Storm Warning 20, NWS Juneau, AK

471 
FZAK51 PAJK 192031 AAC
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-201430-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT NW TO THE NW GULF
BY SUN NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING S OF HAIDA GWAII
WILL MOVE N ACROSS SE AK SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

$$

PKZ011-201430-
GLACIER BAY-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-201430-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN DEVELOPING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT IN THE EVENING THEN SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-201430-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-201430-
ICY STRAIT-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-201430-
CROSS SOUND-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-201430-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-201430-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-201430-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-201430-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-201430-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.



$$

PKZ036-201430-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1226 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

947 
FZAK51 PAJK 192333
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-201400-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW MOVING N ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
PUSH INTO THE CANADIAN YUKON THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER
LOW WILL HEAD NW FROM THE GULF INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
EVENING WITH ITS TRAILING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MON MORNING. OUTLOOK. A NEW GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SE GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE.  

$$

PKZ011-201400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE  BECOMING N AND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4
FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-201400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-201400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN
IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-201400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-201400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
W SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-201400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT
LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-201400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE LATE EVENING.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-201400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING
TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-201400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS IN
THE EVENING. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-201400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-201400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014 

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT LATE.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
537 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF
WILL DRIFT N THEN NW INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. A LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR SRN HAIDA GWAII WILL MOVE N THRU SE AK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROF EXTENDING S FROM THE S-CENTRAL GULF
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE TOWARD THE SE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE STRUGGLING SOME WITH THE LOW NEAR SRN HAIDA GWAII...AND ENDED
UP USING A 06Z NAM/00Z ECMWF/00Z GEM BLEND TO GET BEST HANDLE ON
THIS SYSTEM.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL...WINDS...AND
CHANCES FOR TSTMS. RIGHT NOW A BAND OF SHOWERS IS OVER THE NW
THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH SPOTTIER SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AREA.
THINK THIS BAND WILL MOVE WNW AND BE MAINLY W OF PAYA AND N OF
PAGY BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE SPOTTIER SHOWERS TO THE S OF THAT
AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW MOVING N FROM NEAR SRN HAIDA GWAII. RAIN
FROM THIS LOW IS JUST REACHING THE FAR SRN AREA...AND SHOULD
SPREAD NWD INTO THE S-CENTRAL AREA BY LATE MORNING...THE N-CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY THE FAR NRN AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. ONCE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...PRECIP SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS OVER THE MAIN PART OF THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE S TONIGHT. THE PAYA AREA SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE.

WIND WISE...NLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS. THINK 20-30 KT NLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE MORE N-S CHANNELS N OF FREDERICK SOUND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER S...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW MOVES INTO THE FAR
SE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SELY JET OF 40-50 KT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH MAINLY THE SRN INNER CHANNELS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS/GALES FOR THAT
AREA. MODELS DIFFERED ON HOW FAR W THESE STRONGER WINDS WERE...AND
THIS MADE THE SRN OUTER COAST WIND FORECAST TRICKY. DECIDED NOT TO
BRING IN STRONG WINDS TO ZONE 27 AT THIS POINT...BUT DAY SHIFT
WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW MUCH THE LOW DEEPENS AND WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS SETS UP. ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF...WILL HAVE SOME
SCA LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NRN GULF...AND TO THE S-SW OF THE
LOW/TROF OVER THE GULF AS WELL AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES FROM
THE W THRU TONIGHT. WHERE WINDS DO NOT REACH SCA LEVELS OVER THE
GULF COASTAL WATERS...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR SCA DUE TO SEAS.

AS FOR THE TSTM THREAT...MODELS SUGGEST HIGHEST CAPE VALUES (300+ J/KG)
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE S. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE
UNSTABLE TODAY...BUT THE FAR ERN GULF WILL TEMPORARILY STABILIZE
AS LOW MOVES N FROM HAIDA GWAII. ONCE LOW MOVES PAST THE
AREA...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW OVER THE ERN
GULF...BUT AS TROF LIFTS NE TONIGHT...THE MOST UNSTABLE LAYER WILL
GET SQUEEZED FROM THE SW BY THE TROF. WILL KEEP IN ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE ERN GULF
TONIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING THE THREAT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY LAND AREAS GETTING TSTMS ARE ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND SRN COASTAL AREA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SEE WET WEATHER AS A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ROOTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE WEEK. THE MAIN JET ENERGY HAS BEEN PUSHED WELL TO THE
SOUTH BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH AS A RESULT ANY STORMS THAT FIND THEIR WAY
INTO THE GULF ARE STUCK THERE FOR QUITE AWHILE DUE TO WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS UNDER THE TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A BIT OF HOPE IN
BREAKING UP THIS PATTERN BUT IT DOES NOT SHOW UP UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW HEADING EAST OUT OF
RUSSIA.

AT THE SURFACE WE ARE FINALLY GETTING RID OF ONE LOW ONLY FOR IT
TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER OF SIMILAR STRENGTH AND STAYING POWER.
THE DEPARTING LOW IS GETTING SHOVED UP TO COOK INLET MON WHILE IT
WEAKENS AND ELONGATES. THIS STRENGTHENS AN EXISTING SURFACE TROUGH
THAT WAS ALREADY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO THE SE GULF. THAT
TROUGH WILL HEAD NE OVER THE PANHANDLE MON AFTERNOON ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY COMBINED WITH A WEDGE OF SOME UPPER LEVEL COOLER AIR
ALONG THIS TROUGH THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MON.

BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH MON NIGHT AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL NOT LAST AS THE
NEXT STORM COMES ROLLING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL ALMOST
TAKE THE SAME TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS STORM WITH THE MAIN LOW
SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE A GALE FORCE FRONT HITS
THE PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS BUT THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT. MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK FOR THIS STORM IS DECENT UP UNTIL IT STARTS RETROGRADING
BACK TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT THEN MODELS START DIVERGING FROM
THERE. IN ANY CASE, THE PANHANDLE IS IN FOR MORE WET WEATHER WITH
WIND EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MID WEEK.
BY LATE WEEK THE LOW WILL STILL BE SPIRALING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
BUT IT MAY HAVE SLIPPED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE PANHANDLE MAY START DRYING OUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENCE ON THIS BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS
THERE FOR SOME RELIEF FROM THE WET WEATHER AT LEAST FOR THE NORTH.

LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUE THEN
START DIVERGING AS THEY HAVE TROUBLE WITH WHERE THE SECOND LOW
WILL DRIFT IN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
MOST OF THE CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE TUE TO WED TIME PERIOD ADDING
MORE DETAILS TO THE MAIN FRONT OF THE SECOND LOW. MAIN CHANGES
WERE UPPING WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE MAIN FRONT AS IT COMES NORTH.
USED GFS AND EC FOR MAIN WIND GUIDANCE. WPC WAS USED FOR LATER
PERIODS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-034-035-041>043-051-052.

&&

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU