Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW WITH A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LESS HUMID AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND NRN TACONICS...

AS 1046 PM EDT...A QUICK UPDATE...AS A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING
ACROSS CNTRL NY INTO THE SRN DACKS...AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY WITH
NUMEROUS WIND DAMAGE REPORTS COMING IN. THE REPORTS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN FROM HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTY OF TREES...TREE LIMBS
AND WIRES DOWN. DESPITE THE LAPS SHOWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY
WANING TO 500-1000 J/KG...THE SQUALL LINE SEEMS TO BE PROPAGATING
WELL ALONG ITS COLD POOL. THE THREAT FOR BOWING SEGMENTS...AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
MORNING. NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LTG STRIKES WILL CONTINUE TOO.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LINE TO WEAKEN WITH THE
INSTABILITY WANING...AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE MAIN TIMING WOULD HAVE ACTIVITY REACHING OUR NE ZONES AROUND
03Z-05Z AND EXITING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
BETWEEN 06Z-08Z. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING/GUSTY WINDS...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING ON
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD CONCERNS. THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND RAIN SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS /AT
MOST/ AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND WARM OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING QUITE HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AND CROSSING THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE
A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AS WELL...AS A VORT MAX SWINGING AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC ALLOWS FOR SOME LIFT. IT WON/T BE QUITE AS
WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS IT IS ON TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...AS THE MOIST AIR WON/T BE COMPLETELY PUSHED
OUT JUST YET.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH...A MUCH MORE
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA BUILDS INTO UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LONG STRETCH FOR DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE MIN TEMPS WON/T BE TOO COOL JUST YET
FOR WED NIGHT /MID 50S TO LOW 60S/...MANY AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THURSDAY...AND EVEN
COOLER FOR FRIDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAIR AND DRY AT THE START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER JAMES/HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS DRIER SOLUTIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO AROUND 30 TO 35
PERCENT DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.

LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR TSTMS DURING THAT PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM
CANADA. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LATER FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES...WITH EXPECTED
ARRIVAL BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED
AT THE TAF SITES FOR MVFR TSRA. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED -SHRA AT KPOU IN
THE TEMPO GROUP AS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THERE. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AT THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT 02Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
MAY PRECEDE THE MAIN LINE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS LINE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

THIS LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION BY
08Z...LEAVING BEHIND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A STABLE
NIGHTTIME BOUNDARY LAYER. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR LOW STRATUS AT KALB/KPOU...AND IFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AT KALB FOR IFR FOG ESPECIALLY IF WINDS
SUBSIDE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A BROKEN CUMULUS
DECK AROUND 5 KFT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 4-8
KNOTS TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT
6-12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A WETTING RAINFALL TONIGHT AS A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN A FEW SPOTS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON WED AFTN WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT ON WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AN INITIAL LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BEHIND IT. AT ONE
LOCATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS AT THE MOST.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...LOCALIZED ISSUES...SUCH AS IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS RELATIVELY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. A WARM FRONT MAY RETURN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WASULA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-VTZ013>015-181200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
954 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY.

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-181200-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-
954 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK THAT INCLUDES THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SARATOGA SPRINGS        43.07N  73.78W
06/17/2014                   SARATOGA           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 29

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400134

11

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