Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS La Crosse, WI

554 
WWUS53 KARX 170206
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
906 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

IAC043-170245-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-140617T0245Z/
CLAYTON IA-
906 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR CLAYTON COUNTY...

AT 905 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR POSTVILLE TO NEAR STRAWBERRY POINT...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. TORNADOES ARE ALSO 
         POSSIBLE.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  STRAWBERRY POINT AND VOLGA AROUND 910 PM CDT.
  EDGEWOOD...MONONA AND FARMERSBURG AROUND 920 PM CDT.
  MARQUETTE AND MCGREGOR AROUND 935 PM CDT.
  GUTTENBERG AROUND 940 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
HARDIN...LUANA...NORTH BUENA VISTA...ST. OLAF AND GARBER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND 
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN 
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THESE STORMS MAY 
CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

LAT...LON 4308 9160 4308 9118 4303 9118 4299 9115
      4291 9115 4288 9110 4283 9110 4283 9108
      4274 9106 4265 9089 4265 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 267DEG 41KT 4307 9162 4266 9161 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT
THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE GROWING CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH REPEATED
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

A WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM
NEAR SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA TO NEAR
DAVENPORT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD APPROACH THE INTERSTATE
90 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CONVECTION  HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA HAS DIED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO MAKE ITS NORTHWARD SHIFT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM  COMPLEX
WILL WORK EAST WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY FIRING OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON  AND EVENING ENHANCING THE 0-3 KM
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY  IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. 0-6 KM SHEAR FURTHER WEST
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLIER ON BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE OR A LINE WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT IT THE NEIGHBORHOOD AND INCREASING
0-1 KM SHEAR THIS EVENING THERE IS A CONCERN FOR A FEW TORNADOES
IN THE LINE IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE BOWING
STRUCTURES. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ALSO THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER
URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL CERTAINLY PRIME SOME LOCATIONS
FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE COMING DAYS. THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS STRONG INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
QUESTION  IS WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT SET UP AND WHERE WILL THE
STORM INITIATE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT AND 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUE
IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ALSO...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4KM AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH AN THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. A TROUGH APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SHEAR
ISN/T AS STRONG BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
MORE OF A CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING  WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO FINALLY TURN A LITTLE
DRIER AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL AND THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH RST AND LSE THIS EVENING.
STRONG WINDS AND SUB-IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS THEY COME
THROUGH. MAIN TIMING AT RST IS BETWEEN 00-03Z AND AT LSE BETWEEN
02-05Z. AFTER A BREAK LATER TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING, MORE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS THIS WEEK. HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEED...ESPECIALLY AFTER TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
350 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-172100-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
350 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BETWEEN 5 PM AND
MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 7 PM TO 2 AM EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH THE MAIN THREATS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE
THE MAIN THREATS. SOME DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DETAILS ON THIS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN.

FLASH FLOODING FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN IF THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULE AT THIS TIME.

DTJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
824 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW ROCHESTER         43.98N 92.49W
06/16/2014  M3.32 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
825 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MANTORVILLE             44.07N 92.75W
06/16/2014  M2.39 INCH       DODGE              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
829 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE ROCK DELL         43.89N 92.64W
06/16/2014                   OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE ROADS IN THE
            SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY.

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
833 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     CALMAR                  43.18N 91.86W
06/16/2014                   WINNESHIEK         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
834 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW SIMPSON           43.92N 92.48W
06/16/2014  M2.02 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   COOP OBSERVER

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
838 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N STEWARTVILLE        43.90N 92.49W
06/16/2014  M59 MPH          OLMSTED            MN   ASOS

            GUST OCCURRED WELL AFTER MAIN STORMS PASSED...BUT OTHER
            SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL IN THE AREA.

&&

AJ