Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

307 
WWUS43 KAPX 170216
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
916 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

MIZ015-171030-
/O.UPG.KAPX.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-141117T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0003.141117T0216Z-141117T1500Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
916 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* EXTREMELY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
  AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
  HOURS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST...NEW SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY
  MUCH GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
  EXPECTED BETWEEN BREVORT AND HESSEL WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO
  4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW
  BANDS.

* IMPACTS...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
  AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN
BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

MIZ016-171030-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-141117T1500Z/
EMMET-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PETOSKEY
916 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
  COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
  PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
  COAST...FROM JUST WEST OF HARBOR SPRINGS TO MACKINAC CITY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST...OVERNIGHT
  TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
  NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

&&

$$

MIZ008-171030-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-141117T1500Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
916 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE INTERSTATE
  75 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW SHOWER
  INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY NORTH OF M-28. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST...OVERNIGHT SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED....WITH LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
  PER HOUR WILL OCCUR WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW BANDS.

* IMPACTS...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
  NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

&&

$$

MIZ019-021-022-027-028-171030-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.A.0001.141118T0000Z-141119T0000Z/
CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING
916 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY 
  EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY 
  WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
  SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES 
  ARE POSSIBLE. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT 
  TIMES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY FALLING SNOW AND AREAS OF 
  BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OF
SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-171030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.141118T0000Z-141119T0000Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC
916 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY 
  EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY 
  WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
  SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE 
  POSSIBLE. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT 
  TIMES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY FALLING SNOW AND AREAS OF 
  BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

311 
WWUS43 KAPX 170906
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
406 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

MIZ016-171715-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0007.141118T0000Z-141119T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-141117T1500Z/
EMMET-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PETOSKEY
406 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THIS MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE 
  COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST 
  PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN 
  COAST...FROM JUST WEST OF HARBOR SPRINGS TO MACKINAC CITY. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
  ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

* ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
  THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WESTERLY
  WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LOW
  VISIBILITIES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES
  ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES
  DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY FALLING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING
  SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

MIZ019-021-022-171715-
/O.UPG.KAPX.LE.A.0001.141118T0000Z-141119T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0007.141118T0000Z-141119T0000Z/
CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD
406 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
  THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WESTERLY
  WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LOW
  VISIBILITIES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES
  ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES
  DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY FALLING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING
  SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

MIZ017-171715-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0007.141118T0000Z-141119T0000Z/
CHEBOYGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHEBOYGAN
406 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

* ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
  THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WESTERLY
  WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LOW
  VISIBILITIES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES
  ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES
  DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY FALLING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING
  SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.&&

$$

MIZ015-171500-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-141117T1500Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
406 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THIS MORNING...

* HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS
  ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
  HOURS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WILL
  OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY MUCH GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN BREVORT AND HESSEL WHERE
  SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR WITHIN SOME
  OF THE STRONGER SNOW BANDS.

* IMPACTS...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES
IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

MIZ008-171715-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.141118T0600Z-141119T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-141117T1500Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
406 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THIS MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE INTERSTATE
  75 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW SHOWER
  INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY NORTH OF M-28.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES
  ARE EXPECTED....WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL
  RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL OCCUR WITHIN SOME OF
  THE STRONGER SNOW BANDS.

* IMPACTS...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. 

* ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
  TONIGHT...THIS TIME TARGETING THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELT
  AREAS AROUND WHITEFISH POINT AND PARADISE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
  WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING
  SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES.

* IMPACTS...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING... ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$

MIZ027-028-171715-
/O.UPG.KAPX.LE.A.0001.141118T0000Z-141119T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.141118T0000Z-141119T0000Z/
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KALKASKA...GRAYLING
406 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS
  EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
  WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING
  SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES
  ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES
  DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING... ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-171715-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.141118T0000Z-141119T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.141118T0000Z-141119T0000Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC
406 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS
  EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
  WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING
  SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES
  ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES
  DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING... ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$

MIZ018-023-033-171715-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.141118T0000Z-141119T0000Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...LAKE CITY
406 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

* ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS
  EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
  WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING
  SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES
  ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES
  DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING... ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
204 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING...CONTRIBUTING TO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. ANOTHER UPSURGE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A SHOT OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

PER RADAR TRENDS...LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY UP ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT HAS DIMINISHED SOME OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF MAINLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH PER HOUR. THUS...HAVE
ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TO EXPIRE AS OF NOON...BUT
REPLACED WITH ADVISORIES UP THAT WAY AS SOME BEEFIER SNOWS
CONTINUE.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF LAKE EFFECT MORE INTO CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY.
WEDGE OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO THROTTLE LAKE
CONVECTION FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
LATE OVERNIGHT STILL EXPECTED TO SET UP A STRONG CONVERGENCE
SIGNAL ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHICH
WILL INTENSIFY LAKE CONVECTION AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
SOME SORT OF LAKE EFFECT HEADLINE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC/EMMET COUNTIES.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS LAKE CONVECTION GETS SCOOPED UP AND CARRIED INTO NW
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE COLD FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF QG-UPWARD FORCING
(EVIDENT PER IR ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS) ADVANCING NE UP THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ALONG NRN EDGE OF A COMPACT JET CORE
SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA AS EVIDENT ON RADAR BY ONE LAST
NARROW BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE AN INCH OR LESS...OUTSIDE
OF THE LAKE ENHANCED BANDS THAT IS.

BUT A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY IN THE TIP OF THE MITT/STRAITS. A
COUPLE OF PERSISTENT SW/WSW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED BANDS MOVING
ACROSS EMMET/CHEBOYGAN/CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED SOME
HEFTY SNOW TOTALS (RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 INCHES!) WITHIN A COUPLE
NARROW CORRIDORS...ONE CUTTING THROUGH THE HARBOR SPRINGS AREA AND
A SECOND SMALLER MAX THROUGH CHARLEVOIX COUNTY. SW FLOW HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THIS HOUR LARGELY ACROSS EMMET COUNTY
INTO THE STRAITS.

TODAY...SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE WILL WEAKEN/DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL
BRING A WEAKENING TREND TO THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT UP THROUGH THE
TIP OF THE MITT. BUT UNTIL THAT OCCURS...WILL MAINTAIN LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES UP AROUND THE STRAITS. OUTSIDE OF THAT AREA...CHIPPEWA
COUNTY HAS HAD MINIMAL SNOW EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE EXTREME SE
CORNER OF THE COUNTY. SAME STORY FOR MANISTEE UP THROUGH LEELANAU
COUNTY EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NRN TIP OF LEELANAU. WILL TRIM HEADLINES
OUT OF THOSE COUNTIES EARLY.

GOING FORWARD...HEADLINE MANAGEMENT WILL BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM
OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES THIS
MORNING...THEN A LULL...TO ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT (ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WITH THAT)...THEN
A RELATIVE LULL...THEN INTENSE LAKE SNOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY (ALREADY HAVE WATCHES UP FOR THAT). NOT TO MENTION
MARINE HEADLINES FOR ALL THE RECREATIONAL BOATERS OUT THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

GIVEN ESTIMATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND RADAR TRENDS...IN PARTICULAR
THE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING ENE FROM HARBOR SPRINGS...HAVE
UPGRADED EMMET CO TO A WARNING. EVEN THOUGH LES HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR...CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER FEW INCHES IN THAT AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEXT BATCH
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT NOW VENTURING ACROSS
LAKE MI PER SATELLITE/RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...LAKE EFFECT AREAS UNDER THE GUN AGAIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT
FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: AND SO IT BEGINS...WITH LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW BANDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABOVE ALL COMPLIMENTS OF A FAST
MOVING LOW AMP SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING OVERHEAD...WITH CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED PACIFIC ORIGINATED MOISTURE TIED TO THEM. FROM A SYNOPTIC
STANDPOINT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FAR FROM OVERWHELMING...WITH JUST
ENOUGH OF BOTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW. SAME IS NOT THE CASE FOR THE FAVORED W/SW FLOW LAKE
AREAS...WITH EXCELLENT FETCH AUGMENTED BY AN ALREADY LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND ALL LOSS OF INVERSION LEVEL DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. FAR NORTHWEST LOWER TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE LAKE
SNOWS SO FAR...WITH MULTI-BANDED ACTIVITY OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR (AT LEAST PER RADAR TRENDS).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
STEADIER AND HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS. ONGOING HEADLINE
MANAGEMENT DECISIONS.

DETAILS: KINDA COMPLICATED. LEAD WAVE AND INITIAL SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXIT STAGE RIGHT RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SECOND AND MORE DEFINED WAVE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...COUPLED NICELY WITH
WHAT SHOULD BE ONGOING W/SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT TARGETING THE STRAITS
REGION. MAIN SLUG OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC/MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY END WITH DEPARTURE OF FIRST SYSTEM...LEAVING MORE PURE LAKE
INFLUENCES TO DICTATE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY. AS
MENTIONED...STILL APPEARS THE STRAITS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING INTO PERHAPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RATHER WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AXIS TARGETING THIS REGION AS SECONDARY WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW
IN THESE AREAS...WITH NEAR H7 INVERSION LEVEL AND GOOD OMEGA IN
PRIMARY DGZ ONLY HELPING THE CAUSE. PER THE USUAL...BEST SNOW LOOKS
TO FALL IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR...WITH AREAS JUST OUTSIDE
THE MAIN BAND(S?) RECEIVING LITTLE ACCUMULATION. INHERITED LAKE
ADVISORY WILL NO DOUBT REMAIN...AND BASED OFF LATEST TRENDS...WILL
KICK AROUND THE IDEA OF EXTENDING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH...DEEPEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS PASS OFF TO
THE NORTH...SUGGESTING BEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT ENDING QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. CURRENT ENDING TIME LOOKS ON TARGET...WITH JUST A FEW
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

INTERESTING FORECAST HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW AMP SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LIKELY TO BRING A SUBSTANTIAL
DOWNTICK TO LAKE SNOW INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT CHANGES
QUICKLY HEADING THROUGH THE EVENING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT. TARGET AREA FOR WHAT SHOULD BE INTENSIFYING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHIFTS WEST INTO CENTRAL MACKINAC AND WESTERN/CENTRAL CHIPPEWA
COUNTIES. DESPITE SOME H8 "WARMING"...INSTABILITY REMAINS MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO INDUCE A GOOD TO EXCELLENT LAKE RESPONSE...WITH STRONG
SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS LIGHT
SOUTH FLOW OFF LOWER MICHIGAN INTERCEPTS SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. CLOUD TOP MOISTURE UP THROUGH PRIME DGZ SUPPORTS SOME
DECENT RATIOS...JUST SHORT OF 20 TO 1. ADDING IT ALL UP...AND EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO ONCE AGAIN
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL LET CURRENT HEADLINE RUN
ITS COURSE...LETTING THE DAY CREW DECIDE IF ANOTHER HEADLINE IS
NEEDED TONIGHT. FOR NORTHERN LOWER...SHORELINE HUGGING LAKE SNOWS
WILL GRADUALLY GET SHOVED INLAND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TRANSIENT
NATURE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. JUST SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL COLD...WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S...AND LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...PLENTY OF SNOW AND COLD. HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

COLD UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM JUST NW OF SUPERIOR MONDAY
MORNING...TO JUST NORTH OF LK HURON BY TUE MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM SUPERIOR MONDAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING
CENTRAL QUEBEC. COLD AIR WILL RUSH IN MONDAY MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY
RETREAT...BEFORE A MORE POTENT SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THRU
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE OBVIOUS BIG CONCERNS.

MONDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING NW LOWER MI AND
ENTERING WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES AT 12Z/7AM...AND WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST BY 18Z/1PM. 850MB TEMPS TO THE MINUS MID TEENS C WILL COVER
NORTHERN LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A TROWEL-LIKE STRUCTURE
WILL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT MILDER READINGS (MINUS LOW TEENS) OVER
EASTERN UPPER. AN INITIAL SW 1000-850MB FETCH WILL VEER WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NORTHERN LOWER WILL DE DRY SLOTTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TOWARD
EVENING. EASTERN UPPER WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARCING
TO THE EAST/NORTH/WEST...WITH 1000-700MB RH IN THE 70-80 PERCENT
RANGE.

SO...BEST LAKE EFFECT IN SW FLOW WILL FOCUS FROM LEELANAU UP TO
EMMET CO AND ON INTO EASTERN UPPER. SNOW SHOULD INCREASE WITH
NORTHERN EXTENT...WHERE THE SW FETCH WILL PERSIST LONGEST AND WHERE
MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE HIGH...675MB/9KFT
AGL...WITH THE DGZ PARKED RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC
SETUP...A POST-FRONTAL SW FLOW EVENT. BUT AM INCLINED TO GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE QPF...WITH 3-5 INCH ACCUMS FROM EMMET UP INTO CENTRAL
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL LOWER AMOUNTS IN
TVC/MBL/CAD AREA...WHERE CLASSIC W TO NW LES WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER
PERIODS.

MAX TEMPS MID 20S TO NEAR 30F.

MON NIGHT...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SWINGS BACK INTO NORTHERN
MI...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 850MB TROWAL IS
SLIGHTLY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL RESUME
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SHARPLY CYCLONIC AS
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT GOES THRU...WITH NORTHERN LOWER MI SEEING A
WNW 1000-850MB FLOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH EASTERN UPPER
VEERING ALL THE WAY TO NNW BY DAYBREAK. THE RELATIVELY STEADY WNW
FETCH...DEEPER MOISTURE...AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IS CAUSE FOR
ALL SORTS OF CONCERN IN PARTS OF NW LOWER...WHERE ACCUMS COULD
EASILY BE IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE IN MANCELONA/BOYNE FALLS/GLR. FOR
EASTERN UPPER...THEY LOSE THE LAKES WITH A W FETCH FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH AN ABRUPT VEERING TO NNW (WHICH ISN/T FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING BUT FAR WESTERN CHIP/MACK) VERY LATE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
THERE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH MAYBE 1-3 NEAR PARADISE AND
CURTIS/ENGADINE.

MIN TEMPS MID TEENS TO NEAR 20F.

TUESDAY...LES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAMPAGE THRU AT LEAST THE 1ST HALF
OF THE DAY IN WNW TO NW FLOW AREAS IN NW LOWER. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE DEPARTURE OF SHARPER SURFACE TROFFING TO THE
EAST...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO WI...WILL START TO BACK THE 1000-
850MB FLOW TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE DRYING...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL...SEVERAL MORE INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE BACKING FLOW WILL BRIEFLY OPEN UP MORE OF EASTERN UPPER MI TO
LES...BUT FURTHER BACKING TO WEST WILL END THAT ALTOGETHER...AND THE
SHIFTING WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMS IN THE 3-OR-LESS RANGE.

SNOWFALL PROGS FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY PERIOD JUSTIFY THE
ISSUANCE OF AN LES WATCH FOR THE CLASSIC WNW TO NW SNOWBELTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MI. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALSO BECOMES A CONCERN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT...AS WINDS
INCREASE.

MAX TEMPS IN THE 20S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...AN INTENSIFYING CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NW TUE NIGHT INTO WED...PROVIDING MORE EXPANSIVE CHANCES FOR
SNOW...AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS TO RETURN LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT.

THE GFS NOW WANTS TO USHER UPPER TROFFING OUT OF THE REGION BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO ALTER THE PATTERN...AND
GIVEN THAT IT IS THE ECMWF AND THE NORMAL NATURE OF THE MODELS TO
SWITCH PATTERNS TOO QUICKLY...IT IS PREFERRED. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM MOST OF THE EXTENDED MODEL
SUITE (INCLUDING THE ECMWF) OF MODERATION...AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. SO THERE IS PERHAPS SOME HOPE THAT LATE FALL
MAY MAKE A RETURN...HOWEVER BRIEF IT MAY BE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHERE SOME
BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FLOW OFF THE LAKE. WINDS BACK A
BIT MORE SW TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PULL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OF
THE TAF SITES...SAVE FOR PLN.

POTENT COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
LIKELY CARRY A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTO NW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...BRINGING MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS SUBSIDE A TOUCH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
BIGGER STORY REMAINS INCREASING THREAT FOR GALE CONDITIONS ON SOME
OF THE BIG WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR INVADES THE NORTHERN LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ019-021-022-027-028.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JAZ
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
543 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-171200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
543 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE STRAITS
REGION...FAR SOUTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. SEE THE ONGOING ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN INTENSIFY TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 OVER CENTRAL MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE
CLASSIC SNOWBELTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING BOYNE
FALLS...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...AND GAYLORD. GUSTY WINDS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SEE
THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF SNOWFALL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS:

ONLINE: WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGAYLORD
TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1021 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     SNOW             CHARLEVOIX              45.32N 85.26W
11/16/2014  M5.0 INCH        CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW DURATION 12 HOURS.

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1120 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     SNOW             1 N WELLSTON            44.24N 85.95W
11/16/2014  M3.4 INCH        MANISTEE           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4.6 INCHES FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT
            11 AM. SNOW DEPTH 6 INCHES. SNOW DURATION 12
            HOURS.

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1204 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 WSW PESHAWBESTOWN     45.01N 85.64W
11/16/2014  M9.0 INCH        LEELANAU           MI   PUBLIC

            HEAVY SNOW DURATION 18 HOURS.

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM