Small Craft Advisory 111, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
135 PM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN GULF
THRU SUN. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL MOVE S ACROSS SE
AK THRU SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE YUKON AND
NRN BC THRU SUN. KEPT PRESSURES AS IS...BUT DID USE THE LOCAL WRF
TO TWEAK WINDS ON THE INNER CHANNELS AND THE NAM DNG5 TO ADJUST
OUTER COAST AND GULF AREAS.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND. RIGHT NOW THE MOST WIND IS IN
NRN LYNN CANAL...WITH SCA LEVEL N WINDS OCCURRING ATTM. AM
EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS TO SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY SWD THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE NRN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT. NRN LYNN CANAL
SHOULD PICK UP TO GALES BY SUN MORNING. HAVE SCA LEVEL WINDS
DEVELOPING IN SRN LYNN CANAL THIS EVENING. NRN STEPHENS PASSAGE
SHOULD SEE SCA WINDS BY EARLY SUN MORNING. AS SFC HIGH BUILDS A
LITTLE MORE INTO NRN BC SUN...THE MORE E-W CHANNELS SHOULD SEE
SOME INCREASED E-NE WINDS. HAVE CROSS SOUND AND FAR WRN ICY
STRAIT AT SCA FOR MOST OF SUN. LOCALLY AROUND JUNEAU...MAY SEE
STRONGER  WINDS DEVELOP IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS SUN...BUT
FOR NOW AM KEEPING GUSTS UNDER 40 MPH THERE.

 OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE TWEAKED UPWARD A BIT ESPECIALLY WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WINDIER SIDE. THINK ANY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THAT ARE STILL OVER PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING FOR THE PAYA AREA THOUGH AS THEY WILL
BE IN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS LOCALLY. SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE PAGY AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING FURTHER S...SO KEPT THEM MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE REMAINING
AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH MOST OF THE
CLOUDS AT MID-LEVELS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SWD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER ALASKA PENINSULA WEAKENS
AND A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA EXPANDS A LITTLE TO THE WEST. AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH OVER
ALCAN AREA START MOVING SOUTHEAST. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF FOR A FEW FINE TUNES.

 THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GRANT SOUTHEAST AK A WEEK LONG DRY
WEATHER UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS.
CERTAIN WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS WILL BECOME QUITE COLD OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TAKU WINDS DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY
OFFSHORE FLOW OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES AND BASINS.

 FROM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR THE
REMAINING LONG TERM PERIODS DUE TO INCREASING MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY FOR A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
THE SE GULF FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031.

&&

RWT/AHN