Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
208 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL AND
WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OF ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172 IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER IN NY...

AS OF 2 PM EDT...THE COMBINATION OF ONE POTENT VORT MAX ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALSO
ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
INTO THE 7 C/KM OR GREATER RANGE...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AND ALSO THERE IS SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED.

SO...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS FOR
SCATTERED...LOOSELY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...WITH MARGINALLY LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT HAIL IS
THE MAIN THREAT.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY STABLE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF A MODIFIED MARINE LAYER...AND
RAIN COOLED AIR FROM THIS MORNING/S RAINFALL EXISTS. IN
FACT...SOME TEMPS IN PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES REMAIN IN THE 50S.
THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MUCH LOWER FOR THIS AREA...HENCE NO WATCH.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH IN CASE ANY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
REMNANTS CAN PENETRATE INTO THIS REGION.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER...WITH 60S TO NEAR 70 NEAR AND JUST W OF THE
RIVER...AND LOWER TO PERHAPS SOME MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH HEIGHTS FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD POOL WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED/DEEPEN BUT
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW POSITIONED BETWEEN
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING TO OUR WEST.
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL COLD ALOFT...WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH FLOW AND DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS FRIDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND SUPPORT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITTING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR AREA WILL STILL ALLOW A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY SUNNY...AND WITH
850 HPA TEMPS OF AROUND 9-10 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 70S IN MANY AREAS.

THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING ITS TIME MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA...AND WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
LOW THREAT FOR A RAIN SHOWER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

STRONG UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FOR MEMORIAL DAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY HIGHS MAY
MAKE A RUN AT 80 DEGREES...WITH 70S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANCE
ON OUR WEATHER FOR THE EARLY TO MID PART OF THE WEEK. AS OUR AREA
WILL ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MAY RIDE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE DAY OF THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DURING DAYTIME
HEATING ON TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  WARM
TEMPS ALOFT /AROUND 10 DEGREES C AT 850 HPA/ WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S FOR TUES/WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. BY LATER IN THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL
WIN OUT...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS LOOKS
TO ALLOW FOR A REDUCED THREAT FOR PRECIP LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER...THAT WOULD IMPACT KALB AND KGFL FOR NOW. AS OF 1210 PM
EDT...A THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING TOWARD KGFL.

AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...RADAR ALREADY INDICATED MORE SHOWERS AND
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES.

FOR NOW...DID NOT MENTION ACTUAL THUNDER IN THE TAFS (OUTSIDE OF
KGFL) AS THE PROBABILITY OF ANY TAF BEING DIRECTLY IMPACT BY A
THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE BELOW 50 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE IS
THERE AND WE CERTAINLY BELIEVE AT LEAST SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
TAFS PRETTY MUCH FROM 20Z ON.

CONDITIONS WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND KPSF.

ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DIMINISH BY DARK. TONIGHT WE
WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS...LOWERING TO LOW MVFR CIGS (IFR CIGS AT KGFL
AND KPSF). THERE COULD SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND ALONG
WITH SOME MIST.

ON FRIDAY...CIGS LOOK TO RISE BACK INTO HIGH MVFR OR VFR RANGE BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY
LOWER THEM BACK INTO THE LOWER MVFR OR EVEN IFR. FOR NOW...DID NOT
REFLECT THIS POSSIBLE TREND THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL AND
WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OF ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS.
HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE
FORECAST...LOOKING AT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO
AN INCH. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

NYZ032-033-038>042-047>052-058-059-063-064-082-083-231200-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
101 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY...THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THE
LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

IN ADDITION...SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE...LOW
LYING AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE SLOW MOVING AND MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ043-053-054-060-061-065-066-084-VTZ013>015-
231200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-WESTERN RENSSELAER-
EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
101 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
310 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     HAIL             HAGAMAN                 42.97N  74.15W
05/22/2014  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         NY   FACEBOOK

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400034

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             PERTH                   43.01N  74.19W
05/22/2014  E1.25 INCH       FULTON             NY   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400035

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
315 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             PERTH                   43.01N  74.19W
05/22/2014  E1.25 INCH       FULTON             NY   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400036

IRL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
316 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

NYZ033-221945-
HAMILTON NY-
316 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...

AT 314 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
LEWEY LAKE CAMPGROUND...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SPECULATOR...LEWEY LAKE CAMPGROUND AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOFFITT
BEACH CAMPGROUND BY 345 PM EDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK.

LAT...LON 4362 7421 4340 7451 4345 7475 4365 7478
      4379 7468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 300DEG 16KT 4367 7463

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             AMSTERDAM               42.94N  74.19W
05/22/2014  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         NY   PUBLIC

            AMSTERDAM HIGH SCHIOOL

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400037

IRL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
322 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

NYZ047-221945-
SCHOHARIE NY-
322 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  SCHOHARIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH BLENHEIM...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF
COBLESKILL...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NORTH BLENHEIM AND BREAKABEEN BY 330 PM EDT
GILBOA AND 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIVINGSTONVILLE BY 345 PM EDT

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM...BRING AROUND HALF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH 350 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK.

LAT...LON 4246 7465 4261 7452 4250 7423 4242 7427
      4239 7425 4238 7425 4236 7429 4235 7435
      4237 7439 4235 7445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 302DEG 14KT 4249 7448

HWJIV