Storm Warning 8, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Feb 10, 2014, 10:14 AM AKST (19:14 UTC)

Expired

Feb 10, 2014, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

015 
FZAK51 PAJK 101914 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-110100-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON CAUSING STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-110100-
GLACIER BAY-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-110100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-110100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-110100-
ICY STRAIT-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... 
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-110100-
CROSS SOUND-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-110100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-110100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-110100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-110100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 60 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.



$$

PKZ035-110100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-110100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1014 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE. GUSTS
TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Feb 10, 6:05 AM AKST, 4 hours 9 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
605 AM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...WINDY AND COLD FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE YUKON AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH THIS MORNING
THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CENTER TRACKS INTO NORTHER BRITISH
COLUMBIA. AN ELONGATED LOW WITH TWIN 992 MB CENTER IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AK GULF. THE FIRST CENTER IS JUST OF THE COAST OF
HAIDA GWAII AND WILL CROSS OVER DIXON ENTRANCE INTO SOUTHERN BC
THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST HITTING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COAST.
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING THEN DIMINISH MONDAY
EVENING. SOME MODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE NORTHERLY EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP AND EXACT POSITION OF QPF VALUES. ECMWF.UKMET MOVE PRECIP
AS FAR NORTH AS FREDERICK SOUND WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEP POP SOUTH
OF SUMNER STRAIT. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/NAM BUT DID BLEND
SOME ECMWF. AS THE SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING AND 6 HOUR QPF VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 0.15 TO 0.25 RANGE THINK SNOW FALL AMOUNTS FOR AKZ27
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WHILE AKZ28 SNOW TOTALS WILL BE
IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. AKZ29 AND HYDER WILL
GET A BIT MORE SNOW WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 7 INCHES NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA LONGER.

 ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH MOVES DOWN FORM THE YUKON BRINGING MORE
COLD AIR TO THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREA HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S DUE TO THE ADVANCING FRONT BUT NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES. HIGHER ELEVATION WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO.

 THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGH WINDS WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE YUKON HIGH AND HAIDA GWAII
LOW. TAKU WIND EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU IS SHAPING UP WITH
COMPONENTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW, CRITICAL LEVEL AND INVERSION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 60 TO 70
MPH RANGE AS FLOW REVERSAL AT 600 MB REFLECT THE CROSS BARRIER
FLOW TO THE SURFACE. OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS ALREADY REPORTING GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH AND ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. STORM FORCE WINDS FOR NORTHER LYNN CANAL
WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SHIFT INTO BC AND THE LOW MOVES EXITS TO THE
EAST. HIGH SEAS IN THE 10 TO 14 FOOT RANGE EXTENDING DOWN LYNN
CANAL INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT DUE TO THE LONG FETCH OF
NORTHERLY WINDS.

 MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE THE PORTION AND TIMING OF THE POP
FORM THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE THEY
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN. CHANGES
WERE MINOR AS KEPT WITH A NAM/ECMWF BLEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...MODELS IN GENERALLY FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF
ACROSS TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ONSHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE LEAVING A LOW IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND POCKET REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP THE ROTATING
PATTERN OF SHORT WAVE GOING TO THE WEEKEND. PULLING A WAVE FROM
SOUTH OF THE GULF TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THEN DRIVING A NEW
ONE SOUTH OF THE GULF FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

 THE LOW IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR AND INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE TIGHT NORTH
GRADIENT AND OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND IMPROVING WEDNESDAY.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BETTER EARLY...HOWEVER
LATER PERIODS MORE ISSUES ARE CLUSTERING IN. USED GFS AND ECMWF AS
A BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST ITEMS EARLY. I WENT A HEAD WITH
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT I THINK MADE A
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED A PUTTING MORE OF THE EC/GFS OPERATIONAL
BLEND INTO THE EXTENDED. AM THINKING THAT THE NEW WPC SOLUTION
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018-019.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ021.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ053.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-031.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034-035-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-036-041-042-052-053.

&&

PRB/BEZENEK

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2014Every storm warning in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.