Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN COLORADO/NEW MEXICO
AND HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES IN THE PANHANDLES. HAVE
MENTION OF VCTS DURING BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AT EACH SITE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO OUT OF
THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AT
KAMA WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  VERY GOOD PROSPECTS FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST SECTIONS TONIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...AND
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ISENTROPIC
LIFT PATTERN DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING AIRMASS LOADED WITH MOISTURE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS KEPT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.  NO EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

19/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-011100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
634 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WINDS TO 70 MPH. HEAVY RAIN
MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 MIDNIGHT CDT FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE BUT FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
723 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

OKZ001-010115-
CIMARRON OK-
723 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CIMARRON COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM CDT/715 PM MDT/...

AT 719 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 23
MILES NORTH OF KEYES TO 5 MILES NORTH OF KENTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BOISE CITY...         WHEELESS...           KEYES...
  KENTON...             BLACK MESA PARK...    STURGIS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3700 10203 3665 10203 3665 10204 3670 10301
      3700 10301
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 321DEG 16KT 3711 10235 3695 10293

JC