River Flood Warning 1, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL LINE MOVING A BIT
QUICKER THAN PROGGED EVEN BY FASTEST HRRR SOLUTION. HAVE
ACCORDINGLY MOVED SHRAS OUT A BIT FASTER WITH LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE. LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS ERODING WEDGE FRONT NOW
JUST WEST OF RIC METRO...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. VIA SPC MESOANALYSIS, LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION NOW
CROSSING INTO WESTERN EDGE OF TOR WATCH BOX...IN EFFECT FOR SE VA
/HAMPTON ROADS AND TIDEWATER/ AND NE NC UNTIL 01Z.

LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING
INTO WESTERN VA AT 20Z. AS EXPECTED, SEEING A NARROW LINE OF
FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN VA ATTM. PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS, MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WARM
SECTOR (ALONG WITH 50-70 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND LOW/MIDLVL LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM) HAS PROVED SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN STRONG
60-80KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE DECK (AKQ VWP SHOWING SW WINDS ~60KT
BETWEEN 1-2KFT UP). AS CONVECTIVE LINE ROLLS EAST, EXPECT DAMAGING
WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR
RETURNS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
OFFSHORE AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BRINGS A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WHILE NOT
NEARLY AS MILD AS SATURDAY...MAXIMA REMAIN ~1 S.D. ABOVE
NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SW ON MONDAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BARRELS EASTWARD FROM
THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WARM SW FLOW ALLOWS MAXIMA TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD OVER THE MIDWEST
MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. LEADING ENERGY WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF
STATES NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. ECMWF REMAINS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE LEADING ENERGY THAN OTHER MODELS...RESULTING IN
STRONGER SWLY FLOW AND RESULTANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION.
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH ALSO AFFECT PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
AND ATTENDANT WAVY FRONT OVER THE REGION. STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION
DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHILE
THE WEAKER GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE WEAK/WAVY FRONT OFFSHORE. TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARD ECMWF BASED ON RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND PV FIELDS
(BETTER PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES WRT TO UPPER LEVEL FIELDS). WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE-HIGH END CHANCE POPS TUES MORNING-AFTERNOON...WITH
PRECIP PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUES NIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
SHALLOW...AND WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...QPF AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE...ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE
GULF STATES TUES INTO TUES NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SFC PATTERN PROBLEMS
ARISE...MAINLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
BOTH INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDS. LEADING
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDS...WITH A WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDS AFTERNOON. STRONG DYNAMICS LOOK TO
OVERCOME LIMITED MOISTURE FOR PRECIP WEDS. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO MODEL SPREAD WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ATTM. RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED ACROSS THE FAR
NW ZONES.

TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...RIDGING NWD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURS-FRI...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST-GULF STATES FRI-SAT AS COLD AIR
RETURNS TO THE REGION. PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE COLD AIR WILL PREVENT
THE EXTREME TEMPS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL TUES (UPPER 50S-LOW 60S) BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SAT
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S. MILD MON NIGHT (LOW-MID 40S)
BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LOWS (LOW-MID
30S) THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTN/EVNG IS THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
CDFNT. S WNDS HAVE INCREASED (20-25 KT) AND WILL BECOME GUSTY (30
KT) INTO THIS AFTN AS THE LINE MAKES ITS WAY EAST. TIMING OF
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PCPN ON RADAR HAS THE PRECIP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM MID AFTN THROUGH 00-03Z/12. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THUNDER AND
STRONGER WINDS(40-50 KT) ALONG THE LINE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE ENTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
SOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

DRYING AND IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 03-06Z/12...AND VFR CONDS FOR
SUN/MON...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. SLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY AND 25-30 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BEFORE BACKING TO THE W LATE THIS
EVENING POST FRONTAL. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT...BUT ISOLATED WATER
SPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
GENERALLY TO 5-8 FT (9-10 FT 20 NM OUT) THRU EARLY TONIGHT. BRIEF
DOWNTURN IN WINDS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...BUT WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BACK TO SCA SPEEDS
AND PERSIST THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5-8 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF STATES TONIGHT-SUN
MORNING...EXTENDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND SCA SPEEDS TO SUBSIDE. SCA HEADLINES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SE COAST
SUN NIGHT-MON AS SLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER THE WATER MON NIGHT-TUES...WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR
15 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5+ FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS.

COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING
TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCRSG S WNDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH TDA AHD OF APPROACHING CDFNT HAS
PUSHED WATER LEVELS UP OVR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL CHES BAY...MNLY
INVOF LWR MD ERN SHORE (DORCHESTER TO SOMERSET COUNTIES) AND ALG
THE NORTHERN SHORE OF ACCOMACK COUNTY IN VA. XPCG WTR LEVELS FOR
HI TIDES THROUGH THIS AFTN TO BE ABT 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV
NRML...PTNTLLY REACHING 3 FT MLLW AT CAMBRIDGE (MINOR FLOODING 3.5
FT MLLW) AND BISHOPS HEAD MD (MINOR FLOODING 3.2 FT MLLW)...THEN
DEPARTURES AVGG 0.5 TO 1 FT ABV NRML FOR THE HIGH TIDE TNGT IN
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE TIED AT SBY (1975).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

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