Storm Warning 19, NWS Juneau, AK

571 
FZAK51 PAJK 101203
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-110100-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING.  

$$

PKZ011-110100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-110100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ013-110100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ021-110100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-110100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE.
SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-110100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ032-110100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-110100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT...
EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ034-110100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ035-110100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ036-110100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 55 KT...STRONGEST WINDS NORTHERN HALF. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
304 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A WELL
FORMED 960 MB LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE STRONG LOW IS RIDING NORTH OF A 150 KT
300 MB JET STREAK. THERE ARE MULTIPLE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WITH THE FIRST CURRENTLY CROSSING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE SECOND FRONT WILL TRACK OVER THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE PARENT LOW WILL TRACK
TO THE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEAKENING TO AROUND 968 MB TONIGHT
THEN TRACK TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
THROUGH FRIDAY. 100 KT 300 MB SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED JET STREAK AND
A 50 TO 60 KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH THE
FIRST FRONT WITH WEAKENING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WITH THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT 850 MB WINDS ONLY IN
THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO BE AS STRONG.
TROPICAL NATURE OF THE ORIGINAL SYSTEM BRINGING IN HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH HEAVY RAIN FALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT. TOTALS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH TOMORROW.
COLD AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL PRODUCE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 300 TO 400 J/KG RANGE MOVING
EASTWARD. WITH THIS CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...MOIST DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS /AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL/ FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND GULF AS EMBEDDED UPPER IMPULSES INTERACT
WITH A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE INITIAL TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS
MOVES NWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST...A SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DIG SSEWD INTO THE WRN GULF BY SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL GULF...WHICH WILL
OCCLUDE AND ROTATE NWWD THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NERN PAC AND
LIFTING NWD INTO THE SERN GULF MON NIGHT. THOUGH DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...PREDICTABILITY IS INHERENTLY LOW DUE TO THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE INTERACTIONS. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE BEYOND SUN.

SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE ELEVATED FRI NIGHT OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA...THUS SMALL CRAFT TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER N-S ORIENTED INSIDE CHANNELS SUCH AS
STEPHENS PASSAGE...SRN CHATHAM STRAIT...AND CLARENCE STRAIT.
ESELY SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER
THE OUTSIDE MARINE ZONES 43...51...AND 52...WHILE SEAS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF INCREASE TO 15-25 FEET. WINDS THEN SLACKEN BY SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH ANY MARINE HAZARDS BEYOND THAT TIME HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN DUE TO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CAVEATS ABOVE.

PRESSURE AND SUBSEQUENT WIND GRIDS WERE NOT CHANGED THROUGH 06Z
SUN /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NUDGE TOWARD NAM BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS/. THEREAFTER...BLENDED IN ECMWF/GEM MSLP WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST 12Z SUN-12Z WED...FOLLOWED BY INCORPORATION OF WPC 00Z
THU THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. POP WAS UPDATED WITH A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECWMF THROUGH 12Z TUE...AND THEN A
GFS/ECMWF/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. RFC QPF GUIDANCE WAS USED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...BUT PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE LIMITED
TO 0.05 INCHES OR LESS AFTER 00Z MON.

&&

.AVIATION...THE HEAVY RAIN IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH CEILINGS AT MVFR. THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PRODUCE WIND SHEAR FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO HAVE MORE UNIFORM DIRECTION AND
SPEEDS UP TO 4-5K FT. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVERLAND WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATER AND OVER EAST-
WEST ORIENTATED CHANNELS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. WAS
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN OFFSHORE
WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALES. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSIDE WATERS WINDS WILL
PICK UP QUICKLY THIS EVENING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH GALES OVER
CLARENCE STRAIT. WINDS WILL DROP LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH MOST LOCATIONS NEAR 20 KTS TOMORROW MORNING...THEN
INCREASING WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE HEAVY RAIN FALL WILL CAUSE LOCAL RIVER AND
STREAMS TO HAVE QUICK RISES TONIGHT. AS SNOW LEVELS INCREASE TO
6000 FEET THE NEW SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MELT QUICKLY
ADDING TO THE HEAVY RAIN FALL. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY
STREAMS AND RIVERS TO RISE ABOVE BANKFULL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF MUDSLIDES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUST WINDS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ025-026.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022-023.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031-032-034-053.

&&

PRB/GARNER

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