Small Craft Advisory 231, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WITH THE SECOND
WRAP OF A NE GULF STORM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS STORM HAS BEEN RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL AS TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOT UP INTO THE 40S SOUTH OF
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ANY SNOW HAS SINCE CHANGED OVER TO RAIN.
BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER MANY AREAS ALONG ICE STRAIT DID SEE SNOW
THIS MORNING WITH ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES RECORDED AT VARIOUS
SITES. NORTH OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY, WHICH IS SOMEWHERE NORTH OF
JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS BUT STILL SOUTH OF NORTHERN LYNN,
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH HAINES AND
SKAGWAY AT 22 AND SNOW FALLING AT BOTH PLACES.

 INTO TONIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HAINES AND A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY REMAIN UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SO FAR THIS
MORNING UPWARDS OF 9 TO 14 INCHES HAS BEEN MEASURED AROUND HAINES
AND HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES. IN SKAGWAY WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO
GUSTY FOR ACCURATE SNOW MEASUREMENTS BUT ESTIMATES THIS MORNING
MEASURED AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES. SNOW FALL RATES WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT AS THE SECOND WRAP MOVES INTO CANADA AND THE STEADY
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SHOWERS. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITY THE WIND
WILL SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT WHICH, NEAR
SEA LEVEL AT LEAST, WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ABOUT THE ONLY
PLACE THAT WILL STILL BE SEEING SNOW IS WHITE PASS AND MAYBE NEAR
THE BORDER ON THE HAINES HIGHWAY.

 FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR MAYBE HYDER. THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THAT COOL AND THE COLDEST PART OF IT IS STILL
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. LOWS TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST
PLACES. ALSO QPF AMOUNTS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AS WE SWITCH
FROM STRATIFORM PRECIP TO CONVECTIVE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN
THE .2 TO .4 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND AROUND A QUARTER INCH
TOMORROW FOR MOST PLACES.

 AS FOR WIND, THOSE WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AS WELL.
CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN GULF, ALONG THE
OUTER COAST, AND IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 KT BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO APPARENT IN NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AND SKAGWAY. THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING ALL THIS IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON MOST WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND
SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KT. THE EXCEPTION THIS TIME WILL BE NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL WHERE 25 KT SOUTHERLIES WILL BE BLOWING AS SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MOVING INTO
CANADA.

 SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. MOST MODELS
INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL ALTHOUGH MOST WERE UNDER REPRESENTING
THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THEY WERE ALSO TOO WARM AND MOIST IN THOSE SAME
AREAS. DECIDED ON STICKING WITH THE ECMWF FOR UPDATES IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...THE WARM AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL MOVE A SERIES OF
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND INTO
THE AK GULF. MANY OF THESE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LONG FETCH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH WILL BRING IN HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. AS THE
FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS CROSS OVER THE REGION STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WHILE THE SHIFT TO THE NEW PATTERN REGIME HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED STILL SEEING SOME MODEL SPREAD EARLY ON.

 AS THE REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT LOW MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT CEASE
COMPLETE DUE TO THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. MEANWHILE THE NEXT
LOW WILL BE MOVING UNDERNEATH THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND CHAIN WITH THE
CENTER TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA
WEAKENING FROM 960 MB TO 975 MB. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AK GULF REACHING THE PANHANDLE EARLY MONDAY EVENING. PRECIP
WILL INTENSIFY DURING THIS TIME WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
ALONG THE FRONT SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SECONDARY
CIRCULATION WILL FORM AND ENHANCE WINDS AND PRECIP FOR TUESDAY,
BUT STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE. RIGHT
BEHIND THIS LOW ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS KEEPING MOST PRECIP AS RAIN. LATER IN THE WEEK
INDICATIONS OF SOME COLDER 850 MB TEMPS MOVING IN WITH THE SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT MAY BE ENOUGH TO MIX IN SNOW OVERNIGHT.

 WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF WAS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OVERALL WAS CLOSE WITH THE 12Z GEM MODELS WERE SHOWING LOTS OF
VARIATION WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE FEATURES FOR BOTH
LATE MONDAY AND THURSDAY. USED A BLEND MOSTLY OF 12Z ECMWF WITH
SOME GEM THEN TRANSITIONED TO WPC WHICH STARTED TO EMPHASIS THE
GFS AND ENSEMBLE BLEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE IF THESE WEAKER
SURFACE FEATURES DO OR DO NOT DEVELOP.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033>035-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022.

&&

EAL/PRB

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