Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2014
Storm Warning 17, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this storm warning at Oct 2, 2014, 9:53 AM AKDT. It was in force for 12 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 2, 2014, 9:53 AM AKDT (17:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 2, 2014, 9:25 PM AKDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
514 FZAK52 PAJK 021753 AAA CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 953 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-031200- 953 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT EXITS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-031200- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 953 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ042-031200- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 953 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ043-031200- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 953 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 UPDATED ...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .REST OF TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ051-031200- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 953 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 ...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. .TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ052-031200- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 953 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 ...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. .TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN. .FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$
2 follow-up statements
923 FZAK52 PAJK 022334 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-031400- 400 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT EXITS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-031400- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$ PKZ042-031400- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 ...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ043-031400- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. OUT OF CROSS SOUND...GUSTS TO 70 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE EVENING...THEN SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .SUN AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ051-031400- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE EVENING...THEN SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. S SWELL LATE. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$ PKZ052-031400- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE EVENING...THEN SUBSIDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. .SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$
444 FZAK52 PAJK 030525 AAA CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 925 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-031400- 400 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT EXITS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-031400- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 925 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$ PKZ042-031400- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 925 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING FRIDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ043-031400- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 925 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .SUN AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ051-031400- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 925 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. S SWELL LATE. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$ PKZ052-031400- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 925 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT LATE. RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. .SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 2, 5:15 AM AKDT, 4 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 5:15 AM AKDT, 4 hours 38 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
515 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES, COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS WILL
TRANSITION TO CLOUD SKIES, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AK GULF. THIS SURFACE LOW IS NORTH OF A
110 KT 300 MB NORTHEAST ORIENTATED JET WITH A TRIPLE POINT
CIRCULATION FORMING SOUTH OF KODIAK. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO
AROUND 974 MB BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ORIGINAL ALEUTIAN LOW
WEAKENING AND BEING ABSORBED. THE NEW KODIAK LOW WILL THEN TRACK
OVER THE NORTHEAST AK GULF TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. AS THE
BENT BACK OCCLUDED FRONT IS ADVANCING CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH RAIN MOVING IN AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. LONG FETCH OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT ARE POSSIBLE.
COLD POOL OF AIR AT 500 MB MOVING OVER THE WARM AK GULF WATER WILL
CAUSE EMBEDDED INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES FROM
200 TO 400 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX AROUND -2C, SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER STORMS OVER THE AK GULF. NEWS MODEL RUNS
HAVE THE COLD POOL MOVING IN BIT SLOWER SO HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF POTENTIAL T-STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EVENING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TONIGHT BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN.
AS THE 60 TO 70 KT EASTERLY 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INLAND IT WILL WEAKEN. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE WATER THEN ALONG THE COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING BY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL DEVELOPING
OVER ZONE 22/ ELFIN COVE PELICAN/ ZONE 23 /SITKA/ ZONE 27 /KLAWOCK
AND CRAIG/ AND ZONE 28 /KETCHIKAN METLAKATLA. EASTERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN CANADA. GAP FLOW WINDS FROM TAKU INLET AND OVER DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND S DOUGLAS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH INCREASE CROSS BARRIER
FLOW AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAD ONLY MINOR VARIATION FROM
PREVIOUS DAY FORECAST. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF PRECIP WITH
THE ECMWF FASTEST AND NAM SLOWEST. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF
BUT OTHER MODELS WERE VERY CLOSE. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE TO WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINED THE SAME. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...LATEST MODELS PROVIDE A LITTLE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR THE GALE FORCE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. PREFERRED TO LEAN OVER THE NAM SUGGESTION AND MADE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELDS. THE RESULTANT CHANGES WERE MINOR...BUT SLOWED
DOWN THE FORWARDING SPEED A BIT AND ADDED A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING
TREND BY FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED WARMING TREND AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINTAIN DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE AND OUTSIDE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CANADA WILL
MOVE EAST AS THE GALE FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PRODUCE GENERAL
SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A PERSISTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GULF...PUSHING ANOTHER SURFACE LOW INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH SOMEWHAT COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LIKELY POPS
FROM THIS LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...INCLUDING YAKUTAT MAY FEEL THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
FIRST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY MID WEEK
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. MERELY NO CHANGES WERE MADE
FOR THE WPC BASED EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS...EXCEPT MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THEN ADDED DAY 8
WITH THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE. DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...GENERALLY MAINTAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK THEN A BIT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...THEN FALLS BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MONDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.MARINE...MAX GALE FORCE WINDS TO NEAR STORM FORCE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SECONDARY WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THEN OVER THE INLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN EAST-WEST ORIENTATE CHANNELS SUCH AS
CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT AND NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE OF SOUTHERN
CHATHAM STRAIT AND SUMNER STRAIT. SOUTHERLY 925 MB WINDS IN THE 40
TO 50 KT RANGE MOVES OVER CLARENCE STRAIT WAS THE FRONT ADVANCES
SO HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS TO 45 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS NEAR LINCOLN ROCK. WINDS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
OVERLAND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH. SEAS WILL BUILD AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES NEARING 22 FEET LATER TODAY THEN DROPPING AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ027.
STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ022.
STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ023.
STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051-052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031-032-034-053.
&&
PRB/AHN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAUThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 55 hr | |
| Oct 1, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 30 hr | |
| Oct 1, 4:00 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 5 days | |
| Oct 2, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 48 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.