Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
322 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM STORM SURVEY TEAM INDICATES BOTH TORNADIC
AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND / HAIL DAMAGE. STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED WHEN
SURVEY IS COMPLETED.

CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH PRODUCED
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY IMPULSE TO BE
THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTRN AND
EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE
THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES
MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS...
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z
FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-251930-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
326 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
315 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VAZ048-061-062-068-069-242015-
AMELIA-CUMBERLAND-FLUVANNA-GOOCHLAND-POWHATAN-
315 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS AMELIA...CUMBERLAND...
FLUVANNA...GOOCHLAND AND POWHATAN COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 314 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FIFE TO TRENTS
MILL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HADENSVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CUMBERLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

AREAS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE CUMBERLAND AROUND 330 PM
EDT...
  TRENHOLM AROUND 340 PM EDT...
  SUNNYSIDE AROUND 350 PM EDT...
  TOBACCOVILLE AROUND 355 PM EDT...
  MACON AROUND 405 PM EDT...
  POWHATAN AROUND 410 PM EDT...

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH CAN CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

LAT...LON 3754 7832 3764 7825 3768 7824 3769 7827
      3770 7828 3780 7808 3761 7780 3738 7812
      3751 7834

JFOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VAZ063-070-071-083-242045-
CHESTERFIELD-HANOVER-HENRICO-NEW KENT-
349 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DOWNTOWN RICHMOND...HENRICO...
CHESTERFIELD...HANOVER AND NEW KENT COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 349 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DOWNTOWN RICHMOND...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR MONTROSE...AND...RICHMOND
HEIGHTS AT 355 PM EDT...VARINA AT 400 PM EDT...RICHMOND
INTERNATIONAL...AND...FAIR OAKS AT 405 PM EDT...SANDSTON AT 410 PM
EDT...GLENDALE AT 415 PM EDT.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

LAT...LON 3759 7721 3740 7722 3743 7754 3756 7754

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VAZ062-068>070-242100-
AMELIA-CHESTERFIELD-GOOCHLAND-POWHATAN-
358 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS AMELIA...
GOOCHLAND...CHESTERFIELD AND POWHATAN COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 357 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JEFFERSON TO
PAINEVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GOOCHLAND TO 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CUMBERLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WORSHAMS AROUND 405 PM EDT...
  WORSHAMS AROUND 410 PM EDT...
  TRUXILLO AROUND 415 PM EDT...
  SUBLETTS AROUND 420 PM EDT...
  GENITO AROUND 425 PM EDT...
  PILKINTON AROUND 430 PM EDT...

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH CAN CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

LAT...LON 3751 7754 3740 7754 3732 7756 3721 7779
      3741 7818 3767 7788

JFOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
511 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VAZ060-065>068-070-079-080-087-242215-
AMELIA-BRUNSWICK-CHESTERFIELD-DINWIDDIE-GREENSVILLE-LUNENBURG-
MECKLENBURG-NOTTOWAY-PRINCE EDWARD-
511 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS AMELIA...CHESTERFIELD...
PRINCE EDWARD...MECKLENBURG...LUNENBURG...BRUNSWICK...DINWIDDIE...
NOTTOWAY AND GREENSVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 509 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM WALKERS TO FERGUSONVILLE TO BRIERY TO 15
MILES WEST OF BUFFALO SPRINGS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9
MILES EAST OF MANNBORO TO 5 MILES EAST OF CREWE TO KEYSVILLE TO 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLOVER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

AREAS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE   SCHOLFIELD AROUND 515 PM
EDT...
  SUTHERLAND AROUND 520 PM EDT...
  WELLVILLE AROUND 525 PM EDT...
  NUTBUSH AROUND 530 PM EDT...
  THE FALLS AROUND 535 PM EDT...
  SPANISH GROVE AROUND 540 PM EDT...

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

LAT...LON 3668 7870 3670 7865 3691 7849 3708 7845
      3710 7850 3713 7852 3715 7856 3717 7855
      3726 7810 3727 7762 3700 7741 3685 7769
      3676 7814 3654 7839 3654 7873 3655 7874

44

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