Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1242 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LAYS FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DISSECT THE LOWER PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE UP THIS BOUNDARY TOMORROW...
GENERATING A DOOZY OF A WINTER STORM DOWN STATE. BUT WITH THE LOW
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...ONLY A LITTLE SNOW WILL BE
GENERATED UP NORTH. AS THIS STORM PULLS EAST LATER ON SUNDAY...IT
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS SEASON TO
DROP DOWN FROM CANADA...RETURNING THE REGION TO THE DEEP FREEZE
FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

BITTERLY COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN
IS EXPECT BY THE END OF WORK WEEK...WITH MILDER AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

NO UPDATES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. ONLY OTHER PRECIP OCCURRING IS SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING INTO PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA
COUNTY WHERE MOISTURE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
FOR LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
FALL ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THANKS TO BUILDING SUBSIDENCE AND MID
LEVEL DRYING. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE A FEW LAKE FLURRIES
ACROSS NW LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO CHIPPEWA COUNTY...BUT
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY MINOR (I.E. WELL UNDER AN
INCH). CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS NW OF THE
SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NW OF A LINE FROM APN TO CAD. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE. LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS OUR SE CWA HAS BEEN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE THUS FAR...AND
EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS FURTHER SE INTO THE SAGINAW BAY
AREA. SOME W/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MAINLY NRN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...BUT AGAIN EXPECT VERY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS (AN INCH OR LESS) THRU TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS
HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WELL...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

SYNOPSIS...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS 998MB LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A TRAILING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHEAST IOWA/
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE RELATIVELY BALMY IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WERE IN THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS
(ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO) ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA.  AN
ELONGATED BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/SOUTHEAST IOWA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 140+KT JET STREAK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  SOME SHALLOW
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH SOME HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL OCCURRING OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MULTIPLE BAND CONVECTION OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IMPACTING WESTERN
AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THIS EVENING AND CLEAR
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BEFORE SLOWING/STALLING EAST OF LAKE HURON
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS LOW THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  SO A COUPLE
OF FORECAST ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE MAINLY ISSUES WITH LAKE CONVECTION...WHILE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF WESTERN/NORTHERN EXTENT OF DEFORMATION SNOW
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE WILL BE THE
CONCERN.

TONIGHT...FIRST WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH ONGOING SNOW BAND OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING (THOUGH JUST
BARELY...HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THIS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED).
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT SOME FLURRIES OR POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS LARGE SCALE DRYING ABOVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
MAY CUT OFF MOISTURE AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10C.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO SPREAD INTO
CHIPPEWA COUNTY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW...PERHAPS FOCUSED BY A BIT
OF CONVERGENCE.  BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS TO GET OUT OF HAND
(AROUND AN INCH OR SO).  THINK CONDITIONS WILL BE LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN GIVEN DRY AIR AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  SO WILL GO WITH MAINLY FLURRIES FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF WITH COLD ADVECTION...
THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INITIALLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AS COLD
FRONT SLOWS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.

SUNDAY...DEFORMATION SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING...AND MAY BE PUSHING IN
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP
EDGE TO AREAS GETTING PRECIPITATION AND THOSE "MISSING OUT".
STRONGEST FORCING IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
AGAIN THIS IS A SITUATION WHERE A SMALL SHIFT IN TRACK WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.  WILL STILL KEEP DAYTIME
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE EAST OF A APN-HTL LINE.  NOT
GOING TO COMMIT TO ANY HEADLINES YET...EVEN WITH DTX BRINGING THEIR
WARNING RIGHT TO OUR DOORSTEP.  CAN EASILY RANGE FROM NOTHING TO A
WARNING EVENT (THIS WOULD INCLUDE SUNDAY NIGHT ACCUMULATIONS) AND
UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS ONE OF THOSE EVENTS WHERE TRENDS WILL BETTER
DICTATE HEADLINE POTENTIAL.  ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS CURRENT
NORTHERN LOWER SNOW BAND NOT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE US-10 CORRIDOR
AND HANGS ACROSS GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
WOULD OBVIOUSLY ADD TO POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS.  AS FOR EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...WILL CARRY A VERY GENERIC SNOW SHOWER FORECAST
WITH HIGHEST POPS AROUND WHITEFISH BAY.  TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO
GO FAR SUNDAY THOUGH WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
LAKE AS THE COLDEST AIR HORSESHOES AROUND THE UPPER LAKES THANKS TO
OVERALL AGGREGATE WARMING IMPACTS.  STILL ONLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

THE COLDEST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OF THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE AIR MASS THEN
MODERATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO MORE TOLERABLE CONDITIONS. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL TURN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EARLY ON IN
THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS BY TO OUR EAST
POSSIBLY BRINGING A BIT MORE SNOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT (PERHAPS A COUPLE OF INCHES). MEANWHILE...THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAW DOWN THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST...SUPPLYING A DECENT SHOT OF MOISTURE.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...LIFT FROM THE
TROUGH AND ADDED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK FROM NORTH INTO THE
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS
WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 15 TO POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 30
BELOW ZERO RANGE AS WELL AS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN FAVORED FLOW AREAS...WITH
THE MAIN LIMITATION BRING SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE. LOWS RANGING FROM
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 BELOW NORTH TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS
ONLY RISING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH A FEW SPOTS
STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
FLOW PRIMARILY OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND CONTINUED VERY
LOW WIND CHILLS. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
IN FAVORED FLOW AREAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 BELOW
INLAND TO 5 TO 10 BELOW NEAR THE LAKESHORES.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
DECREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO LESS LAKE EFFECT (STILL WESTERLY
FLOW). VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 15
BELOW RANGE WITH CONTINUED LOW WIND CHILLS INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PENCILED IN A DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. NOT
AS COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S THURSDAY...THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S ON
SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS THEN THE MILDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU SUNDAY
AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE THUMB AREA. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD SNOW UP THE
LAKE HURON COAST...IMPACTING APN AFTER 21Z WITH IFR VSBY/S
POSSIBLE. ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE OF THE STATE...NORTH FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME MORE ORGANIZED BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE CREATING SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

WEAKENING GRADIENT THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.  SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAN
UP THE CURRENT MESS OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  COULD BE PUSH GALES AGAIN
ON LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...JPB

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