Coastal Flood Statement 7, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA TO NORTH CAROLINA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUING BATCHES OF SHOWERS COMING INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND
NORTHERN DELMARVA WHILE A SECOND AREA IS OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THESE ARE WELL DEPICTED ON THE HRRR
AND WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING THE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH WHILE THE SOUTHERN BATCH SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WATER
VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG PV MAX OVER NEW ENGLAND WHICH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD STILL
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS UNTIL IT PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THIS PV
MAX PASSES WILL SEE MORE DRY AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH AND THIS
SHOULD END THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE A DRY DAY.
WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY
AND THIS WILL SETUP A FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE WATER.
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWLY DRYING IT WILL TAKE LONGER SINCE
THE FLOW COMES OFF THE WATER. WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SKIES ON
SUNDAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST WHERE WINDS OFF THE WATER COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. NOT SURE YET HOW THIS WILL DEVELOP BUT EXPECT THIS TO
KEEP HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW MAV GUIDANCE WHICH
CONTINUES A BELOW NORMAL TREND. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THEN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED
BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY SHUNTED
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE RIDGING
PATTERN MID-WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE ON THU. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN
THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...
MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES)...THEN SLOWLY MODERATE TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/FRI (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES). PENDING WX FROM THU
INTO FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TROPICAL ACTIVITY TIMING AND
PLACEMENT. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING PULLED
CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS 12Z MODEL RUNS.
WITH A CHANGE FROM A SYSTEM BEING 500-600 MILES OFFSHORE TO BEING
ALONG THE COAST...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND PREFER NOT TO LEAN
THE FORECAST HEAVILY TWD ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TWD MORE OF A COASTAL IMPACT THEN A
FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC
COAST THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR SHOWERS AND CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
SATURATED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL HELP CLEAR THE SHOWERS AND CEILINGS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL SUN AFTN WITH A CONTINUED NE
WIND.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AS MID AND LOWER RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS...CHES
BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

NE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT IN COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW WINDS DEVELOP BEFORE
STARTING SCA FLAGS EARLY...THEREFORE CURRENT START TIMES REMAIN
INTACT AT THIS TIME (WITH THE EXCEPT OF THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
WHERE SEAS ARE 4.9FT AT BUOY 44009). PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED
SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT
OCEAN AND 10-15KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH
25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON
SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE
FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT NEAR 20 NM SOMETIME SUN INTO MON. ALTHOUGH
SCA FLAG END TIMES HAVE BEEN ALTERED TO END AROUND 7 PM MON NIGHT...
THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH MON NIGHT FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON THROUGH WED. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE BUT SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO PASS
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU/FRI BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TIMING/PLACEMENT IS VERY HIGH DUE TO A DRASTIC SHIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM BEING 500-600 MILES OFFSHORE TO FOLLOWING COASTAL FEATURES.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE AFFECTS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES EXPECTED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY DUE TO PROLONGED NE WINDS. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 0.5 FOOT BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES TODAY GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 2-3 FT AND INCREASING NE WINDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BMD

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