River Flood Warning 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

279 
WGUS83 KAPX 130849
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
449 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FELL IN THE RIFLE RIVER BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH COMMON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS WERE
ALREADY RATHER HIGH...AND THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW TO MELT AWAY IN
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING WELL ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. 

NOTE THAT THIS RIVER FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY OFF EXPECTED RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN SUCH RAINFALL FORECASTS...AND THUS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THIS RIVER FORECAST. PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS
ALONG THE RIFLE RIVER SHOULD FREQUENTLY MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND THE
LATEST FORECASTS.   

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREAS SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT PROPERTY 
FROM RISING WATER LEVELS. 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...OR AS NEW 
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-132049-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.140413T0842Z-140417T2200Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.140413T0508Z.140415T1200Z.140417T1600Z.NO/
449 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT  4:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.3 FEET BY 
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       MON     TUE     WED

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    6.3  SUN 04 AM       8.7    11.2    10.5


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

058 
WGUS83 KAPX 131624
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1224 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE M-55
CORRIDOR...WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
PUSH THE RIFLE AND MANISTEE RIVERS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN
WILL EXPERIENCE RECORD FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC165-140424-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140418T0430Z/
/SHRM4.3.ER.140413T1354Z.140415T1200Z.140417T2230Z.NR/
1224 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT  9:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.0 FEET. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS
  MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.2 FEET BY TUESDAY
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES CAN BE
  EXPECTED ADJACENT TO THE RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE,
  OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       MON     TUE     WED

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.0  SUN 09 AM      16.0    17.1    17.1


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

MIC011-140424-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140417T2100Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.140413T0508Z.140415T1200Z.140417T1500Z.NO/
1224 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.6 FEET BY 
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       MON     TUE     WED

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.7  SUN 11 AM       9.9    11.5    10.6


&&

LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             

$$

865 
WGUS83 KAPX 140120
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
920 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. BOTH THE RIFLE RIVER
NEAR STERLING...AND THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN...ARE ALREADY
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL PUSH BOTH RIVER
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN TO SEE
RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...OR AS NEW 
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


&&

MIC165-141320-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140418T1800Z/
/SHRM4.3.ER.140413T1418Z.140415T1800Z.140418T1200Z.NR/
920 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  5:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.2 FEET BY 
  TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       MON     TUE     WED

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.1  SUN 05 PM      17.0    17.1    16.1


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

MIC011-141320-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140417T2230Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.140413T0508Z.140415T1200Z.140417T1630Z.NR/
920 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT  8:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.0 FEET BY 
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       MON     TUE     WED

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    8.4  SUN 08 PM      11.9    10.7     6.9


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

JZ

449 
WGUS83 KAPX 141047
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVER BASINS...AT SHERMAN AND STERLING. 
RIVER LEVELS HERE ARE ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE
RISING THROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE RAINFALL TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION LATER THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW 
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC165-142247-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140417T0600Z/
/SHRM4.3.ER.140413T1418Z.140415T0000Z.140417T0000Z.NR/
647 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  3:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.2 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.9  MON 03 AM      17.0    16.0    14.6


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

MIC011-142247-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140417T1930Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.140413T0508Z.140415T0600Z.140417T1330Z.NR/
647 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  6:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.0 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    9.9  MON 06 AM      12.0     9.7     6.5


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

647 
WGUS83 KAPX 141451
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1051 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.HEAVY RAINS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO RAPID RISES ON THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS. RIVER LEVELS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH 
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE 
MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN...WITH DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE HIGHEST RECORDED WATER LEVELS EVER SEEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES OR DRIVE
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU COME UPON HIGH WATER...TURN AROUND
DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS FLOODING SITUATION AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

&&

MIC165-150251-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140418T0130Z/
/SHRM4.3.ER.140413T1418Z.140415T1200Z.140417T1930Z.NR/
1051 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.1 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.3 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES OCCURS 
  ADJACENT TO THE RIGHT BANK OF THE RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE,
  OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   16.1  MON 07 AM      17.2    17.1    15.8


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

MIC011-150251-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140417T0600Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.140413T0508Z.140415T0000Z.140417T0000Z.NO/
1051 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.9 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6   10.1  MON 10 AM      10.8     8.0     5.6


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

416 
WGUS83 KAPX 150141
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
941 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.HEAVY RAINS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO RAPID RISES ON THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS. RIVER LEVELS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT.
RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN...
WITH DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE HIGHEST
RECORDED WATER LEVELS EVER SEEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES OR DRIVE
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU COME UPON HIGH WATER...TURN AROUND
DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS FLOODING SITUATION AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

MIC165-151341-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140419T0900Z/
/SHRM4.3.ER.140413T1418Z.140415T1800Z.140419T0300Z.NR/
941 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT  7:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.4 FEET. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.1 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  FRIDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   16.4  MON 07 PM      17.0    16.5    15.7


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

MIC011-151341-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140417T0500Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.140413T0508Z.140415T0600Z.140416T2300Z.NO/
941 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  9:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.8 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6   10.6  MON 09 PM       7.9     5.5     5.1


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

354 
WGUS83 KAPX 151455
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1055 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  AU SABLE RIVER NEAR RED OAK AFFECTING OSCODA COUNTY

.RIVER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE RED OAK GAGE...BUT ARE 
BEGINNING TO FALL. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
RIVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RUNOFF FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH
THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS...WITH BOTH WELL INTO FLOOD
STAGE. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
THE RIVERS EXPECTED TO FINALLY FALL BACK BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES OR DRIVE
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU COME UPON HIGH WATER...TURN AROUND
DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS SITUATION AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

MIC165-160255-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140417T1500Z/
/SHRM4.3.ER.140413T1418Z.140415T1800Z.140417T0900Z.NR/
1055 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.9 FEET. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.9 THIS 
  AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   16.9  TUE 07 AM      16.2    15.1    14.3


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

MIC011-160255-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140417T1000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.140413T0508Z.140415T0730Z.140417T0400Z.NO/
1055 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6   10.4  TUE 10 AM       8.3     5.9     5.4


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC135-151525-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140417T0600Z/
/RDOM4.3.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1055 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE AU SABLE RIVER NEAR RED OAK.
* AT  7:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 6.9 FEET AND
  WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO MIDWEEK.


 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

AU SABLE RIVER
  RED OAK            7    6.5  TUE 07 AM       6.3     6.0     5.7


&&


LAT...LON 4471 8413 4466 8413 4461 8414 4461 8432
      4468 8430 4471 8427             



$$

071 
WGUS83 KAPX 160023
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
823 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RUNOFF FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH
THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS...WITH BOTH WELL INTO FLOOD
STAGE. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE
RIVERS EXPECTED TO FINALLY FALL BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES OR DRIVE
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU COME UPON HIGH WATER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT
ON THIS SITUATION AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

MIC165-161223-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140417T2100Z/
/SHRM4.3.ER.140413T1418Z.140415T1530Z.140417T1500Z.NR/
823 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  5:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.8 FEET. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   16.8  TUE 05 PM      15.4    14.5    14.1


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

MIC011-161223-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140418T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.140413T0508Z.140415T0730Z.140417T1800Z.NO/
823 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    9.2  TUE 07 PM       6.3     5.7     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

115 
WGUS83 KAPX 161436
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1036 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RIVERS HAVE BEEN FALLING AND CONTINUE ON A DOWNWARD TREND.  THEY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NEW INFORMATION BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC165-170236-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140418T0600Z/
/SHRM4.3.ER.140413T1418Z.140415T1530Z.140418T0000Z.NR/
1036 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT  7:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   16.5  WED 07 AM      15.6    14.8    14.3


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       

$$

MIC011-170236-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140417T2100Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.140413T0508Z.140415T0730Z.140417T1500Z.NO/
1036 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  9:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.5  WED 09 AM       6.3     5.7     5.1


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

057 
WGUS83 KAPX 170052
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
852 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RIVERS HAVE BEEN FALLING AND CONTINUE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY.
THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON
SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES OR DRIVE
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU COME UPON HIGH WATER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT
ON THIS SITUATION AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

MIC165-171252-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140420T0300Z/
/SHRM4.3.ER.140413T1418Z.140415T1530Z.140419T2100Z.NR/
852 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT  5:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.5  BY AFTER 
  MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   16.5  WED 05 PM      15.9    15.3    14.9


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

MIC011-171252-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140417T1500Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.140413T0508Z.140415T0730Z.140417T0900Z.NO/
852 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  8:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CANOE LIVERY AT 
  RIVER VIEW CAMPGROUND.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    6.4  WED 08 PM       5.4     4.9     4.4


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
744 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD
RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
EXITING SYSTEM...WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD THROUGH CHICAGO AND
INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FROM MUSKEGON TO THE THUMB. TALE OF TWO
HALVES OF THE STATE AS TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES...TEMPS TO THE NORTH RUNNING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
TO MID 50S.

THERMAL GRADIENT OF COURSE RUNS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WITH AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING UP INTO THE U.P. ASSOCIATED
F-GEN FORCING WITH THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
PRECIP ALSO LIFTING UP THROUGH THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...BATCH OF
CONVECTION (MCS WANNABE) THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT IS ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...FED
BY INCREASING S/SW FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST DRAGGING BROAD LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND OF COURSE STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIN LINE OF TSTMS LINED UP FROM WISCONSIN
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG STRONGEST SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LEADING EDGE OF REDUCED STABILITY ALOFT.

TONIGHT...PRECIP TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AS UPPER JET
STREAM LIFTS UP AND OUT OF THE REGION. MCS WANNABE WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING
CATEGORICAL RAINS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. TOUGHER CALL
FOR NORTH OF M-72 AS BEST PRECIP MAY SKIRT BY TO THE SOUTH.
BUT...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL EXPAND A BIT
NORTHWARD IN TIME AS EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE WAVE ON THE NRN FRINGE
OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN LEADING THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP A BIT
MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE FOR THE
NRN COUNTIES. SOME THUNDER MAY SNEAK INTO THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES
EVENTUALLY AS REDUCED STABILITY ALOFT MAKES IT/S WAY NORTH.

THEN...WHAT HAPPENS NET IS A BIT UP IN THE AIR. SW-NE INVERTED
SFC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE UP ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND POTENTIALLY RUN UP
THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SO FAR...NOT MUCH GOING ON
UPSTREAM BUT IT IS GETTING A BIT BUBBLY BACK THROUGH IOWA AND
NEBRASKA...SIGNS THAT STUFF MAY GET GOING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SO...WILL HANG ON TO THE CATEGORICAL RAIN IDEA FOR NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SKIP ON ANY TIMING DETAILS FOR NOW.
PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS
NARROW CORRIDOR OF PRECIP LIFTS UP AND OUT. BUT SATURATING LOW
LEVELS WELL INTO THE COLDER AIR IS A GREAT SETUP UP FOR SOME
DRIZZLE/FOG UP THAT WAY.

THUNDER...AXIS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EDGES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH BETTER LAPSE RATES HANG DOWN THROUGH
THE LOWER LAKES. BUT BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES DOES
EDGE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SUGGESTING THE RISK
FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THUNDER MENTION
CURRENTLY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK LOOKS FINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

LOTS OF FUN TO BE HAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE MAJOR
ISSUES OF COURSE REVOLVING AROUND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNEAKY HEAVY SNOW IN SPOTS...NOT TO MENTION
WHAT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKE A TRULY COLD SHOT OF AIR THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF NEXT WORK WEEK. THANKFULLY...THERE AREN'T A WHOLE LOT
OF ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS OR LARGER STORM SYSTEMS FORESEEN FROM MIDWEEK
ONWARD...THOUGH OF COURSE THERE'S ALWAYS A LITTLE SOMETHING TO LOOK
AT. THE BASIC SETUP THROUGH MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF A DEEPENING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS...HELPING SUSTAIN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WIDE OPEN
GULF MOISTURE TAP...FEEDING INTO A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED SOMEWHERE FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THAT SETUP IS A CLASSIC ONE FOR HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND INDEED THAT APPEARS RATHER LIKELY...THOUGH
PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.

STILL LOOKING LIKE WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY
MORNING AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET FORCING UP AND OVER THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT WANES...WHILE THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNWARD FORCING. MAY END UP SEEING A
LITTLE DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION REMAINS NEAR THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER UPTICK IN LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND A
TIGHTENING AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS BASICALLY LAID OVER THE CWA SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE RE-IGNITING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT...THE FGEN SIGNAL IS DOWNRIGHT IMPRESSIVE
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A SHARPLY SLOPED AXIS FROM THE SURFACE
RIGHT ON UP THROUGH 400MB...SUGGESTIVE OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN INTENSE
PERIOD OF UPWARD ASCENT. THAT WHOLE PROCESS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF UPPER JET FORCING SLIDING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD - A FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

COMBINE THAT WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEARING 1.4 INCHES (UP NEAR
RECORD LEVELS PER KAPX CLIMATOLOGY) AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF RATHER PERSISTENT AND HEAVY RAIN. PLACEMENT IS
KEY FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE BASIC
SETUP...BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BISECT THE
CWA...WHERE UPPER FORCING IS MAXIMIZED IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS
ALL OF THE INSTABILITY RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...THOUGH
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SUNDAY EVENING AS
THE AXIS OF STRONGEST FGEN BRIEFLY BISECTS AN AXIS OF LOWER
900-700MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES...PARTICULARLY DOWN TOWARD THE M-55
CORRIDOR. TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE ALL BUT IMPOSSIBLE AS READINGS MAY
WELL BE STUCK IN THE 30S NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...PERHAPS WARMING AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 60S FAR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST...HELPING PUNT THE LOW LEVEL FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD AND DRAGGING INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE
AREA. PER MULTI-DAY TRENDS...THERE ARE STILL SOME BIG HINTS THAT A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVY SNOW MAY FALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CWA...WHERE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN ROUGHLY
09-13Z TO PUSH THE ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW 0C. THIS WHOLE SCENARIO
REMAINS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH PERSISTENT UPPER JET FORCING
HOLDING FIRM THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL
STILL BE AN ELONGATED AXIS OF PRECIP ONGOING AS THE COLD AIR CRASHES
IN. PLACEMENT OF SAID PRECIP SHIELD WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE...AS AT THE
MOMENT...IT APPEARS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR WHERE THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FIRST - EASTERN UPPER. THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS
WILL BE NORTHWEST LOWER WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR CATCHES UP IN TIME TO
QUICKLY TURN ANY REMAINING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. NOT LOOKING FOR A
VERY LONG PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT MAY SEE SOME INTENSE RATES FOR A FEW
HOURS. SREF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PROBABILITY
PLACEMENT (OWING TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THERMAL FIELDS)...BUT IT IS
INTERESTING TO SEE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR 8+ INCHES SHOWING UP
RECENTLY. AT THE MOMENT...GUT FEELING IS FOR MORE OF A 3-5" VERY WET
SNOW WHERE THE COLD/PRECIP CAN OVERLAP THE BEST...HIGHEST LIKELY
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THINGS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER.
ACCUMULATION MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO GET UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOGGY
PRECEDING CONDITIONS...BUT INTENSE RATES SHOULD OVERCOME THAT FOR A
TIME. PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT CURRENTLY LOOKING
LIKE A HEADLINE EVENT FOR A SLIVER OF COUNTIES.

AFTER THAT...THINGS LOOK TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT AND TURN DOWNRIGHT
COLD LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS DEEP THERMAL TROUGHING SLIDES
OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SNEAKY POSSIBILITY FOR ONE MORE
ROUND OF SNOW TO OVERTAKE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AND ENTRANCE REGION JET FORCING SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
GUIDANCE TRENDS RECENTLY SUPPORT THIS NOTION SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
OTHERWISE...VERY COLD H8 TEMPS AVERAGING -14 TO -16C SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO TUESDAY ON A MEAN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...WITH QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS WELL. TEMPS MAY WELL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S IN MANY SPOTS
AND WILL LOWER GOING READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES AS IT'S JUST DOWNRIGHT
COLD UPSTAIRS. HIGH PRESSURE WORKING OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT A LITTLE WORRIED SOME
THICKER MID CLOUDS MAY ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY TRULY COLD READINGS.
STILL SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME SPOTS
COULD DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH ANY FRESH SNOW COVER.

ANOTHER SNEAKY WEATHER SYSTEM MAY COME INTO PLAY LATER WEDNESDAY AS
WARM AIR STARTS TO FLOOD BACK NORTH...WITH HINTS FOR A FEW DAYS OF
AN ENHANCED BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS STRETCHING OUT SOMEWHERE NEARBY...
THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS A BIG QUESTION MARK. THEREAFTER...
LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH LATE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS
HEIGHT FALLS TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST...SENDING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE AN UPSTREAM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED...WITH THE GFS BY FAR THE MOST
IMPACTFUL FOR THIS AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...AND PLENTY TO DEAL
WITH IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL PUNT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND
SEE WHERE FUTURE TRENDS TAKE US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIDE RANGING CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR TO IFR MOST COMMON.

STALLING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. CIGS/VSBYS PRESENTLY AREN/T AWFUL...WITH PLENTY OF VFR
TO BE FOUND...BUT THESE SHOULD LOWER AS THE NIGHT PROCEEDS. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST...SEE TAFS
FOR DETAILS. PLENTY OF RAIN TO BE SEEN AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AT MBL.

EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOMING NORTHERLY SUNDAY. LLWS
TONIGHT...MAINLY EARLY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ016>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
436 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
131200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
436 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON...AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LOWLAND FLOODING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR RIVER AND LOWLAND FLOODING WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. PLEASE SEE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH OR OUR LATEST WEATHER
STORY GRAPHIC AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR
MANY LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER...AND ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED BRIEFLY
MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT ANY TIME THIS WEEKEND...WITH SNOW REPORTS WELCOME
MONDAY. REPORTS MAY BE MADE IN ONE OF THREE WAYS:

ONLINE: WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GAYLORD.GOV

TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

LAWRENCE/ADAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
621 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW MANISTEE          44.23N 86.34W
04/12/2014  M1.04 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 1 SSW MANISTEE /DW9113/
            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 6 HOURS

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
805 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E PARKDALE            44.27N 86.25W
04/12/2014  M1.17 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION MANISTEE COUNTY-BLACKER AIRPORT
            /MBL/ HEAVY RAIN DURATION 6 HOURS

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
825 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE JENNINGS          44.31N 85.26W
04/12/2014  M1.02 INCH       MISSAUKEE          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 2 SE JENNINGS /CW3699/ HEAVY
            RAIN DURATION 6 HOURS

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
832 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N WELLSTON            44.23N 85.95W
04/12/2014  M1.75 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   COOP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 7 HOURS

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
921 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ROSCOMMON COUNTY AIRPORT44.35N 84.69W
04/12/2014  M1.03 INCH       ROSCOMMON          MI   ASOS

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 7 HOURS

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
928 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW ALGER             44.13N 84.12W
04/12/2014  M1.04 INCH       ARENAC             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 1 NNW ALGER /AGRM4/ HEAVY
            RAIN DURATION 7 HOURS

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM