Wind Advisory 16, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

.AVIATION...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH THE SETTING SUN THIS
EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MCS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS WILL MARK THE LAST OF SEVERAL MCS/S WE HAVE SEEN IN THE ACTIVE
PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE LATE LAST WEEK. A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL ADVECT IN MUCH DRIER/STABLE AIR TODAY...KEEPING MOST AREAS DRY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PANHANDLES WHERE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE COMPACT UPPER LOW AND SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK HOWEVER...AND THUS NO
STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
QUITE WINDY TODAY BY JUNE STANDARDS THANKS TO AN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE VERTICALLY-
STACKED LOW. PARTS OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PANHANDLES MAY FLIRT WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE DAY. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY LATE EVENING. SUBSIDENCE WILL
TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...KEEPING THE PANHANDLES DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S.

IN A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY...INDUCING LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING WHICH WILL HELP TO DRAW SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. THIS RETURN OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF
AT LEAST SOME WEAK FORCING WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE PROGGED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SOME
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
THURSDAY...AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO HANG AROUND
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH THE DRYLINE POSSIBLY SHARPENING UP
OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH CONSISTENCY IN SIGNALS
REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY SUCH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THIS
RANGE...AND CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE AS WELL.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND RESULTANT GREENUP OF FUELS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

15/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-092100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
440 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KB