Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS La Crosse, WI

057 
WWUS53 KARX 182045
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IAC089-182054-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-140818T2100Z/
HOWARD IA-
345 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4330 9199 4348 9201 4350 9173 4328 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 271DEG 18KT 4340 9195 

$$

IAC191-182100-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-140818T2100Z/
WINNESHIEK IA-
345 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WINNESHIEK COUNTY...

AT 344 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
RIDGEWAY...OR 8 MILES EAST OF CRESCO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DECORAH AROUND 400 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HIGHWAY
52 AND COUNTY W 34...COUNTY ROADS W 20 AND A 34...HESPER...BLUFFTON
AND LOCUST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4330 9199 4348 9201 4350 9173 4328 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 271DEG 18KT 4340 9195 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

ROGERS

414 
WWUS53 KARX 182055
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
355 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IAC191-182100-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-140818T2100Z/
WINNESHIEK IA-
355 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WINNESHIEK COUNTY...

AT 354 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DECORAH...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED ONE INCH HAIL 1 MILE 
         SOUTH OF BLUFFTON AT 352 PM. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN WINNESHIEK COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
HIGHWAY 52 AND COUNTY W 34...COUNTY ROADS W 20 AND A 34...HESPER...
BLUFFTON AND LOCUST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4330 9192 4348 9195 4350 9173 4328 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 273DEG 22KT 4338 9188 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON RAIN TONIGHT AS UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. A
CLOSED LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THIS WAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. WITH WEAKER IMPULSES CIRCULATING
AROUND THE LOW...RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

19Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER WAVE SPINNING INTO NORTHWEST MN...
HEADING SOUTHEAST. PLUME OF 70+ LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS FROM EASTERN
IA UP INTO WESTERN WI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. ACTIVE
CONVECTION ONGOING FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WI...AND NEW
ACTIVITY GOING UP OVER NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHEAST MN. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BREAK
FOR A TIME EARLY THIS EVENING AFTER THIS FIRST INITIAL BAND.
PRECIPITATBLE WATER SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH 3500+
METERS. ANY STORMS WILL BE PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DCAPE
SUGGESTS WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES PLACE MID-WEEK WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. EVENTUAL RAIN CHANCES
LATER THIS WEEK...AND THE DEGREE OF WARMING...ARE TIED TO HOW THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THESE
IMPULSES...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE OVERALL
TREND OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME TO FRUITION. IT HAS
BEEN DRY LATELY...BUT THESE STORMS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS WE START TO ACCUMULATE SOME RAINFALL ON OUR RECENTLY
DRY SOILS...WILL A FLOOD WATCH EVENTUALLY BE NECESSARY?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EACH OF THESE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES. THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 18.19Z AND 18.23Z...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND BETWEEN 19.01Z AND 19.04Z. CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE 2500 TO
3500 FOOT RANGE THROUGH 19.08Z...AND THEN BECOME LIFR/IFR THROUGH
19.15Z...AND THEN MVFR AGAIN. A FEW OF THE NAM AND SREF SOLUTIONS
ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE
FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS ABOVE 950 MB...THINKING
THAT THIS MAY JUST END UP BEING MORE STRATUS THAN FOG.
HOWEVER...STILL WENT WITH MVFR FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

SO FAR IN AUGUST...OVERALL IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA ADDED TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY CATEGORY PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
BUT AS WE SAW LAST NIGHT...SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS CAN RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND ELEVATED PRECIPITATBLE WATER
AMOUNTS POINT TO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS TREND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL. DRY CONDITIONS
INITIALLY WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THIS WATER TO BE UTILIZED BY THE
SOIL AND REPLENTISHING STORAGE AREAS. BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE RAINFALL OVER THE COMING DAYS AND PERHAPS CONSIDER THE NEED
FOR A FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED RAINFALL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...MW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
415 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-191200-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
415 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLAN ON THE STRONGEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. IN
ADDITION...A FEW STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHTNING
THE MAIN HAZARD.

AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN SPOTS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...ANY
FLOODING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WIND REPORTS FROM THE STORMS WOULD
BE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

AJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
311 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IAZ009>011-MNZ088-095-096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-
182215-
HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-WINONA-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-TAYLOR-CLARK-
BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-VERNON-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...WINONA...MEDFORD...
NEILLSVILLE...BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA/TOMAH...
MAUSTON...VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER
311 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THROUGH 5 PM...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

BOYNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     HAIL             1 N BONAIR              43.42N 92.20W
08/18/2014  E1.00 INCH       HOWARD             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&
DB