Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS DUE
TO LOW CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME VFR MONDAY. BLOWING
DUST RESULTING IN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES...MAINLY AT THE DALHART TAF
SITE...BUT COULD POSSIBLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT THE GUYMON AND
AMARILLO TAF SITES THROUGH 10Z TO 12Z MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO
35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014/

UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TO COVER STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY
WINDS. ALSO EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE WEST OF THE DRYLINE...AGAIN TO COVER
THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE
THROUGH 2 AM AS SURGING COLD FRONT OVERTAKING DRYLINE MAY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE TORNADO WATCH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES AT 10 PM AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES
AROUND 00Z TO 02Z MONDAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE AMARILLO TAF SITE
AROUND 03Z TO 04Z MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH 20
TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST COULD CAUSE MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL
AROUND 03Z MONDAY. INCREASING HIGH LEVEL AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN BEAVER
COUNTY TO JUST WEST OF CLARENDON THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CU HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR DODGE CITY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. THE STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT BECOMING SEVERE...BUT THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS AND THE WESTERN PART OF OKLAHOMA.
THE MAY THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY SPARK
A FEW MORE SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL
ABOUT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

THIS AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY COLD ONE.
IN FACT WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING
IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE  EITHER
TUESDAY MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA FOR SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LAGER UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODIFY AFTER MID WEEK AND WE WILL START
SEEING TEMPERATURES AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEHIND A
DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE THROUGH MID WEEK AS A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS TAKES OVER AND LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DEAF SMITH...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.

&&

11/08

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 PM     HAIL             MIAMI                   35.69N 100.64W
05/11/2014  E0.88 INCH       ROBERTS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1400344

BUFFALO

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