Alert archive / Michigan / Ice Storm Warnings in 2014

Ice Storm Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

January 10, 201422 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this ice storm warning at Jan 10, 2014, 8:32 PM EST for 22 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 10 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 10, 2014, 8:32 PM EST (01:32 UTC)
Expired
Jan 11, 2014, 6:44 AM EST
In force
10 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
All 22 counties

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2014-01-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2014-01-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 338 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
424 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
338 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
362 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

427 
WWUS43 KAPX 110132
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
832 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

MIZ016>019-021>024-027>029-110945-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140111T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.IS.W.0001.140111T0132Z-140111T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO
832 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THROUGH MIDNIGHT: FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND COAT AREA
   ROADS AND POWER LINES. ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING
   RAIN IS POSSIBLE. AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH IS
   POSSIBLE.

 * STORM TOTAL ICE: THROUGH THE NIGHT ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS
   EXPECTED BY 7 AM SATURDAY. 

 * THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ICING WILL BE ON SNOW COVERED AND 
   UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS 
   ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE 
   ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 ANYTIME WITH ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-030-031-036-041-042-110600-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140111T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.IS.W.0001.140111T0132Z-140111T0600Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-ALCONA-MANISTEE-IOSCO-GLADWIN-
ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
832 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THROUGH 100 AM: ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED
   AS THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON TOP OF THE TENTH
   OF AN INCH THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED ALREADY. 

 * STORM TOTAL ICE: UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS
   EXPECTED THROUGH 100 AM BEFORE THE FREEZING RAIN CHANGES OVER TO
   RAIN. 

 * THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ICING WILL BE ON SNOW COVERED AND 
   UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS 
   ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE 
   ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 ANYTIME WITH ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ032>035-110600-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140111T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.IS.W.0001.140111T0132Z-140111T0600Z/
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH
832 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THROUGH 100 AM: ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED
   AS THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON TOP OF THE TENTH
   OF AN INCH THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED ALREADY. 

 * STORM TOTAL ICE: UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS
   EXPECTED THROUGH 100 AM BEFORE THE FREEZING RAIN CHANGES OVER TO
   RAIN. 

 * THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ICING WILL BE ON SNOW COVERED AND 
   UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS 
   ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE 
   ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 ANYTIME WITH ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-110945-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.140111T0200Z-140111T1600Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
832 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM...WITH PERIODS OF
   MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A
   MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER 1 AM. 

 * SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

 * STORM TOTAL SNOW: 3 TO 5 INCHES...AND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
   ICE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

 * THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET...AND THEREFORE DIFFICULT TO 
   MOVE AROUND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW... 
   SLEET...OR ICE IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 WITH SNOW OR ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
862 
WWUS43 KAPX 110321
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1021 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

MIZ016>019-021>024-027>029-111130-
/O.CON.KAPX.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO
1021 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * OVERNIGHT: FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO COAT AREA ROADS AND
   POWER LINES. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
   ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. 

 * STORM TOTAL ICE: MORE THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION
   IS EXPECTED BY 7 AM SATURDAY.

 * THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ICING WILL BE ON SNOW COVERED AND 
   UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS 
   ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE 
   ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 ANYTIME WITH ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-030>036-041-042-110600-
/O.CON.KAPX.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T0600Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1021 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THROUGH 100 AM: FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO COAT AREA ROADS AND
   POWER LINES. 

 * STORM TOTAL ICE: MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION
   IS EXPECTED THROUGH 100 AM BEFORE THE FREEZING RAIN CHANGES
   OVER TO RAIN.

 * THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ICING WILL BE ON SNOW COVERED AND 
   UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS 
   ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE 
   ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 ANYTIME WITH ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-111130-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140111T1600Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1021 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.

 * SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

 * STORM TOTAL SNOW: 3 TO 5 INCHES...AND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF 
   ICE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

 * THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET...AND THEREFORE DIFFICULT TO 
   MOVE AROUND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW... 
   SLEET...OR ICE IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 WITH SNOW OR ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$
288 
WWUS43 KAPX 110544
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1244 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

MIZ020-025-026-030>036-041-042-111200-
/O.EXT.KAPX.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1244 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE ICE STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THROUGH 700 AM: FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO COAT AREA ROADS
   AS THE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
   AREAS. WHILE THE RAIN ISN'T FREEZING ON ELEVATED OBJECTS...WE
   STILL ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF ICY ROADS. 

 * STORM TOTAL ICE: MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION
   IS EXPECTED.

 * THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ICING WILL BE ON SNOW COVERED AND 
   UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS 
   ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE 
   ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 ANYTIME WITH ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>019-021>024-027>029-111200-
/O.CON.KAPX.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO
1244 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THROUGH 700 AM: FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO COAT AREA ROADS
   AS THE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
   AREAS. WHILE THE RAIN ISN'T FREEZING ON ELEVATED OBJECTS...WE
   STILL ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF ICY ROADS.

 * STORM TOTAL ICE: MORE THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE 
   ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BY 7 AM SATURDAY. 

 * THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ICING WILL BE ON SNOW COVERED AND 
   UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS 
   ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE 
   ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 ANYTIME WITH ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-111345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140111T1600Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1244 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.

 * SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

 * STORM TOTAL SNOW: 3 TO 5 INCHES...AND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF 
   ICE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

 * THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET...AND THEREFORE DIFFICULT TO 
   MOVE AROUND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW... 
   SLEET...OR ICE IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 WITH SNOW OR ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$
464 
WWUS43 KAPX 110919
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
419 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

MIZ016>019-021>024-027>029-111200-
/O.CON.KAPX.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO
419 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THROUGH 700 AM: FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO COAT
   AREA ROADS AS THE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW
   FREEZING IN MANY AREAS.

 * STORM TOTAL ICE: MORE THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE 
   ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BY 7 AM SATURDAY. 

 * THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ICING WILL BE ON SNOW COVERED AND 
   UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS 
   ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE 
   ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 ANYTIME WITH ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-030>036-041-042-111200-
/O.CON.KAPX.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
419 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THROUGH 700 AM: FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO COAT AREA ROADS
   AS THE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
   AREAS. 

 * STORM TOTAL ICE: MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION 
   IS EXPECTED. 

 * THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ICING WILL BE ON SNOW COVERED AND 
   UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. 

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS 
   ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE 
   ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 ANYTIME WITH ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-111600-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140111T1600Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
419 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.

 * SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

 * STORM TOTAL SNOW: 2 TO 4 INCHES...AND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
   ICE IS EXPECTED BY THIS MORNING.

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

 * THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET...AND THEREFORE DIFFICULT TO 
   MOVE AROUND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW... 
   SLEET...OR ICE IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 WITH SNOW OR ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$
959 
WWUS43 KAPX 111144
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
644 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

MIZ016>036-041-042-111600-
/O.CAN.KAPX.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140111T1600Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-
ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
644 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...ICE STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. THE ICE STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
   PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE
   MORNING.

*  ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW
   ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

 * ROADS WILL REMAIN VERY SLIPPERY UNTIL TREATED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW... 
   SLEET...OR ICE IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 WITH SNOW OR ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-111600-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140111T1600Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
644 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * A MIXTURE OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS
   MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS
   MORNING.

 * STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES...AND ONE TENTH
   OF AN INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL WILL REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

 * ROADS WILL REMAIN VERY SLIPPERY UNTIL TREATED.

 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW... 
   SLEET...OR ICE IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * CALL 1-800-647-8676 WITH SNOW OR ICE REPORTS OR CONTACT US 
   ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this ice storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this ice storm warning went out at Jan 10, 6:35 PM EST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 10, 6:35 PM EST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST INTO QUEBEC
SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE...MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS INCREASES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER PLAINS SYSTEM PASSES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP HAS REACHED THE SRN BORDER
OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. TEMPS REMAIN MOSTLY AOB FREEZING
ATTM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OSC WHICH IS HOLDING AT 33 DEGREES.
UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS OVER CENTRAL LWR MICHIGAN ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
EITHER SNOW OR UNKNOWN PRECIP FOR PRESENT WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY WATCH PRECIP TYPE AS WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY INCH ITS WAY NORTHWARD THRU OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING. NO
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TYPE AS THE
EVENT UNFOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...WINTRY MIX TO CAUSE TRAVEL HEADACHES TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER EASTERN
UP...WITH A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OVER NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NATION/S MIDSECTION.  BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH 1" PWATS
ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  UNDER STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...NATIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BLOSSOMING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
NOW REACHING INTO ILLINOIS.  THIS IS BOUND FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
AS LOW PRESSURE...NOW ORGANIZING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA TAKES A
TRACK INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AND THEN
THROUGH THE STRAITS ON SATURDAY. THIS TRACK...ALONG WITH A LACK OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTS THAT WARM
AIR WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING INTO THIS CWA OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
HEADACHES FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

INTERESTING TO SEE ROAD TEMPERATURES RESPONDING RATHER QUICKLY
TODAY...ALREADY NEARING FREEZING ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH
VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.  THIS CERTAINLY HAS
IMPLICATIONS FOR US TONIGHT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING: VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND GIVEN THIS TREND...DO NOT EXPECT THAT WE/LL
NEED ANOTHER SPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF
FOG MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE BALMY CATEGORY /COMPARED TO LATE/ WITH SOME SPOTS
MAKING A RUN AT FREEZING ALONG THE COASTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN/HURON AS
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TOWARDS 00Z.

TONIGHT: PLENTY TO FORCE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
GOES NEUTRAL...TO PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH A COUPLED
JET STRUCTURE AT H2.  THIS SUPPORTS DEEP ASCENT OF AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING NOTHING TO
BLOCK INCOMING MOISTURE /IE NO DRY LLEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES/.  THESE
SCENARIOS TEND TO START FAST AND END FAST...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO RAPIDLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE
5PM-9PM TIMEFRAME...WITH A 6-9 HOUR OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

PTYPE: MODEL THERMAL STRUCTURE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...WHICH IS A BIT INTERESTING GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
NAM/GFS 12Z INITIALIZATION WAS ALREADY A BIT TOO WARM UPSTREAM.
SURFACE TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED PRETTY QUICKLY TODAY...BUT EXPECT THAT
AS WE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...ITS GOING TO TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO
MAKE THAT FINAL PUSH TO ALL LIQUID.  PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS APPROACH THAT DOESN/T STRAY TOO MUCH FROM OUR PREVIOUS
THINKING.  THIS IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE NAM...BUT PROBABLY A TAD
LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF.

SO...WHAT TO EXPECT?  FROM THE BRIDGE NORTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS THE WARM NOSE PRETTY MUCH MAKES IT INTO
THE STRAITS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  BEST
MOISTURE PLUME PEELS SOUTH OF THIS AREA...AND WITH OUR SURFACE LOW
STILL GETTING IT/S ACT TOGETHER...EXPECT QPF WON/T BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE.  SO...EXPECT 1-4" OVERNIGHT...WITH A LITTLE MORE ON
SATURDAY HERE.  FOR THE M-68 CORRIDOR...WE/LL SEE THE MAX WARM NOSE
TEMP REACH 1-2C...WHICH WILL INTRODUCE SOME SLEET AND POTENTIALLY A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ICING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
COATING WITH IT/S IMPACT MITIGATED BY 1-2" OF SNOW.

TOUGHEST LOCATION WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS.  WARM NOSE IS
STRONGER...BUT STILL ONLY 2-3C...JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COMPLETE
MELTING.  BUT...AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD WHERE SNOW/SLEET CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BEFORE TEMPS ALOFT
WARM.  THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FURTHER NORTH AND OVER INTERIOR
SPOTS...WHERE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL.  AFTER THIS...EXPECT
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO ARRIVE WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN ALONG
THE COASTS.  GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE TRENDS...A FEW COASTAL
SPOTS MAY EVEN GO RIGHT TO PLAIN RAIN.  FURTHER INLAND...THE ICING
LOOKS TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ICING LOOKS WORST ON ROADWAYS/BRIDGES/OVERPASSES...WITH TREES/POWER
LINES LIKELY WARMING UP MUCH FASTER...NOT ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
ICING.  AT THIS TIME...COULD SEE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
ON ROADS IN SOME OF THE COLDEST INTERIOR SPOTS /THAT STRUGGLE TO
CHANGE TO RAIN ALL NIGHT/...WITH UP TO ONE TENTH ELSEWHERE.

ALL THIS BOILS DOWN TO SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
EVEN THE WARMER COASTAL LOCALES HAVE BEEN COLD OF LATE WITH MARGINAL
ROAD TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING SOME SLICK TRAVEL POTENTIAL.  HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS...STARTING/ENDING
A LITTLE LATER OVER EASTERN UPPER.  WARNING LEVEL AMOUNTS OF
ICE/SNOW ARE NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE HIGH/: UNDER STRONG WARM ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE UP OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL
AFTER 12-3 AM...WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING OVER EASTERN UPPER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

OVERVIEW: A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND
THROUGH NORTH AMERICA TODAY AS EAST PACIFIC RIDGING HAS RELAXED AND
CLOSE UPPER LOW/CORE OF COLDEST AIR HAS RETRACTED BACK TOWARD THE
POLE. A COUPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW
MOVING THROUGH/INTO NOAM. FIRST MOST PRESSING SYSTEM ADVANCING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A VIGOROUS SYSTEM SPINNING UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL OF COURSE IMPACT US OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM NOW WORKING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW SATURDAY...AND
ULTIMATELY HAVE AN IMPACT IN THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGER
SCALE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP DUMP A COUPLE ROUNDS OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS OUR LAST
OUTBREAK...WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AS
OPPOSED TO 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

NEARER TERM...LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SOME HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER TO THE REGION
(SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION). A BRIEF BREAK FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. BUT NEXT SYSTEM SLIPS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY GOING
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING P-TYPE ISSUES TO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR CAN MAKE A RETURN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST
UPWARD FORCING SWINGS UP THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WHILE
WARM CONVEYOR PRECIP GETS PINCHED OFF TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY.
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT (ALREADY EVIDENT UPSTREAM WEDGING UP
THROUGH KANSAS BEHIND THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT) EXPECTED TO SLIDE
UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OVER JUST WHERE IT ENDS UP (NAM HAS THE DRY
SLOT PUNCHING UP THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA). REGARDLESS...
I DO EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM CONVEYOR PRECIP GETS SHOVED EAST. BEHIND THE
WAVE/SFC LOW...DEFORMATION (WRAP AROUND) PRECIP WILL SLIDE UP
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BEFORE THINGS DRY
OUT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFTING NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
MODEST MOISTURE/OVER WATER INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SNOW BELTS. BUT AGAIN...NOTHING BIG
ANTICIPATED. PRECIP TYPE...STILL ENOUGH ELEVATED WARM LAYER AROUND
SATURDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. BUT COLDER AIR COLLAPSES BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND WILL CHANGE REMAINING PRECIP TO SNOW...
EVEN AS SFC TEMPS HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...MINOR IF ACCUMULATIONS
OVER NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SUNDAY...SHOULD GET A NICE BREAK IN THE ACTION AS SFC AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF
SOME WARMER AIR PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AND WARMER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY (NO LAKE EFFECT) AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE AS
TEMPS WARM TO THE LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC SHORT
WAVES DIGS INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE DIPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A RENEWED PUSH OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING INTO THE REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH ONTARIO ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ALONG THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. NOT A BIG WEATHER
MAKER FOR US REMOVED FROM ANY DEEP INFLOW OF MOISTURE WHILE
STRONGEST FORCING RESIDES TO OUR NORTH. BUT INTERESTINGLY...GUIDANCE
DOES DEVELOP A THIN CORRIDOR OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND ALONG THE UPPER JET CORE GRADIENT STRETCHING UP THROUGH
THE STRAITS/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ALMOST F-GEN LOOKING IN NATURE.
THIN CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE/LIGHT PRECIP THEN SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT BRINGING SOME LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES. P-TYPE IS ANOTHER ISSUE HOWEVER...AS SUBTLE THERMAL
AXIS AND H8 TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 0C SLIPS INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXY LIGHT
PRECIP. HAVE JUST LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MAY
ULTIMATELY HAVE TO ADD SOME MIXED PRECIP TO THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (EXTENDED PERIODS)...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
THE WEATHER FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGING SENDS A COUPLE MORE CORES OF COLDER AIR DOWN INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AGAIN...NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT TEMPS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE TEENS TO 20S WILL BE COMMON. WEATHER-WISE...TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT ACTIVE AS MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES NO DOUBT BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH ICE COVERAGE ON THE LAKES
HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO). MAYBE A BREAK
FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND STRONG SFC LOW SLATED TO
DIG INTO GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LAKE SNOWS AND A
BIT COLDER HEADING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES AS WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP AND FOG IMPACT ALL OF NRN
LWR MICHIGAN AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SWING THRU THE REGION ON SATURDAY...CHANGING
PRECIP BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING SATURDAY MORNING. LLWS WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THRU TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT. SE SURFACE WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TREK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA ON SATURDAY.  A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

HEADLINES: NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED UNDER
WESTERLY FLOW LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS
FROM THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ016>019-
     021>024-027>029-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-030-031-036-041-042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ008-015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...BA
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ARNOTT
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 10, 3:38 PM EST, 4 hours 54 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
338 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
112345-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
338 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BE PREPARED
FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES ON AREA ROADWAYS.

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PLEASE SEE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBLE.

LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS:

BY PHONE: 1-800-647-8676 (REPORTS ONLY PLEASE...NO FORECASTS)

BY FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GAYLORD.GOV

BY TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

ARNOTT

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 10, 8:13 PM EST, 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
813 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     FREEZING RAIN    MANISTEE                44.24N 86.33W
01/10/2014  M0.10 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   PUBLIC

            1HR TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS THRU 8PM.

&&

SWR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 11, 4:20 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryAPX45 hr

Nearby

Ice Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2014Every ice storm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.