Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS AFTN...PROVIDING
WARM/MODERATELY HUMID AMS INTO/OVR THE RGN ON SW WNDS.
MEANWHILE...CDFNT APPROACHING FM THE ERN OH VALLEY...TRAILING BACK
TO THE WNW TO LO PRES INVOF SD. EARLIER MNLY SHRAS ACRS N AND NW
SECTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BECOME MORE SCT SO FAR THIS AFTN...WHILE
RIBBON OF SCT TSTMS DVLPG ACRS (MNLY) SRN/SE VA INVOF BEST
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

THROUGH THE EVE HRS...WILL CONT TO HAVE SCT-LIKELY POPS...ESP N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER. FEW STMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WNDS
AND HAIL...THOUGH SVR PARAMETER WEAK/MARGINAL AT BEST. 50DBZ CORES
TO ABT 28-29KFT ALG W/ VILS ARND 50 APR TO BE ENOUGH FOR
CONSIDERATION OF SVR WX.

ONCE THE SFC BOUNDARY/UPPER TROUGH CLEARS AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD
SEE DRYING WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING. HANGING
ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 12Z/11. LO TEMPS
FM THE U50S NW TO M60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLIDES OFF THE COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL SE US RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF. SKIES AVG P/M SUNNY BOTH
DAYS. N/NW LOW LEVEL FLOW SUN MORNING DIMINISHES BY MIDDAY AS THE
SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTN.
HIGHS WELL INLAND WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVG...GENLY INTO THE L/M80S...BUT
WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.

MNLY SKC SUN NGT WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U50S TO L60S.

SFC WINDS TURN MORE TO THE SSW ON MON...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 F WELL
INLAND WITH M70S TO M 80S ON THE ERN SHORE AND RIGHT ON THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF RIDGE BUILD/MOVING OVR THE RGN LT SUN
THROUGH MON XPCD TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVR THE RGN.
TRACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LIKELY TO RMN N OF THE RGN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVING FROM AN UPR RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...TO A TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY.
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE DELMARVA WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
RESIDE. WILL TEMPER MAX TEMPS EXPECTATIONS THERE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY/THURS NIGHT...
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD AGAIN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. COOLER AIRMASS
THEN MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD/WITH THE FRONT FROM WED-FRI.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ON WED...EXCEPT COOLER 60S/70S FOR
THE DELMARVA. MAX TEMPS BY THURSDAY IN THE 70S/80S...THEN IN THE 70S
EVERYWHERE NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS THE AKQ CWA DUE TO
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER THE AREA.
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN 18Z TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SHRA WITH MVFR VIS WAS INCLUDED TO RELAY THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FIZZLES OUT OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY LATE SUN
MORNING.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC RETROGRADES OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SSW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ARE PREVAILING ACRS THE WTRS...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...UNTIL A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE W OR NW. HI PRES WILL BLD
OVR THE AREA DURING SUN...THEN SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLC CST FOR MON
INTO WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM NNE TO S FM EARLY SUN AFTN INTO LATE
SUN NGT. EXPECT S OR SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS FOR MON THRU TUE. WAVES
1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED FM TODAY THRU TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
248 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-111900-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
248 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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