Storm Warning 34, NWS Juneau, AK

020 
FZAK67 PAJK 071238
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-080100-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE
EASTERN GULF FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-080100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...STORM FORCE LOW WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. INITIAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH PANHANDLE HAS
ALLOWED MIDLEVEL DRYING WITH SOME COMPONENT OF OFFSHORE WINDS IN
THE MID-LEVELS. AS MOISTURE WORKED ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
EVAPORATION COOLED THE COLUMN TO JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
FALLING AS SNOW FROM PETERSBURG NORTHWARD TO GUSTAVUS/JUNEAU. WITH
NO REAL WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ONLY SOME HINTS AT SOME
SOUTHEAST WARMING FLOW ALOFT ON SOME OF THE PROFILERS AROUND
JUNEAU, SEE NO REASON THAT THE RAIN TRANSITION WILL OCCUR AS
QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO CONTINUED WITH A SLOW TRANSITION
TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. FELT STRONGLY, THAT WE WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
ADDITIONAL COOLING IN TEMPERATURES, BUT THESE WILL BE STEADY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND LATE.
TOMORROW, WITH MORE WARMING AHEAD OF THE STRONG FRONT IN THE GULF,
WE EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO HAVE COMPLETED ITS LIQUID
TRANSFORMATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LYNN CANAL AREA WHERE
SOME DRYER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP WET BULB TEMPERATURES LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST. AS THE FRONTAL SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHES, RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOP FROM THE
WEST SPREADING EAST. HAINES BORDER COULD RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. SOUTH OF HAINES...LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN. THINK THE CHILKAT
RANGE WILL HOLD THE QPF DOWN FROM ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE...HYDER HAS HAD HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES TODAY AND SHOULD
BEGIN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE 70 KT WINDS AT 925 MB DEMANDED THE POSTING OF STORM FORCE
WARNINGS FROM ZONE 51 SOUTHEASTWARD. GALE WARNING FOR CLARENCE HAS
INDICATIONS OF STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF ANNETTE ISLAND. NORTH OF
KETCHIKAN ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD BE LOWER
THAN GALE FORCE. IN ADDITION, TRIED TO LIGHTEN SOME WINDS NORTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND AS GRADIENTS MORE PARALLEL THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
WENT WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER NORTHERN CHATHAM TOMORROW TO RESPECT THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT AT 925. SOME CHANCE OF OUTFLOW
WINDS TOMORROW IN JUNEAU BUT THINK THIS IS A WEAK CASE.

USED ECMWF WITH SOME HELP FROM GFS/NAM ON OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF. SREF/ECWMF USED FOR POPS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY
GOOD.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE THRU MIDWEEK
WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TO THE W OF THE AREA WITH A VERY SLOW EWD
DRIFT TO THE TROF DURING THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. UPPER JET WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT SE OF THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA. LOOKS FAIRLY WARM...WINDY...AND WET THRU MIDWEEK
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST. PREFERRED BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM
AND ECMWF FOR SUN NIGHT-TUE...THEN WENT WITH LATEST WPC FOR THE
MOST PART FOR TUE NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR SUN NIGHT-MON...WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DRIFT ONSHORE
SUN NIGHT AND LIKELY DISSIPATE...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE ERN GULF MON. PRECIP AND WINDS WITH THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ALTHOUGH THE SRN OUTER COAST MAY STAY ON THE
WINDY SIDE. THE SECOND OCCLUSION WILL INCREASE WIND AND PRECIP
ALONG THE COAST MON MORNING...AND SPREAD INLAND MON AFTERNOON. MAY
BE A DRY PERIOD FOR THE NE INNER CHANNELS DUE TO STRONG ELY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THIS COULD CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE ABOVE
CURRENT FORECAST IF THE WINDS MIX DOWNWARD TO THE SFC. DEFINITELY
LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN NEAR SEA LEVEL WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
ANY SNOW ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY.

FOR MON NIGHT-TUE...FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE OUTER COAST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NWD ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAY TRACK
JUST OFFSHORE AND INCREASE WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST. MODELS
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF
WERE CLOSE. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY HIGH WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...EVEN ON THE INNER CHANNELS FOR TUE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR A WIND HEADLINE EVENT.

FOR TUE NIGHT ONWARD...SHOULD SEE LARGER BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS SEWD. MAY GET ANOTHER STRONG LOW AROUND THE WED
NIGHT AND THU PERIOD HOWEVER. DID TEND TO KEEP POPS A BIT HIGHER
THAN WPC HAD FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023-028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-034-053.

&&

JWA/RWT

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