River Flood Warning 34, NWS La Crosse, WI

561 
WGUS83 KARX 171502
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT HAS LED TO RAPID RISES ON DOBBINS AND
TURTLE CREEKS IN AUSTIN. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. 

RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO 
FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

MNC157-WIC011-171532-
/O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-140617T1502Z/
/WABM5.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA.
* AT  9:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.

$$

MNC099-180601-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-140618T0941Z/
/DOBM5.1.ER.140617T0808Z.140617T1330Z.140617T1541Z.NO/
1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN 2NE.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...DROPPING BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY THIS MORNING.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4366 9297 4368 9296 4373 9287 4374 9277 4369 9279

$$

MNC099-180601-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-140619T0051Z/
/TRCM5.1.ER.140617T1656Z.140618T0000Z.140618T0651Z.NO/
1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TURTLE CREEK NEAR AUSTIN 3NW.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 11.0 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE CREEK IN 
  AUSTIN. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305

$$

257 
WGUS83 KARX 172127
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
427 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND
WABASAHA...TURTLE AND DOBINS CREEK AROUND AUSTIN...AND CEDAR RIVER
AT CHARLES CITY.

RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO 
FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

MNC157-WIC011-181227-
/O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0036.140620T1200Z-140624T1200Z/
/WABM5.1.ER.140620T1200Z.140620T1200Z.140623T1800Z.NO/
427 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY JUNE 24...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  3:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...THE RIVER AFFECTS LOW LYING AREAS.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4445 9207 4442 9200 4435 9192 4433 9200 4439 9209

$$

IAC067-181227-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0035.140618T1142Z-140619T1700Z/
/CCYI4.1.ER.140618T1142Z.140618T1800Z.140618T2300Z.NO/
427 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY.
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT  3:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 12.5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...BARRICADING OF STREETS BEGIN AND THE 
  INTERSECTION OF RIVERSIDE AND ILLINOIS STREETS MAY BE FLOODED. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC099-181227-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-140619T0001Z/
/DOBM5.1.ER.140617T0808Z.140618T0000Z.140618T0601Z.NO/
427 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN 2NE.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 13.5 FEET THIS 
  EVENING.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4366 9297 4368 9296 4373 9287 4374 9277 4369 9279

$$

MNC099-181227-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-140619T0100Z/
/TRCM5.1.ER.140617T1848Z.140618T0000Z.140618T0700Z.NO/
427 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TURTLE CREEK NEAR AUSTIN 3NW.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  3:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.8 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE CREEK IN 
  AUSTIN. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305

$$

665 
WGUS83 KARX 180150
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
850 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE CEDAR RIVER
AROUND AUSTIN DOWN TO CHARLES CITY. THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND
WABASAHA IS EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL.

RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO 
FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

MNC157-WIC011-181650-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0036.140620T2327Z-140622T1232Z/
/WABM5.1.ER.140620T2327Z.140621T0000Z.140621T1832Z.NO/
850 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA.
* FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 12.0 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...THE RIVER AFFECTS LOW LYING AREAS.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4445 9207 4442 9200 4435 9192 4433 9200 4439 9209

$$

MNC099-181650-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-140619T0218Z/
/LANM5.1.ER.140617T2345Z.140618T0600Z.140618T0818Z.NO/
850 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT LANSING.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.5 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4385 9298 4378 9293 4372 9295 4372 9297 4385 9304

$$

IAC067-181649-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0035.140618T1100Z-140620T0300Z/
/CCYI4.1.ER.140618T1100Z.140619T0000Z.140619T0900Z.NO/
850 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY.
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING 
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 13.4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...BARRICADING OF STREETS BEGIN AND THE 
  INTERSECTION OF RIVERSIDE AND ILLINOIS STREETS MAY BE FLOODED. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC099-181649-
/O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-140619T0001Z/
/DOBM5.1.ER.140617T0808Z.140618T0200Z.140618T0601Z.NO/
850 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN 2NE.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 13.1 FEET THIS 
  EVENING.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4366 9297 4368 9296 4373 9287 4374 9277 4369 9279

$$

MNC099-181649-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-140619T0700Z/
/TRCM5.1.ER.140617T1848Z.140618T0045Z.140618T1300Z.NO/
850 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TURTLE CREEK NEAR AUSTIN 3NW.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...DROPPING BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE CREEK IN 
  AUSTIN. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305

$$

130 
WGUS83 KARX 180332
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1032 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.THE RIVER GAGE READING AT DOBBINS CREEK NEAR AUSTIN HAS FALLEN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE...THUS THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO 
FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

MNC099-180402-
/O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-140619T0001Z/
/DOBM5.N.ER.140617T0808Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1032 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN 2NE.
* AT  9:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4366 9297 4368 9296 4373 9287 4374 9277 4369 9279

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
332 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA...SEVERE STORM AND
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/BOW ECHO WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED MCV TRACKING INTO EASTERN WI/NORTHERN IL/LK MI. ANOTHER
COMPLEX REMAINED OVER NORTHEAST NEB TO CENTRAL IA...ANCHORED BY THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE INTO/OVER THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM
RAIN NORTHEAST OF THE SECOND COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FCST AREA WITH RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS/HR.

NO BIG PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 17.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GFS WITH
ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF SOME 5F TOO HIGH ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...WHICH DOES IMPACT ITS CAPE PROGS TODAY.
SOLUTIONS REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE LARGER SCALE AND MID LEVEL
DETAILS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LOW/TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PROBLEM IS THE DEVIL
IN THE LOWER LEVEL/MESO SCALE DETAILS THRU TONIGHT...AND MUCH OF THE
WEEK. GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS AND
THEIR IMPACTS ON CONVECTION IN THE AREA...SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...ELEMENTS DRIVING THE FCST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT DROVE THE MON/MON NIGHT FCST. ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY
PUSHED SOUTH OF I-80. 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION ACROSS IA EXPECTED
TO WANE. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OF THE NEXT TRACKABLE SHORTWAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND SFC WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THRU THE PLAINS WOULD THEN LIFT THE BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN IA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PUSHING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES NORTHEASTWARD...INTO/OVER THIS BOUNDARY.
APPEARS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/ EVENING...BUT WHERE DEPENDS ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPPING/CIN QUITE LOW NEAR/NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
NUDGE/LIFT BY THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE BOUNDARY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING NORMALIZED CAPE
VALUES IN THE .2 TO .4 RANGE...INDICATING /FAT/ CAPE PROFILES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND SHEAR PROFILES...WITH THE BULK OF
THE SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER WOULD AGAIN INDICATE EVOLUTION TO A
LINE OF STORMS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE
DETAILS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WHERE THE BOUNDARY...AND EVENTUAL
GREATER SHRA/TSRA AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES END UP AND ONLY AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
APPEARS HIGHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH 1/2
OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE MORE LIKELY BOUNDARY LOCATION LATE
TODAY. DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ONGOING SHRA/TSRA THRU THE
MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY CAN LIFT NORTH THRU THE DAY. IF IT
DOES NOT...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THRU TONIGHT WOULD END UP SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WILL TREND FCST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT TOWARD
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS PENDING RESOLUTION OF THE MESO-SCALE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WITH
SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS THRU THE PERIOD.

18.00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WED/WED NIGHT AS HGTS RISE OVER
THE REGION...AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LESSER AGREEMENT THU/THU NIGHT AS THIS LOW LIFTS TO NEAR
THE ND/MAN/SASKAT BORDER BY 12Z FRI. AT THE SFC...DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR A LOW TO LIFT INTO EASTERN SD BY WED EVENING...THEN DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND THE
TRAILING FRONT/SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THU/THU
NIGHT. THESE DIFFERENCES BY LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT HAVE
IMPACTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND
WHERE THE GREATER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...AND SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL... WOULD END UP IN ANY ONE PERIOD. FCST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA WED MORNING WITH A
BREAK FROM THE SHRA/TSRA FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY...MUCH LIKE
TODAY. SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOVED SOUTH/WEST OF THE
AREA. BOUNDARY REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR LIFTING LATER IN THE DAY/WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN...PUSHING A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING AGAIN SHOWING MINIMAL CIN/CAPPING AND NORMALIZED
CAPES OF 0.2 TO 0.4...FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND LARGE
HAIL. RISING HGTS OVER THE AREA WED/WED NIGHT BUT AREA WEST OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. NOT AS MUCH OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS LATE WED/WED NIGHT...BUT FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFLUENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVE
TILTED BY 12Z THU. DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK PER SWODY2 LOOKS GOOD. ANY
TSRA WED/WED NIGHT WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE HEAVY
RAINS...BUT WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF THE HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

THE NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE
ACROSS MN THU/THU NIGHT...PUSHING A NORTH-SOUTH SFC TROUGH FRONT
EAST INTO THE AREA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. FALLING HGTS AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH TO AID LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A LULL IN SHRA/TSRA FOR A TIME WED...
CONTINUED 50-70 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FCST
AREA WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT. DEPENDING ON TIMING/
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THU/RESULTING CLOUD COVER...HIGHS IN
THE FCST GRIDS THAT DAY MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD...CONTINUING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FRI
THRU SUN...TEMPERATURES.

REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG 18.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR THE MID
LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER
FRI THRU SAT NIGHT THEN DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUN.
HGTS RISE MON AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NOAM. NOT A
LOT OF TIME SPENT IN THE DETAILS OF DAY 4-7 BUT FCST CONFIDENCE
APPEARS TO BE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

THE TROUGH MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER LOOKS TO PUSH A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS THE REGION CENTERED ON FRI
NIGHT...FOR CONTINUED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. DETAILS OF ANY SEVERE
THREAT WITH THESE POTENTIAL TSRA FAR FROM CLEAR. MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUN
DROPS A SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL COOLING ACROSS MN/IA/WI FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THAT DAY. MONDAY TRENDS TO BE A DRY
DAY AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/RISING HGTS ALOFT BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN PLENTY OF DETAIL/TIMING DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY
BY SAT...DID NOT STRAY FROM THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/
LOWS FOR DAYS 4-7. TEMPS CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THRU SAT...THEN
TREND TOWARD NORMAL SUN/MON AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WOULD
START TO TAKE OVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA ON INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN.
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SPOTS WHERE CEILINGS
DROP DOWN TO AROUND 2KFT IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS THE COMPLEX
DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH...THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END AND CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR REGION-WIDE. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS OR IF IT WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT A VCTS IN THERE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AT RST AND
AFTER 00Z AT LSE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COME THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. REPEATED
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS
WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING/
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEED
THROUGH THE WEEK AS DETAILS ON ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TSRA/LOCATION
OF GREATER RISK OF MORE HEAVY RAINS BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....RRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
446 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-181000-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
446 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA CAN PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREATS WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINS.

FLASH FLOODING FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN IF THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL
REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULE AT THIS TIME.

RRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1121 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLATTEVILLE             42.74N 90.48W
06/16/2014                   GRANT              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON HOUSES. WINDOWS BLOWN
            OUT WITH ONE INJURY FROM FLYING GLASS.

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1132 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 ENE FRIENDSHIP        44.02N 89.66W
06/16/2014                   ADAMS              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON STATE HIGHWAY 21 3 MILES WEST
            OF THE WAUSHARA COUNTY LINE

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     AUSTIN                  43.67N 92.97W
06/16/2014  E60 MPH          MOWER              MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     DODGE CENTER            44.03N 92.85W
06/16/2014  E60 MPH          DODGE              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0729 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW GENOA             44.12N 92.64W
06/16/2014  M65 MPH          OLMSTED            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL ALSO FELL.

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE DEXTER            43.72N 92.68W
06/16/2014  M66 MPH          MOWER              MN   MESONET

0733 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHARLES CITY            43.07N 92.67W
06/16/2014                   FLOYD              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A STOP LIGHT WAS BLOWN OVER IN CHARLES CITY.

0736 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW KASSON            44.03N 92.77W
06/16/2014  M50 MPH          DODGE              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0741 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW SARATOGA          43.38N 92.50W
06/16/2014  M71 MPH          HOWARD             IA   MESONET

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LIME SPRINGS            43.45N 92.28W
06/16/2014                   HOWARD             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW SIMPSON           43.92N 92.48W
06/16/2014  M2.02 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   COOP OBSERVER

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW SIMPSON           43.92N 92.48W
06/16/2014                   OLMSTED            MN   COOP OBSERVER

            8 INCH TREE SNAPPED OFF JUST ABOVE THE
            GROUND

0809 PM     FLOOD            MANTORVILLE             44.07N 92.76W
06/16/2014                   DODGE              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING AND THE CITY RETENTION POND
            WAS OVERFLOWING.

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N STEWARTVILLE        43.90N 92.49W
06/16/2014  M59 MPH          OLMSTED            MN   ASOS

            GUST OCCURRED WELL AFTER MAIN STORMS
            PASSED...BUT OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
            STILL IN THE AREA.

0819 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW ROCHESTER         43.98N 92.49W
06/16/2014  M3.32 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

0821 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MANTORVILLE             44.07N 92.75W
06/16/2014  M2.39 INCH       DODGE              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0825 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE ROCK DELL         43.89N 92.64W
06/16/2014                   OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE ROADS IN THE
            SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY.

0828 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W FREDERICKSBURG      42.97N 92.21W
06/16/2014                   CHICKASAW          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN ON U.S. HIGHWAY 18

0829 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     CALMAR                  43.18N 91.86W
06/16/2014                   WINNESHIEK         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0851 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N FESTINA             43.14N 91.87W
06/16/2014                   WINNESHIEK         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 76

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTGATE                42.77N 92.00W
06/16/2014                   FAYETTE            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BARNS BLOWN DOWN WITH TIN ACROSS THE ROAD.

0856 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S BRAINARD            42.91N 91.70W
06/16/2014                   FAYETTE            IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CATTLE BARN COLLAPSED WITH AROUND 150 CATTLE
            TRAPPED IN THE DEBRIS ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF
            WADENA.

0856 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTGATE                42.77N 92.00W
06/16/2014                   FAYETTE            IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN
            AND DAMAGE TO A CHURCH ROOF IN TOWN. DAMAGE
            ALSO OCCURRED TO A BARN WEST OF TOWN ON
            STATE HIGHWAY 3 WITH CATTLE TRAPPED INSIDE
            THE BARN.

0857 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 ENE FRANKVILLE        43.19N 91.62W
06/16/2014                   WINNESHIEK         IA   EMERGENCY MANAGER

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S LA CROSSE           43.82N 91.23W
06/16/2014                   LA CROSSE          WI   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR UW LA CROSSE AND IN
            DOWNTOWN LA CROSSE

0924 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW RENOVA            43.72N 92.79W
06/16/2014                   MOWER              MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COUNTY HIGHWAY 20 UNDER WATER IN SEVERAL
            LOCATIONS SOUTH OF COUNTY HIGHWAY 2
            NORTHWEST OF DEXTER.

0934 PM     TSTM WND GST     COON VALLEY             43.70N 91.01W
06/16/2014  M65 MPH          VERNON             WI   FIRE DEPARTMENT/R

0942 PM     HAIL             STRAWBERRY POINT        42.68N 91.54W
06/16/2014  E1.75 INCH       CLAYTON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0948 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE BAGLEY            42.95N 91.07W
06/16/2014  M50 MPH          GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY HIGHWAYS X AND
            P.

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE SAINT MARYS       43.78N 90.63W
06/16/2014                   MONROE             WI   PUBLIC

            10 INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN

1016 PM     TSTM WND GST     HILLSBORO               43.65N 90.34W
06/16/2014  E60 MPH          VERNON             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

1022 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOSCOBEL                43.14N 90.70W
06/16/2014                   GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            TREES BLOWN DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

1039 PM     FLOOD            BOSCOBEL                43.14N 90.70W
06/16/2014                   GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            STREET FLOODING

1048 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S UNION               42.79N 90.51W
06/16/2014  M63 MPH          GRANT              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

1048 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW GEORGETOWN        42.61N 90.53W
06/16/2014  M70 MPH          GRANT              WI   FIRE DEPARTMENT/R

1049 PM     FLOOD            LANCASTER               42.85N 90.71W
06/16/2014                   GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            STREET FLOODING.

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLATTEVILLE             42.74N 90.48W
06/16/2014                   GRANT              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON HOUSES. WINDOWS BLOWN
            OUT WITH ONE INJURY FROM FLYING GLASS.

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 ENE FRIENDSHIP        44.02N 89.66W
06/16/2014                   ADAMS              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON STATE HIGHWAY 21 3 MILES WEST
            OF THE WAUSHARA COUNTY LINE

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1207 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

IAZ010-011-029-030-MNZ088-096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-
061-170900-
WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-WINONA-HOUSTON-TAYLOR-CLARK-
BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-VERNON-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...OELWEIN...WINONA...
MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE...BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...
SPARTA/TOMAH...MAUSTON...VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...
RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
1207 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...STRONG WINDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT...

AS THE RAIN COMES TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME STRONG
WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME GUSTS OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 35
TO 50 MPH. THESE WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND COULD
CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL WIND DAMAGE.

HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1242 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      AUSTIN                  43.67N 92.98W
06/16/2014                   MOWER              MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS CLOSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
            EARLIER IN THE EVENING.

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
104 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLATTEVILLE             42.74N 90.48W
06/16/2014                   GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CARS FLIPPED OVER. 2ND STORY OF A HOUSE BLOWN OFF. SOME
            HOUSES FLATTENED AND SOME BUILDINGS COLLAPSED.

&&

HALBACH