Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Albany, NY

086 
WWUS51 KALY 090124
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
924 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

NYC093-090134-
/O.CAN.KALY.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-140709T0145Z/
SCHENECTADY NY-
924 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SCHENECTADY
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV
OR TWITTER @NWSALBANY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4293 7380 4378 7368 4381 7338 4377 7334
      4369 7340 4359 7342 4358 7340 4363 7337
      4363 7332 4356 7325 4297 7329 4296 7362
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 252DEG 44KT 4327 7348

$$

NYC091-113-115-090145-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-140709T0145Z/
WASHINGTON NY-WARREN NY-SARATOGA NY-
924 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN SARATOGA...EASTERN WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 922 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR 
DURKEETOWN...OR NEAR HUDSON FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BELCHER...EAST HARTFORD...SOUTH HARTFORD AND WEST HEBRON BY 930 PM
  EDT...
  BRAYMER SCHOOL...SLATEVILLE...NORTH HEBRON AND PORTER BY 935 PM
  EDT...
  8 MILES SOUTH OF MIDDLE GRANVILLE BY 940 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV
OR TWITTER @NWSALBANY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 7380 4378 7368 4381 7338 4377 7334
      4369 7340 4359 7342 4358 7340 4363 7337
      4363 7332 4356 7325 4297 7329 4296 7362
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 252DEG 44KT 4327 7348

$$

NAS/IRL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY BRINGING DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE
COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TURN A LITTLE LESS HUMID WEDNESDAY...BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES ALL EASTERN
NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATED THE PUBLIC PACKAGE TO INCLUDE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.

HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...ALONG
WITH TWO SEPARATE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED UPSTREAM. THIS LINE
WAS MOVING INTO INSTABILITY AROUND SURFACE BASED CAPES STILL AROUND
2000 J/KG. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OFF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S (SPC)
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS WAS UP TO 60 KTS!

LOOK FOR THE LINE TO WORK THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND REACH THE
CAPITAL REGION AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE 900 PM. THIS LINE IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER...WILL REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE 1000 PM.

BY MIDNIGHT...THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST. IN ITS WAKE
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR...FIRST
ALOFT...EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE. THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER RENEGADE
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT BUT THE LION SHARE OF ACTION WILL
BE DONE WITH OVERNIGHT.

WE MIGHT HAVE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE
SOUTHWEST BREEZE DIMINISHES AND GROUND IS ESPECIALLY WET FROM
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR LOWS STILL ON THE MUGGY SIDE...GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA WILL STILL BE A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR (PWATS UNDER AN INCH) ACROSS OUR REGION TO
START THE DAY. WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND ONE MORE COLD FRONT
TO WORK THROUGH...WE STILL LOOK TO BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH A
LITTLE MOISTURE RELOADING THAT COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 1500 J/KG WITH LAPSE RATES UP TO 6.5 C/KM. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A BRISK LOW LEVEL WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 40KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY COULD AT THE VERY LEAST PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW...WE DID NOT INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORKING IN THE GRIDS SINCE THE CONFIDENCE OF STORMS IN ONLY IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN...75-80
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH...SHIFTING TO
WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER THAT IT WILL CLEAR OUT...TURNING A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S) AND HIGHS AROUND 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR AND COOL. LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED
LOWER HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE 80-85 VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE 80S...SOME
UPPER 70S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AND SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.  HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH TYPE CONVECTION INCREASES IN THE
REGION.  HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 80S...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AT THIS
TIME...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY
BUT AS ALWAYS THE TIMING COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL VERY LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

AS OF 2320Z...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADVANCING INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND LOOKS TO REACH THE TAFS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

BASED ON UPSTREAM ASOS OBSERVATIONS WE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS
FROM 01Z-03Z AT KALB/KGFL AND 30-35KTS AT KPOU/KPSF. KEEP IN
MIND...THE WINDS COULD EVEN GUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT.

THE LINE LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 04Z. AFTER THAT...A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS...SHIFTING THE WIND AND ALLOWING FOR SLOW
DRYING. THE DILEMMA IS HOW FAST THIS DRYING ARRIVES. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED PERHAPS NO MVFR WITH JUST LIGHT MIST POSSIBLE. IF ANY OF
TERMINALS RECEIVE AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WE MIGHT HAVE TO
RETHINK THIS SCENARIO.

SO IF YOU ARE FLYING EARLY TOMORROW...PLEASE CHECK BACK OUR LATEST
THINKING.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER THE MORNING PEAK
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE WIND WILL BE SW OR WEST
AROUND 10KTS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND NOW WE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AFTER 18Z TO REFLECT
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY
SPECIFIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING WITH A
LEAST A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE RAIN WILL FALL FOR ONLY A SHORT DURATION AND AT
NIGHT...DID NOT ASSIGN A WET FLAG TO OUR NFDRS.

DRIER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
HOWEVER...MOSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT
NOT EVERYONE WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THEM.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVER (AND SOME DEW) AT NIGHT...AND SEASONABLE
AFTER RH HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S TO 40 EACH AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT 5-15 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL HEAD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING. WHILE OVER AVERAGE RAINFALL BASINS WILL UNDER AN
INCH...LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY LOCALLY
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING BUT NOT ENOUGH AREA TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH YET.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO TOMORROW...BUT THE AIR MASS LOOKS
TO BE REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED
PONDING OF WATER ON SOME ROADS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-091100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
634 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
835 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. JOHNSVILLE          43.00N  74.68W
07/08/2014                   MONTGOMERY         NY   PUBLIC

            WIRES DOWN ON A HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400314

BEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
841 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCHUYLER CORNERS        42.90N  75.00W
07/08/2014                   HERKIMER           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOCKING ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400315

BEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
842 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWPORT                 43.19N  75.02W
07/08/2014                   HERKIMER           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AND ON FIRE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400316

BEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
843 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POLAND                  43.23N  75.06W
07/08/2014                   HERKIMER           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN COUNTYWIDE...TREE AND
            WIRES ON HOUSE AND WIRES ON ROAD IN POLAND-NORWAY

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400312

BEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
854 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W BATCHELLERVILLE     43.21N  74.10W
07/08/2014                   SARATOGA           NY   RETIRED NWS EMP.

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400317

BEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
908 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE TRIBES HILL       42.95N  74.28W
07/08/2014                   MONTGOMERY         NY   PUBLIC

            LIMBS DOWN ON WIRES JUST OFF MOHAWK ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400318

BEW