Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1148 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ONGOING CONVECTION WEAKENING AND REMOVED MENTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AT THE GUYMON AND
DALHART TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 10Z FRIDAY...AND 14Z TO 15Z
FRIDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITION RETURN AFTER 15Z
FRIDAY AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ON TIMING AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION
AFFECTS THE TAF SITES...SO LEFT OUT FOR NOW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE WHETHER CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES AND TIMING IN LATER ISSUANCE. UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z FRIDAY...AND THEN INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 21Z FRIDAY AND 00Z
SATURDAY.

&&

SCHNEIDER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AFTER ABOUT
02Z AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. PERIODS OF VCTS
INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY TIMES TAF SITES COULD BE IMPACTED. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING
KGUY AND KDHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 05Z AND 15Z. SOME BR
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 5SM AT
TIMES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 15Z FOR ALL SITES.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A QUASI-ZONAL PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TX. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING...AND EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OK. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH SOME APPARENT AID FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIPPLE EMBEDDED IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...IS AIDING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CO/NM ROCKIES.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CO AND NM...INCLUDING THE RATON MESA AREA...LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND THEN WORK EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. 0-1KM MLCAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING EAST OFF
THE RATON MESA. LATE THIS EVENING...A 40 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH EASTERLY H85 FLOW
AROUND 30 KTS NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RESULTANT
THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/UPSCALE GROWTH POSSIBLY INTO AN MCS...WITH THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS CAPPING STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OVER AN INCH. FARTHER SOUTH...THERE
HAS BEEN SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BUT STRONG CAPPING HAS
KEPT IT QUITE FLAT THUS FAR. THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP
HERE...BUT IT CERTAINLY CAN/T BE RULED OUT. IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE
TO BREACH THE CAP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE FRONT CONTINUING TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA
BENEATH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES.
HOWEVER THE DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED BY MESOSCALE
FEATURES...NAMELY PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION/MCS ACTIVITY AND
RESULTANT EFFECTS ON POSITION OF THE FRONT/MCS OUTFLOW AND
INSTABILITY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NM...WITH THE FRONT LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND APPROACH OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL LIKELY INITIATE CONVECTION AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CO AND NM...WHICH WILL THEN PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES. SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH AID FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL CO-EXIST WILL LOWER
LCL/S. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL HINGE ON THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...WILL OF COURSE STRONGLY
AFFECT THIS POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS
FRIDAY NIGHT...POSING A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING BY A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT. AGAIN...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES SATURDAY MORNING
THAT COULD AFFECT HOW THINGS ACTUALLY PLAY OUT LATER IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ROLLING ACROSS THE AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW TO BRING IN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.

THINGS LOOK TO SETTLE DOWN/DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON
MONDAY...BUT MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRYING THINGS OUT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING
TAKE HOLD IN WAKE OF A STRONGER DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
401 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-061100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
401 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHEN ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>