Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
717 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.UPDATE...
COORDINATION WITH SPC REVEALED THE WRONG REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER WAS GIVEN TO OUR FCST AREA INITIALLY. INSTEAD OF TORNADO WATCH
246...IT SHOULD BE TORNADO WATCH 248. HAVE INCORPORATED THE
REPLACEMENT CORRECT TORNADO WATCH INTO THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC
FORECASTS...AND THE UPDATES WILL BE OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/

UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 243 HAS BEEN REPLACED BY TORNADO WATCH 246 AND EXTENDED
UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY. APPROPRIATE UPDATES OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING...AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION AT EACH
LOCATION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS PAST 06Z TONIGHT SO HAVE
OMITTED FOR THIS ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY GETTING UNDERWAY...WITH AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PERIOD STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CO AND NM
HIGHER TERRAIN IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE OF
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. WARM FRONT/MCS OUTFLOW COMPOSITE HAS
SLOWLY BEEN EDGING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO JUST NORTH OF KTCC IN EASTERN NM AS OF THIS
WRITING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED WEST FROM NORTHERN OK
THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST KS. CONVECTION COMING OFF THE CO/NM HIGH
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. 0-1KM MLCAPES ARE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/MCS OUTFLOW AND IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG
RANGE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS STORMS TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THIS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THESE
STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST GROWING UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS AND
THEN ROLLING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT. BIGGER QUESTION STILL REMAINS HOW MUCH STORM DEVELOPMENT
WE/LL SEE AHEAD OF THIS HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALREADY HAVE ONE STORM GOING NEAR
GUYMON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BOUNDARIES CLOSELY FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. 18Z AMA SPECIAL SOUNDING REVEALED A DECENT
CAP STILL TO OVERCOME JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNBREAKABLE WITH FURTHER
HEATING...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE. MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO CAP LEFT ACROSS THE
OK PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING. LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THE LINEAR MCS
ORGANIZES. LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE...AND CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE. HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. THINK THE
INITIAL LINEAR MCS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST FORWARD-PROPAGATING...THUS
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORTING RENEWED ELEVATED CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
THINK THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES...BUT THIS COULD BE MODULATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION.

ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST ALONG WITH WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS LIKELY TRIGGERING THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING
PARTICULARLY WITH THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER MCS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN
IN INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHOULD SEE THE PATTERN SETTLE DOWN/DRY OUT FOR A TIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
722 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-071100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
722 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS
TO AROUND 70 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AFTER 1 AM TONIGHT...
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTER
GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

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