Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
443 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA TODAY AND STALLS OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES 1023MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ME...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
S-CENTRAL PA SE THROUGH E-CENTRAL VA TO THE LOWER BAY. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GOES TPW PRODUCTS INDICATE PW
VALUES AROUND 1.7IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...OR ON AVERAGE ABOUT
150% OF NORMAL...WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING OVER THE SUB-
TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE AREA OF CLEARING FROM EASTERN NC TO CENTRAL/ERN VA...WITH
ONLY A FEW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.

THE MIDWEST LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE TODAY...WITH A SECONDARY
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING N WITHIN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE EAST COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN STEEP MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE (FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION) IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A THETA-E AXIS OVER E-CENTRAL VA...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
COINCIDE WITH LI VALUES OF -5 TO -7. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED
TO BE 20-30KT...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT (COMBINED WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY) TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION...IF NOT
A FEW SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MINIMAL
TORNADO RISK (5% PER SPC OUTLOOK) ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER VA
COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY INITIATE AFTER 19-20Z...WITH FORECAST
POPS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RANGING FROM 20% ALONG
THE COAST (ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY) TO 40-60% OVER THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S FROM INTERIOR NE NC TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
PIEDMONT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MILD MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THURSDAY AND THEN SWINGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. EXPECT AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S (LOW-MID 80S IMMEDIATE COAST) AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS WILL BE TAPERED OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BEING CONFINED ALONG AND S OF THE VA/NC BORDER
SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY TREND DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...WITH CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
THE CUT-OFF ENERGY OVER THE GULF STATES (OR VICINITY) AS MODELS TEND
TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE FEATURES. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CUT-OFF LOW...BUILDING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA
SUN. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST INTO ONTARIO...AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH...A GOOD
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE ERN GULF IS EXPECTED INTO THE SE COASTAL
PLAIN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AS SATURDAYS COLD FRONT STALLS/WEAKENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUN...MAINLY OVER THE CAROLINAS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SRN ZONES AS BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THAT
REGION. FARTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN LEE/THERMAL TROUGHING OVER CNTRL VA. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PUSH OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN S-SW FLOW. THE
RESULT WILL BE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION MON WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NEWD MON...LIFTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION (OR VICINITY). THIS WILL AID IN UVM. WILL TREND
POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE STATES THROUGH WEDS. WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON-EVENING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUES-WEDS. HOWEVER...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN GULF...CUTTING OFF THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE INTO THE SERN COASTAL PLAINS.

WARM TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SAT PIX AND SFC OBS INDICATED ONSHORE (EASTERLY) FLO
BRINGING STRATUS AND LWR SC (500-1500 FT) INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACRS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA. E WINDS WILL BECOME SE LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENG...THEN TURN TO THE S LATE TNGT INTO THU MORNG. SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED NEAR/OVR VA/NC TAF SITES THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT...WITH LWR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR OR IFR (LIFR?) AT SBY RIGHT THRU THU MORNG...DUE TO
ESE FLO.

OUTLOOK...AN UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY AFTN AND
EVENG TSTMS THRU AT LEAST FRI. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR MVFR/IFR
FOG OR STRATUS THU AND FRI MORNGS. TSTM CHCS DECREASE OVER THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND HI PRES
BLDS OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INLAND VA AND NC. BEHIND THE FRONT...ELY FLOW OVER THE WATER HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KT. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.
LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT BWTN LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WATER. ANTICIPATE
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

MDZ021>025-VAZ098>100-122100-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
448 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>097-122100-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
448 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>