CROSSE...ONALASKA...HOLMEN...SPARTA...FRENCH ISLAND...WEST
SALEM...TREMPEALEAU...TOWN OF HOLLAND...BANGOR...NORTH BEND...
SOUTHERN FORT MC COY...CATARACT...BRICE PRAIRIE...LEON...BURNS...
IRVING...NORWALK...ROCKLAND...MELROSE AND RIDGEVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4386 9054 4373 9119 4373 9125 4378 9124
      4379 9126 4385 9128 4392 9136 4394 9136
      4397 9141 4400 9143 4422 9083
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 245DEG 54KT 4391 9118

HALBACH