Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Wakefield, VA

Dorchester County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Accomack County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, James City County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1020 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...THEN STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSCTD WITHAN EASTERN MOVING TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE WILL LIKELY DIM THE
SUN AT TIMES BUT EXPECT IT TO BE A PT TO M SUNNY AND MILD DAY
AHEAD. BREEZY AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO BTWN 15-25 MPH. BUMPED UP
TMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND DATA. HIGHS M50S
TO L60S. ENJOY TODAY AS SEASONS ARE ABOUT TO RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

NOTE...BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...ADDED THE VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES
AND A FEW COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THE BAY TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD DRIVE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE OHIO/TN VLYS THIS
EVENING. AFTER A CLEAR START, WL NOTE INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT W/ PRE-FRONTAL WAA. EXPECT LOWS IN THE U20S FAR NW...TO
LOW 30S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BUSINESS LOOKS TO PICK UP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BEGIN THE DAY
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE MOIST SOLUTION AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BEFORE EJECTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL, WHILE THE NAM TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHEST SOUTH, WE STAYED
CLOSER TO A GGEM/UKMET/GFS BLEND WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SLUG OF BEST CONVERGENCE/LIFT. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 (UPPER
JET), ALONG WITH 285K PRESSURE ADVECTION/RH FIELD PER THE ABOVE
MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD PAINT A VERY MESSY PICTURE LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THE CLIPPER AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. STRONG CAA STILL PROGGED TO KICK IN DURING
THE AFTN. THUS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND NOON/SHORTLY THEREAFTER
SOUTHEAST WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTN. POPS HAVE BEEN
SHUNTED UPWARD INTO HIGH LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
FOR TUESDAY.

WHEREAS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE CUT AND DRIED
FARTHER NORTH AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTHEAST, THEY APPEAR TO BE A
BIT MORE TRICKY ACROSS OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF
THE RICHMOND METRO. ONE LOOK AT LATEST SREF PLUMES SHOWS A WIDE
ARRAY OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS FORWARDED BY MEMBER ENSEMBLES...WHICH
DOES NOT INSPIRE FORECAST CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT
THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT QPF TOTALS
JUST 12-18 SHORT HOURS AGO. HOWEVER, WITH BETWEEN 0.2 AND 0.4" OF
QPF...AND SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONSIDERING
THE IMMINENT INCURSION OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS...WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWS ARE CERTAINLY FEASIBLE AS BEST FGEN FORCING PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTN. WL GO WITH WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
RICHMOND METRO NORTH TO THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE...INCLUDING
NORTHERN NECK. FARTHER SOUTH, WEAKER PCPN RATE AWAY FROM BEST FGEN
FORCING WILL MAKE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
CERTAINLY, THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED...BUT GIVEN PREFERRED
MODEL SOLUTION, EXPECT BEST SNOWFALL TOTALS NORTH OF RIC METRO
OVER TO THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE. A GENERAL 3-6
INCLUDED IN WSW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE HIGHER TOTALS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SNOW SHOULD END ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MUCH
COLDER ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ATTENTION
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK (LIGHT)
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND TIDEWATER AREAS. WIND
TRAJECTORY QUICKLY TURNS 350-360 AS THICKNESSES CRASH AND H92-85
TEMPS FALL TO ~-18C. STILL QUITE WARY OF POTENTIAL FOR BAY
ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW SHRAS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HV GONE WITH SNOW
WORDING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER. CERTAINLY NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS STAGE...BUT JUMP IN SREF PROBABILITIES AND
SYNOPTIC SETUP WARRANTS A BIT HARDER WORDING IN DIGITAL FORECAST.

BECAUSE OF THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER SURFACE LOW (TIGHTER
GRADIENT BRINGS MORE WIND) AND EXPECTED SNOW ON THE GROUND, TEMPS
HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WED/THU NIGHT.
EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO NUDGE BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WED.

STRONG CAA KICKS IN CONTINUES WED MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
LATE. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED. THE
STRONG/GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 1.5-2 STD DEV BELOW
NORMAL. KEPT SC CLOUD DECK ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES ERY WED AS H8
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -16 TO -18C. ALTHOUGH NOT THE PERFECT WIND
DIRECTION (340 VS 360)...SOME BAY EFFECT STREAMERS AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHRAS POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS WED MORN. KEPT SLIGHT CHC
POP FOR NOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WELL-BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATION BACK TOWARD NORMAL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DRY WX THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ECMWF IS STILL
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE SERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S THURS/FRIDAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS. HIGHS POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE 40S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTN AS A VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS WILL BE LESS INTENSE THAN THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20 KT.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND STALLS ALONG THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TUE MORNING AND STARTS TO TRACK NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE AFTN. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE NE STATES ON TUE. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE
MORNING AND STRENGTHEN TUE AFTN AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRIMARILY BE
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR FAR SE VA/NE NC WHERE PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TURN TO ALL SNOW BY TUE NIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER HIGH AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KRIC AND KSBY.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW CIGS/VIS/PRECIP
LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON WIND SPEEDS OR WAVES/SEAS. SW-W WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-DAY AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AOB 15 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND STALLS ALONG THE CAROLINAS ON TUE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TUE
MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUE AFTN AND THEN WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA DURING TUE
EVENING. MEANWHILE...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL USHER A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS INTO THE NE STATES WHICH WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON TUE. THE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS
DIFFERENCES BTWN THE CANADIAN HIGH AND COASTAL LOW WILL CAUSE THE
SFC TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN DRAMATICALLY BY TUE AFTN.
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SCA SPEEDS TUE MORNING ALL WATERS AND
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TUE AFTN THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. INITIALLY...SPEEDS OF 20-30 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED ON CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS TUE AFTN WHILE
CURRITUCK SOUND/ERN VA RIVERS SHOULD MAINLY SEE SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT.
BY EARLY TUE EVENING...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS/CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH AT LEAST WED
AFTN BEFORE WINDS DIP DOWN INTO SOLID SCA SPEEDS AOB 33 KT.
MEANWHILE...SEAS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND QUICKLY TO THE
INTENSIFYING GRADIENTS STARTING TUE AFTN. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9 FT
AND WAVES BUILDING TO 4-6 FT ON CHES BAY SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED TUE
AFTN THROUGH MOST OF WED BEFORE SIGNIFICANT WAVES HEIGHTS SUBSIDE. A
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND FOR TUE EVENING THROUGH LATE WED AFTN. FOR ERN VA RIVERS
DURING THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SOLID SCA SPEEDS
(20-33 KT) TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO TAPER
OFF. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER TO EXPERIENCE
GALE FORCE GUSTS TUE NIGHT SINCE THE HAMPTON ROADS PENINSULA TENDS
TO PROTECT THE RIVER FROM NORTH WINDS. HAVE THUS KEPT THE LOWER
JAMES RIVER OUT OF THE GALE WATCH FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY. ALSO...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW FREEZING TUE EVENING INTO WED WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

THE WATERS SHOULD FINALLY START TO CALM BY WED EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THE WATERS AND HELPS TO STABILIZE THE ADVERSE
CONDITIONS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR CROSSING THE WATERS ON THU. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL WATERS
SOMETIME THU AFTN THROUGH THU NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA ALL HAZARD WEATHER RADIO (KHB-57) EMANATING FROM DRIVER,
VA ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.550 MHZ WILL BE OFF THE AIR UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE DUE TO ANTENNA PROBLEMS. RETURN TO NORMAL SERVICE IS NOT
KNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-082>086-090-099-
     100.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JDM

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