Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
BUILDS SOUTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION...WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED FROM EASTERN NY STATE TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALOFT...A
DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED TO THE SE OF HUDSON BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE WSW FLOW ALOFT...THE MOST NOTABLE OVER CENTRAL/WRN
NC. AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA...ONE AFFECTING THE PIEDMONT AND ANOTHER TO THE SE FROM
NORTHAMPTON NC TO THE PENINSULA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE
AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON THIS SETUP (WITH GENLY SCATTERED
30-50% COVERAGE ELSEWHERE). A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY
OCCUR BUT OVERALL MOST OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS MORE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 MPH. LATER THIS
EVENING...HAVE LIKELY POPS FOCUSED OVER SE VA.INTERIOR NE NC PER LATEST
UPSTREAM RADAR AS WELL AS HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT. WARM/HUMID
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A TAD COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S W/NW TO LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
LOCAL AREA ON THU. MAKES SENSE GIVEN A FLATTENING WSW FLOW ALOFT
ALIGNING NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE SFC FRONT. HAVE BUMPED AFTN
POPS UP TO LIKELY ACRS SE VA/NE NC...WITH HIGH CHC (50%) IN
CENTRAL VA...ALTHOUGH IF TRENDS HOLD COULD SEE THESE AREAS NEEDING
LIKELY POPS AS WELL. TEMPS HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVERAGE/PCPN. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN MOVG S/W ENERGY NE ALONG THE STALLED
BNDRY THURS NIGHT THRU ERLY FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. GIVEN THIS TREND...INCREASED BOTH CLOUD
COVERAGE AND POPS FOR THIS PRD. SLOW MOVG...TRAINING ECHOES COULD
PRODUCE LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE SERN HALF OF FA
THUS QPF HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED. LOWS THU NIGHT M60S-L70S.
HIGHS FRI M-U80S.

TOTAL QPF THRU FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM BTWN 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ACROSS
NWRN CNTYS...1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS CNTRL SCTNS OF FA TO BTWN 1-2
INCHES ACROSS SERN VA...2+ INCHES PSBL ACROSS NERN NC.

GENLY DRIER SAT AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT BUT WILL KEEP A 20-30%
POP OVER THE FAR NW AND IN SE VA/NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES WILL PUSH ANOTHER
ANOMALOUS TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WET CONDITIONS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SEASONABLY WARM
AS MUCH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE LOCKED WEST OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ONGOING RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SUN COMPARED TO SAT.
THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN WITH SFC TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A MOIST BL WILL RESULT IN
MLCAPE VALUES ~1500 J/KG. MODEL DERIVED PRECIP WATERS RANGE FROM
1.75 TO 2 INCHES. WHILE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOK FAVORABLE...BEST
DYNAMICS/FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SHEAR IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE
AND SOUNDINGS DEPICT SUBSIDENCE/WARM AIR ALOFT. WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS IN THE NW...TAPERING OFF TO SILENT IN THE SE. BETTER COVERAGE
EXPECTED MON AS HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE
BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE MON...SHARPENING THE
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WARMER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
PUSH MLCAPE VALUES HIGHER...BUT SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL (AOB 20 KT).
THE RESULT WILL BE SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUES-TUES NIGHT.
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WILL TREND TOWARD A BLEND BTWN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE...KEEPING THE BEST POPS ALONG THE COAST TUES. BASED ON THE
AIRMASS...WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING
AS THE FRONT CROSS THE REGION. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUES INTO SE CANADA...SLOWING THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ATTM...BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS
BASED ON THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONABLE NORMS...WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S-LOW 90S THRU THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE TUES TO BE THE WARMEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S...WITH MID
70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD FA AS A SURFACE TROUGH
AND A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO INITIATE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADAR TRENDS SHOW BEST
PLACEMENT OF STORMS AT KRIC THROUGH 22Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY TO KPHF/KORF/KECG...BUT TIMING IN
TAFS IS DIFFICULT AS OF 18Z FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER OH/CENTRAL NY WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. THIS WILL AGAIN
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THUR AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH S-SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. HIGHER
WAVES OBSERVED IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...REACHING 4 FT 20 NM OUT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER THE REGION THURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NE STATES THURS...REMAINING OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU FRI NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THUR-FRI...REMAINING SUB
SCA AT 10 KT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST SAT INTO
SUN...PHASING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. FLOW
VEERS TO THE SOUTH SUN...REMAINING SUB SCA AT 10-15 KT. SEAS REMAIN
2-3 FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MON AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OH VALLEY. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT-MON...BUT REMAINS SUB-SCA. PERSISTENT SLY
FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS TO 4 FT IN THE NRN WATERS...BUT ANTICIPATE SEAS
TO REMAIN UNDER 5 FT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUES NIGHT-WED
MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...SAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-100745-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
339 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

44

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