Small Craft Advisory 348, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
335 PM AKDT MON APR 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...A LOW DEVELOPING W OF HAIDA GWAII WILL MOVE N INTO
THE SE GULF TONIGHT...THEN CURVE W AND WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF TUE. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...BUT STALL OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE TUE AFTERNOON. USED THE 12Z UKMET AS IT LOOKED LIKE A
GOOD COMPROMISE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. RIGHT
NOW FAIRLY STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL JET IS OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE...AND THIS WILL SPREAD NNW INTO THE CENTRAL AREA WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST. 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KT
ALONG THIS BAND SUPPORT STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE SRN AND
CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT. IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE SRN INNER CHANNELS
AS WELL...BUT WILL KEEP THEM JUST BELOW HEADLINE LEVEL AS AXIS OF
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GALES FOR THE
SERN GULF AND PARTS OF THE SRN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT...WITH A
WEAKENING TREND IN WINDS WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
COAST TUE. WILL HAVE SCA LEVEL WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING
AREA...WITH ONLY THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNELS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUITE A BIT OVER MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS AND ERN TUE WITH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.

AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL...STEADIER RAIN IS JUST S PAJN AREA AND
SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO THE PAJN AREA BY 01Z. IT SHOULD REACH THE
PAHN-PAGY AREAS BY 06Z. THE LOWEST PRECIP THREAT WILL BE OVER THE
PAYA AREA ESPECIALLY AS A MORE E-NE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE TUE AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE E-SE. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...NEAR AXIS OF LOW
LEVEL JET. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE SW TUE AS OCCLUDED FRONT
PASSES BY...ALTHOUGH THE SRN AREA WILL REMAIN WET WITH FRONT
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE BLOCKING PATTER OVER ALASKA
IS THE BIG FEATURE FROM MIDWEEK TOWARD THE WEEKEND. A LITTLE
UNFORTUNATELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS NOT
QUITE IN THE CORRECT SPOT BUT IS CLOSE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS SETTING UP OVER THE MAINLAND AND THEN EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST
CANADA. MEANWHILE THERE ARE TWO LARGE CUT OFF LOWS ALOFT OVER THE
PACIFIC. ONE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE SECOND OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. SOUTHEAST IS LEFT IN A WEAK FLOW OR EAST
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS STILL DRY FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRYING TO WARM WITH LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR.

HOWEVER PRIOR TO THIS CLEARING THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH
REMAINING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. IT IS A RESULT OF A
WAVE HEADED NORTHWARD WITH A BURST OF MOISTURE. LOOKS AS IF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD GET AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON LOCATION AS
THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH AND THEN DISSIPATES.

AFTER THAT THE BLOCKING FEATURES SETS UP WITH DRYING AND CLEARING
WEATHER FOR THE REGION. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY HAVE ONE OR TWO
NIGHTS OF PATCHY FOG FROM THE DAMP GROUND AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. AM NOT ANTICIPATING A MAJOR IMPACT JUST SOME PATCHY
FOG.

THE EXTENDED HEADED IN NEXT WEEKEND HAVE A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE
AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRYING TO DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES
CREEPING UP BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS. STAYED WITH THE WPC FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
     AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-034-035-051-052.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK