River Flood Warning 26, NWS La Crosse, WI

110 
WGUS83 KARX 202144
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
444 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BLACK RIVER AROUND GALESVILLE IS
CANCELLED. WHILE THE RIVER IS NOT NOW EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS. 

RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO 
FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

WIC063-121-202214-
/O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-140524T0600Z/
/GALW3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
444 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BLACK RIVER NEAR GALESVILLE.
* AT  3:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH A VALUE OF 
  11.3 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES YET TODAY...
TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD THE SFC LOW/TROUGH FROM EASTERN ND TO
EASTERN NEB. WV IMAGERY DEPICTED A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST MN.
PER VAD WIND PROFILER DATA...THIS SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY PULLED THE
850-700MB TROUGH AXIS EAST TO NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER INTO EASTERN IA.
IR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DEEPER/COLDER CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVING NORTH/
EAST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG-PRODUCT IMAGERY/SFC
OBS SHOWING DRYING/CLEARING SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/
NORTHERN IA BEHIND THE 850-700MB TROUGH. AREA RADARS SHOWING BULK OF
THE SHRA/TSRA HAD LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WITH ONLY SPOTTY
-SHRA/-DZ LINGERING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE NOTED WITH 20.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS IS GFS
ABOUT 5F TO HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM
SOUTHEAST SD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. OTHERWISE INITIALIZATIONS LOOK
GOOD. SOLUTIONS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS OF THE EARLIER
RUNS WITH RATHER GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
AMONG ALL MODELS THRU 12Z WED. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE ON THE
GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TAIL OF THE NORTHEAST MN IMPULSE WAS SLIDING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SHRA ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA...IN SOME LOWER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT. ONCE IT PASSES...BULK
OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WITH
THE 925-700MB DRYING CONTINUING TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN THE POST SHORTWAVE PROGRESS OF THE DRYING/DECREASING
CLOUDS...REMOVED BULK OF LINGERING SHRA CHANCES THRU THE MORNING.
ATTENTION QUICKLY FOCUSES ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ENDS UP NEAR
THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPING
BOUNDARY ALREADY SHOWING UP IN SFC OBS AS A WEAK WIND
SHIFT/PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR A KMKE-KPDC-KOMA LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS
STRENGTHENS THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY PUSH IT SOUTH.
BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS DEW POINTS NEAR/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS WANT TO BRING 65-70F DEW POINTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE DEW POINTS
RESULT IN MUCAPES OF 2K-3K J/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...VS. 1K-2K J/KG IN THE ECMWF WITH MORE
REASONABLE LOWER 60S DEW POINTS. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING NOT UNREASONABLE BUT APPEARS CONDITIONAL ON THE DEW POINTS
AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP. SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING AND ITS OUTFLOWS WOULD DRIVE
THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

WITH A MILDER START...925MB TEMPS IN THE 20C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST THRU THE
MORNING...HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 LOOK QUITE
REASONABLE. COOLER AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THE CAN HIGH.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT
LOOKED GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA WED WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THU. HGTS RISE THU NIGHT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
NORTH- CENTRAL CONUS. FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FOR WED THRU THU
NIGHT FOR WHAT CONTINUES TO TREND AS A DRY/QUIET PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND CAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC.

THE GENERAL WEAK/BROAD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THRU THIS PERIOD
ALLOWS WEAK CAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED
THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR WED-THU NIGHT SHOWING A DRIER COLUMN OVER MN/IA/WI
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW/CAN HIGH...WITH PW VALUES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE +6CTO
+10C RANGE THRU THE PERIOD...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND THE DRIER AIRMASS...DIURNAL SWINGS OF 20 TO 25F WITH
HIGHS/LOWS NEAR NORMAL LOOK WELL TRENDED FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO
MON...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 20.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI/SAT AS
AMPLIFYING RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AHEAD OF STRONGER TROUGHING COMING THRU THE SOUTHERN TO NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS TOWARD FASTER OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE TROUGHING COMING THRU THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THIS ENERGY TO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SUN THEN TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST MON...BEING DRIVEN
BY THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS. FCST CONFIDENCE GOOD FRI/SAT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH/ RIDGING...THEN AVERAGE SUN/MON WITH PLENTY OF SMALLER SCALE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES IMPACTING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

CAN HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING ALOFT FROM THU/THU NIGHT CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA/S WEATHER FRI/SAT...WITH DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WITH THE BUILDING HGTS ALOFT AND SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN...THE SFC HIGH SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA AND
925-850MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON FRI LOOK WELL
TRENDED. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE SAT AS SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS SAT ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL ALSO WELL TRENDED. BY SUNDAY...STRONGER LOWER
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
AND EAST...INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESENT TRENDS HAVE THE
STRONGER OF THIS JUST WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA ON SUN...THEN
SPREAD THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/STRONGER TRANSPORT INTO/ACROSS
THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT/MON. SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN INCREASING
INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE MON PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOOK GOOD
AT THIS TIME. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SUN/MEMORIAL DAY
ALSO APPEAR WELL TRENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED
SOME FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE VISIBILITIES ARE IN
THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SHOW THE FOG AT BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH 14Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG
TO FORM TONIGHT AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A WIND TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED AND THE 20.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREAD REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 3 DEGREES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

WATER LEVELS ON THE MISSISSIPPI CONTINUE TO FALL FROM LANSING IA
NORTHWARD TO LAKE CITY MN. KLSE ALREADY BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE
WARNING WAS CANCELLED MON EVENING. MS RIVER AT KONA FALLING BELOW
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WARNING THERE WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE MS RIVER WAS
NEARING THE CREST AT MCGREGOR AND GUTTENBERG IA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....RRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
533 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

MNZ079-WIZ032>034-041-211100-
WABASHA-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-
533 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLACK RIVER NEAR BLACK RIVER
FALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLACK RIVER FROM BLACK RIVER
FALLS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD GALESVILLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ008-009-MNZ086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-042-211100-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-MONROE-
533 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ010-011-018-019-029-030-WIZ043-044-053>055-061-211100-
WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-JUNEAU-ADAMS-
VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
533 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN RIVER INTO SOUTHERN CLAYTON AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OSSEO                   44.58N 91.22W
05/20/2014  M2.60 INCH       TREMPEALEAU        WI   COOP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER STATION OSSEO /OSOW3/

0614 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE LUBLIN             45.11N 90.69W
05/20/2014  M1.63 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 3 NE LUBLIN /DMLW3/

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
658 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W NEILLSVILLE         44.56N 90.61W
05/20/2014  M2.25 INCH       CLARK              WI   COOP OBSERVER

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
710 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE STETSONVILLE      45.10N 90.30W
05/20/2014  M1.43 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION MEDFORD TAYLOR COUNTY AIRPORT
            /MDZ/ HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
746 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE LUBLIN             45.11N 90.69W
05/20/2014  M1.63 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 3 NE LUBLIN /DMLW3/

0715 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HATFIELD                44.41N 90.73W
05/20/2014  M1.12 INCH       JACKSON            WI   COOP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER STATION HATFIELD DAM /HABW3/

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
836 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N OWEN                44.98N 90.55W
05/20/2014  M1.46 INCH       CLARK              WI   COOP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER STATION OWEN 2N /OWEW3/

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM