Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
239 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT...OUR REGION SITS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SA
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
BUBBLE UP STARTING IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TRICKLING DOWN INTO
VALLEY LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO STARTING TO
APPEAR ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS AND NORTHERN AREAS. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
CURRENT MID LAPSE RATES VALUES BETWEEN 6.5 C/KM AND 7 C/KM. T500
ON THE LATEST 07/12 MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A COLD POCKET
BETWEEN -18C AND -20C OVER OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CHANCE FOR SOME HAIL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW ROGUE THUNDERSTORMS STILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL...MOST THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
12Z MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL MIXING
WITH A DEFINED INVERTED V-SHAPED SOUNDING...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS IN AND SOUND THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION POINTS NORTH
WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SURPASS CONVECTION TEMPERATURE
AS DEPICTED IN THE 12Z SOUNDING.THIS POSES THE RISK OF SOME GUSTY
WINDS ACCOMPANYING THESE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECASTED SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1100 J/KG WILL FURTHER EXHIBITED A GREATER PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERED BY DIURNAL
HEATING.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER DUE TO COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL AID IN WARMING. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN
EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS DEPICTED EARLIER FROM UPPER LEVEL DATA
OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS THE
CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. IT WILL BE A COOL
NIGHT...BUT A SLIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL KEEP IT SOMEWHAT WARMER
IN FAVORED AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WE WILL TRANSITION FROM A CYCLONIC TO NEUTRAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. HOWEVER...ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT ENOUGH
FORCING EXPECTED TO MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA...AND
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS WITH CONTINUED COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE DESCENT IN THE ATM COLUMN
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GLOBAL AND NUMERICAL 07/12
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF
A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ALONG WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ACTING AS A LIFTING MECHANISM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE REGION AS WE APPROACH
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSE A THREAT AS THE
FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A STALLED FRONT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT BASED
OFF THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -17 TO -19 DEGREES CELSIUS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH A VCSH IN
TAFS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD POOL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
AT KALB AND KPSF DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN
THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PONDING OF WATER
IN URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
243 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-081100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
243 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

NYZ042-043-071730-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-NORTHERN WARREN NY-
101 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 100 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HAGUE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF WHITEHALL...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HULETTS LANDING BY 110 PM EDT
WHITEHALL BY 130 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4377 7334 4375 7336 4372 7336 4369 7340
      4359 7342 4358 7340 4363 7337 4363 7332
      4353 7323 4346 7324 4342 7349 4375 7355
      4380 7337
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 344DEG 14KT 4370 7342

IRL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

NYZ043-084-VTZ013-071745-
BENNINGTON VT-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-
122 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 118 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SALEM...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SALEM BY 130 PM EDT
8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMBRIDGE BY 145 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4302 7339 4328 7350 4334 7326 4309 7310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 338DEG 17KT 4322 7333

IRL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

NYZ084-VTZ013-071815-
BENNINGTON VT-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-
143 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 140 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SALEM...OR ABOUT OVER SALEM...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CAMBRIDGE BY 205 PM EDT
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARLINGTON BY 210 PM EDT
SHAFTSBURY BY 215 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4302 7307 4295 7337 4317 7348 4323 7327
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 336DEG 16KT 4314 7333

IRL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
233 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

NYZ041-043-083-084-071900-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
233 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HUDSON
FALLS...OR ABOUT OVER HUDSON FALLS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALEM AND 9 MILES NORTH OF GREENWICH BY 300 PM
EDT

LAT...LON 4318 7326 4305 7350 4334 7370 4344 7349
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 329DEG 15KT 4331 7353

IRL/HWJIV

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