Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
307 AM MON AUG 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MON AUG 4 2014

RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
IN RESPONSE TO A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK 850-700MB
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN.

EXPECTING A GENERAL UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AS
THAT TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND 0-3KM MLCAPE INCREASES INTO
THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM BULK
SHEAR STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 10-15KT SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS...COULD BE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS/RAINFALL RATES.
DESPITE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE
80S.

LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND MID-LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY WILL DRAW
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE BACK INTO AREA ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LIFT AHEAD OF
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. IN
FACT...THE NAM/GFS PRODUCING A FAIRLY HEAVY WEST TO EAST BAND OF
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS AS
THE ECMWF STILL A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH THIS
FORCING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MON AUG 4 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
ONTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI WEDNESDAY AS THAT 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
SIGNAL PERSISTS.

MID-LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD MORE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS BEING
SAID...THE GFS STILL WANTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF STAYS DRY.
MAINTAINED A SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN THIS TIME
FRAME. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY UNDER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO ALMOST I-90. JUST NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING...
WHICH COULD COME INTO THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE VCSH INCLUDED. LIGHTNING IS VERY SPORADIC SO NO
VCTS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. SHOULD ANY OF THESE SHOWERS IMPACT THE
TAF SITES...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD MOSTLY FAVOR FOG FORMATION GIVEN
DEWPOINTS ALREADY RELATIVELY HIGH AROUND 65F. IN FACT...THE VALLEY
AT LSE IS QUITE HAZY. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR BR FOR
09-14Z. ADDITIONALLY...THE CLOUDS THAT WERE COMING INTO MN AT 00Z
ARE THINNING SOME...THUS THE CONCERN STILL EXISTS FOR LIFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES FROM VALLEY FOG AT LSE BETWEEN 10-12Z. A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM 14-17Z WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR...THEN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD FIRE NEAR THE TAF SITES ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THEIR
COVERAGE HAVE LEFT THE VCSH. CERTAINLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD
IMPACT THE TAF SITES BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT 6 HOURS OR
SO OF VCTS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-041100-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY...THEN MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN WHETHER ANY
OF THESE STORMS WOULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY HAIL
REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

WETENKAMP/SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
340 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

WIZ029-040915-
CLARK-
340 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY...

AT 338 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR HUMBIRD...OR 11 MILES
WEST OF NEILLSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND PEA SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIDNEY...HIGHWAY 10 AND 12...WILDCAT MOUND...SNYDER LAKE...HIGHWAY 10
AND BALD PEAK ROAD AND THE HIGHGROUND.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4443 9068 4449 9080 4451 9080 4451 9084
      4456 9092 4462 9092 4465 9090 4464 9058
TIME...MOT...LOC 0838Z 283DEG 6KT 4458 9082

WETENKAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
405 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

WIZ029-034-040930-
CLARK-JACKSON-
405 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CLARK AND
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 401 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEILLSVILLE TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
HUMBIRD...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
PONDING OF WATER AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NEILLSVILLE AROUND 415 AM CDT.
  HATFIELD AROUND 425 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE ALMA CENTER...
HIGHWAY 95 AND 73...SIDNEY AND HIGHWAY 10 AND 12.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4434 9059 4444 9102 4468 9088 4463 9049
TIME...MOT...LOC 0901Z 280DEG 19KT 4461 9071 4444 9090

WETENKAMP