Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED EAST OF A PALO DURO CANYON TO LIPSCOMB LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY 7
PM AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 PM. NO OTHER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BACK
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
GUYMON TO DALHART LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY
MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE ACTION. CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY WANE BY 11
PM, BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN'T BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AFTER 12 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE CARDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANY OF THE STORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE SUB-SEVERE, BUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
ANY STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BACK OFF A FEW
DEGREES, BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A
WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES. THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE PANHANDLES
THURSDAY, BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THE FRONT HANGING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND MIXING OUT ON SATURDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DEEP SHEAR INCREASES
TO AROUND 25-30 KT. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

JACKSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  94  68  93  68 /   5  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  70 100  71  98  70 /  10  20  20  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              63  93  64  92  63 /   0  20  20  40  30
BORGER TX                  72  98  71  96  71 /   5  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              69  94  67  94  68 /   0  30  20  30  20
CANYON TX                  68  93  66  92  66 /   5  30  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               69  98  68  96  68 /  10  20  20  10  10
DALHART TX                 64  94  63  94  64 /   0  20  20  40  20
GUYMON OK                  67  99  68  95  67 /   5  20  20  40  30
HEREFORD TX                66  93  65  92  64 /   5  30  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                71  99  70  96  70 /  10  20  20  30  20
PAMPA TX                   68  96  67  95  67 /  10  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  99  68  96  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              72 100  72  97  72 /  10  10  10   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

CLK/JJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

TXZ019-020-242100-
COLLINGSWORTH TX-DONLEY TX-
320 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLLINGSWORTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 320 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF BRICE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
MEMPHIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LELIA LAKE...         HEDLEY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3475 10090 3498 10074 3480 10044 3474 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 218DEG 6KT 3474 10077

CLK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

TXZ017>019-242130-
ARMSTRONG TX-DONLEY TX-RANDALL TX-
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ARMSTRONG...NORTHEASTERN RANDALL
AND WESTERN DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF
GOODNIGHT TO 11 MILES EAST OF PALO DURO CANYON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLAUDE...             GOODNIGHT...          PALO DURO CANYON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3493 10185 3518 10170 3518 10094 3475 10107
      3474 10139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 229DEG 3KT 3503 10126 3497 10148

SIMPSON