Small Craft Advisory 813, NWS Juneau, AK

222 
FZAK53 PAJK 241224
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2014 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-250100-
YAKUTAT BAY-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF DISENCHANTMENT
BAY. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OFF PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND BY 24/12Z MON. OPS MODELS HAVE COME BACK INTO
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW AROUND 1003 MB WILL BE OFF DALL ISL BY
24/12Z. THE 23/12Z AK-GFS-40 WAS PREFERRED FOR THE PRESSURE FIELD
AND THE 15Z SREF POPS WERE USED. MODERATED QPF USING THE GFS AND
TEMPS/THICKNESS INDICATED THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
LOWLANDS SO INDICATED SNOW ONLY FOR WHITE PASS AND THE UPPER
HAINES HIGHWAY AND UPPER GLACIER BAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SHOW LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS WITH MINS FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING.
THIS MAKES THE PTYPE FCST MORE CHALLENGING. GIVEN THAT SHOWERS ARE
DIMINISHING...MOST PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT TUE INTO
WED.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF AK AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS BUILDING
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRIER WX AS NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
AK. EARLY ANALYSIS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OUTFLOW WINDS
DEVELOPING WED INTO THU. FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS RANGE AROUND
4-5MB BETWEEN PAGY/PAJN WED NIGHT INTO THU. THEREFORE...INCREASED
WINDS ACROSS LYNN CANAL AND TAKU INLET TO STRONG SCA/GALES. OTHER
CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE TEMPS. GFS MOS
SHOWS LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EC MOS SUGGESTS WARMER
TEMPS...HOWEVER EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SUPPORT THE COOLER TEMPS.
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS SE AK LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
TRENDING TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MOS 50TH PERCENTILE TEMPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN DETERIORATES TO BELOW AVERAGE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...HARD TO GET RID OF SOME IFR FOG THIS MORNING DUE TO
TRAPPED MOISTURE AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS SO FAR TODAY HAVE
DROPPED CONDS TO MFVR BOTH CIGS/VSBY PARTICULARLY PAYA PASI PAKT.
AFTERNOON TAFS WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AT THE LAST MINUTE
AND WILL INDICATE LOWER TREND IN CONDS LATER TONITE IF FOR NO
OTHER REASON THAN CLOSING DEW POINTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WIDESPREAD SWELL 8 TO 11
FT IN ALL OUTSIDE WATERS AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS MOVING UP TO DIXON ENTRANCE WENT NEAR GALE
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR CLARENCE AND SUMNER. NORTHERLIES WILL
BEGIN INCREASING WED AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. FORECAST
PRESSURE GRADIENTS SUPPORT NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS WED INTO
THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THIS MORNINGS FREEZING LEVELS WERE 2000-3000FT WITH
MINOR LOWERING EXPECTED THROUGH MON. PRECIP TOTALS IN SOME OF THE
MORE RAINY LOCATIONS WILL BE 1-2 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-031-034>036-041-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-042-053.

&&

JC/BC

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