Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1008 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY (IN NW STEERING FLOW) OVERRUNS A VERY WEAK TROUGH THAT IS
SITUATED FROM THE DELMARVA TO FAR SE VA TO COASTAL NE NC. A QUICK
SHOT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE
BELOW 15 MPH...THEREFORE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NOT
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
TRAVELLING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HWY 460 TRAVEL CORRIDOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE REALLY FALLEN APART EARLY THIS
EVENING AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE REDUCED
POPS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THERE IS
NOW SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO
OVERRUNNING OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH. NW STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THETA-E SFCS SUGGEST THAT A NW-SE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN INTO A W-E ORIENTATION OVERNIGHT AND COULD
KEEP SHOWERS LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION WRT PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT (NO
HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT FAR NRN COUNTIES OF INLAND VA AND THE MD/VA
LOWER EASTERN SHORE). THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY AND AM
THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ISSUES WITH FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM THE N BEHIND THE SHRTWV ENERGY ON TUE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SW IN THE AFTN.
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FM 65-70 NEAR
THE CST...TO THE LWR TO MID 70S WELL INLAND. THE FRONT OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL THEN LIFT BACK NNE ACRS THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU
MORNG...AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SLGT OR SML CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/ISLTD TSTMS...ESPLY OVR WRN AND NRN CNTIES. LOWS TUE NGT
IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NNE OF THE LWR MD ERN SHR THU
AFTN...AS UPR RDG OF HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA. WARMER
SSW WINDS AND A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 "BERMUDA" RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SERN COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WARM FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FA
TO GET INTO THE SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. LOWS THU NIGHT
U50S-L60S. HIGHS FRI 85-90...XCPT U70S-L80S BEACH AREAS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WRT HOW FAR EAST & SOUTH THE APPRCHG COLD
FRONT FROM THE MID WEST CAN GET GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS DO SLOWLY INCREASE MOISTURE OVER TIME SO
HAVE KEPT CHC CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH HIGHER POPS WRN HALF OF FA.
HIGHS SAT-MON...80-85. LOWS 60-65.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE PASSED QUICKLY THROUGH THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
TAF SITES LATE MONDAY AFTN...BRINGING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF RAIN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PCPN IS PSBL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WHICH COULD AFFECT SBY BUT LEFT PCPN OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.
THERE WAS STILL A 30 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD THERE AT 23Z.
WILL REEVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING OR WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

MOISTURE ON THE GROUND AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES AND CALM TO
LIGHT WINDS COULD POSE SOME CIG OR VSBY ISSUES FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MOS FORECASTS SUPPORT MVFR CIGS. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR BUT SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE FAIRLY LOW AND THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT WIDESPREAD
IFR WILL DEVELOP. THE MOST CONCERN WOULD BE AT ECG. MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL MIDDAY TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
(5 KTS OR LESS) AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. SURFACE WINDS BECOME
NE IN THE AFTN.

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH THIS PASSAGE APPEARS RATHER SLIM
AT THIS POINT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN ARRIVES SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRS OVER THE REGION RESULTS IS A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THRU WED. EXPECT WINDS AOB 15 KTS...SEAS 2-3 FT.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN THE
FLOW TO BECOME SW FRI AND REMAIN SW THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BERMUDA
HIGH DOMINATES KEEPING ANY FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT MATTOAX HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. AS OF 915 PM EDT...WATER LEVELS HAD FALLEN TO 20.90 FT
WHICH IS JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-061945-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
332 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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