Storm Warning 41, NWS Juneau, AK

287 
FZAK52 PAJK 110758 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1048 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120200-
1048 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL APPROACH THE SE GULF OF AK FROM THE S
LATE ON WED. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO GALE FORCE THU MORNING
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON BARANOF ISLAND THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUING NORTH. A VERY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
GULF ON FRI. 

$$

PKZ041-120200-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1048 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-120200-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1048 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO
17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-120200-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1048 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-120200-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1048 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT. S
SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-120200-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1048 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

091 
FZAK52 PAJK 111231
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120100-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE SE GULF WILL MOVE N AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER BARANOF ISLAND THU NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. OUTLOOK...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON SAT.  

$$

PKZ041-120100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-120100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-120100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO
10 FT LATE. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-120100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-120100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
336 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW COMES SHOOTING UP INTO THE SE GULF
TONIGHT. VERY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION SHOWN ON SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
SURFACE LOW SEEMS TO BE JUST WEST OF WHERE THE UPPER LOW IS BASED
ON BUOY OBS NEAR THE SYSTEM. STRETCHING TO THE NORTH IS A FRONTAL
BAND THAT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SOME WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MEANWHILE HAS HAD A
FOGGY DAY IN THE CLEARER SKIES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MOST
OBSERVATIONS SITES AT SOME POINT HAD VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE WITH
JUNEAU AIRPORT AND THE MENDENHALL VALLEY SOCKED IN WITH 1/4 MILE
ALL DAY LONG. THE REMAINING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONTAL BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH BRINGING SOME
WIND AND PRECIP THAT WILL FINALLY MIX THE LOWER LAYERS OUT.
CONSEQUENTLY THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT FOR THE JUNEAU AREA HAS
EXPIRED.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS THE MAIN FOCUS AS THAT
STRONG LOW PUSHES UP INTO THE SE GULF. MODEL AGREEMENT STILL HAS A
FEW SNAGS WITH THE GFS BEING WAY TO FAST TRACKING THIS LOW NORTH.
THE NAM, GEM, AND ECMWF MEANWHILE HAVE FALLEN INTO A COMFORTABLE
AGREEMENT OF IT BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 960MB WEST OF HAIDA GWAII
EARLY WED EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY TRACKING N WEAKENING AS IT GOES.
IT IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SOUTHERN
BARANOF ISLAND AND CROSS SOUND THU EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS IS THE WIND. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET IS AROUND 50 TO 60 KT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT HIGHEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND JUST OFF PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND. AS A RESULT A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ZONE
27 TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES UP FOR 28
AND 23 FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

AS FOR PRECIP, MOST AREAS REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW AND WILL REMAIN
TOO WARM AS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INSTEAD RAIN IS THE MAIN ORDER OF
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN START UP SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE IN THE .5 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LOWER AMOUNTS THE FARTHER
NORTH YOU ARE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE YAKUTAT WHERE THEY
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THEY ARE TOO FAR
WEST TO BE IMPACTED BY THE PRECIP BUT WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS ROLL
OVER THEM. YAKUTAT MAY ALSO BE THE ONLY PLACE THAT RETAINS SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH THE REMNANT
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE RAPID
WEAKENING STAGE BY 06Z FRI. IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND EDGE NORTHWARD
LATE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY REMNANT PRECIP AND SOME RESIDUAL
WIND. SOME CHANGES WERE MADE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON WINDS IN
NORTHERN LYNN WHICH APPEARED NOT TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY ENOUGH IN THE
06Z-12Z PERIOD EVEN WITH A BIAS TOWARDS TYPICAL LATENESS IN THAT
AREA. MADE CHANGES CONSERVATIVELY BASED ON CURRENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROGS...AND WITH SYSTEM WEAKENING GRADIENTS SHOULD BE
DOING THE SAME. GEM MODEL IS THE STRONGEST ON THIS EXITING LOW
FOR THURS. NIGHT AND IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER.

WE REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO
EXTENSIVE SNOW IS FORESEEN WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MIXED EPISODES ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGES AND IN THE HYDER VICINITY. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF
AND THEN NNWWD OUT OF THE AREA. SATURDAY'S NEW STORM FRONT WITH
ENHANCED GRADIENTS BEGINNING ABOUT 09-12Z LOOKS POTENT WITH 980ISH
CENTRAL GULF LOW AND STRONG GRADIENTS BETWEEN THAT AND THE
INTERIOR COLD AIR DEVELOPING. LOOKS TO BE GALE-FORCE FOR OUTER WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF INNER CHANNELS WITH MORE MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE
PANHANDLE...WITH GRADIENTS PEAKING IN THE SAT PM - SUN AM PERIOD.
THE NEXT L ON MON- TUES TAKES AN ALMOST IDENTICAL TRACK. MADE AN
ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH THE QPF/POP GRIDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND USING
MOSTLY NAM/EC PROGS. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRESENT THROUGH
ABOUT MONDAY BETWEEN THE EC AND GEM MODELS AND EARLY ON IN THE
NAM. OVERALL THE GFS ONCE AGAIN IS THE OUTLIER ON SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DURING THE DAYS 3-5 PORTION...BUT ALOFT IT MOSTLY AGREES
WITH THE EC/GEM EVEN INTO DAYS 5-6. MID- LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS ON
THE 3 MAJOR MODELS ALL SHOW A WEST- EAST JET JUST SOUTH OF THE
GULF WHICH WILL CONTINUE OUR ACTIVE WET AND WINDY WX PATTERN. WPC AK
SEEMS TO BE LEANING TOWARDS A STATUS QUO APPROACH WITH THE
LONGWAVE REMAINING OVER THE ALEUTIANS IN THE EXTENDED...THIS
KEEPS PANHANDLE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT
TO DISAGREE. WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FROM LATE ON DAY 4 ONWARDS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH AT THIS POINT IS WET THROUGH DAY 8.
MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM AKST THURSDAY
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-033-036-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-032-034-035-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

EAL/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU