Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

815 
WWAK67 PAJK 170337
RFWAJK

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
737 PM AKDT FRI MAY 16 2014

AKZ025-170445-
/X.EXP.PAJK.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140517T0400Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
737 PM AKDT FRI MAY 16 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 025...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

AS NIGHT FALLS AND TEMPERATURES DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO 70 TO 80
PERCENT RANGE. OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE FIRE WEATHER DANGER.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
609 AM AKDT FRI MAY 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE B.C.
COAST INTO THE NRN PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED FROM THE NRN ALEUTIANS INTO THE
CNTRL GULF. ELSEWHERE...WV IMAGERY INDICATES A BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS ADVANCING SEWD AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER INTERIOR AK. FARTHER S...MARINE STRATUS WAS
SPREADING NWD TOWARD HAIDA GWAII. DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...WHILE
LOCALLY HIGHER PRESSURE DEVELOPS NWD INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE
COINCIDENT WITH THE ADVANCING MARINE LAYER. MEANWHILE...PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER INTERIOR AK WILL MOVE INTO NWRN CANADA
TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ENTERING THE NRN
PANHANDLE.

WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF SE AK THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 00Z/16 PAYA RAOB DISPLAYED A WARM NOSE OF 16 C AT 987 MB...AND
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WAS 7 C. THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLEAR
AFTERNOON SKIES AND MODEST OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
JUNEAU...YAKUTAT...HAINES...AND GUSTAVUS. PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE SRN PANHANDLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70. IN ADDITION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY YIELD SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE NWD ADVANCING
MARINE LAYER...WHICH IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE BY
03-06Z...AND THEN SPREAD TOWARD AREAS BETWEEN WRANGELL AND PORT
ALEXANDER BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THERMALLY DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT TO
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS TAKES PLACE...WITH SSELY SPEEDS
IN CLARENCE STRAIT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN INNER
CHANNELS AND MARINE ZONE 41.

USED A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR PRESSURE/WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN A
MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT OVER LYNN CANAL...WHICH ALREADY APPEARS TO BE
VERIFYING IN RECENT OBS /ELDRED ROCK DROPPED FROM 21 KT TO 12 KT
BETWEEN 07 AND 12Z/. THUS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS REMOVED
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST SKY GRID CAPTURED
THE ADVANCING MARINE LAYER TONIGHT...AS WELL AS MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ENTERING NRN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR THE CNTRL/NRN PANHANDLE...AND THE FRIDAY NIGHT LOW FOR
YAKUTAT WAS INCREASED. POP/QPF CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FOR THE SRN
PANHANDLE...WITH ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE ANTICIPATED WITH THE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
DISTANT SOUTH WILL KEEP OFFSHORE FLOW GOING SATURDAY. THE INVERTED
TROUGH DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING THEN
WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
MARINE LAYER AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING. CAPE HOWEVER INCREASES THROUGH AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UP TO THE
PETERSBURG/WRANGELL AREA. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL
SEE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE AWAY SUNDAY WHILE
ANOTHER LOW MOVES SOUTH ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE ARCTIC.
THIS WILL TURN FLOW BACK TO A DIVERGENT ONSHORE DIRECTION THROUGH
SUNDAY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY WITH A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT
CAUSING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP THERE. THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON MONDAY AND ENHANCE THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN FOR MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS.

THE LOW REMAINS IN THE GULF INTO TUESDAY...KEEPING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GREATEST ENERGY SHIFTED FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE RAIN. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

MODELS WERE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS. IN FACT
THEY WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE GULF THEN REMAINED GOOD THROUGH THE MID RANGE AND
REASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH THROUGH
THE MID RANGE THEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE GFS FOR WIND SPEEDS. NUDGED
POPS UP WITH THE BETTER CONFIDENCE OF THE LOW AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK BUT THESE MAY NEED TO COME UP EVEN MORE AS TIME GETS CLOSER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL IMPACT FUELS. AFTERNOON
RH VALUES LOOK TO BE 20-30% BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
HAINES/SKAGWAY AREAS AND AS LOW AS 25-35% FOR HOONAH TO JUNEAU
NORTH. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE 25MPH
CRITERIA EITHER DAY. HOWEVER AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COULD BE MORE
OF AN ISSUE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE TAIYA RIVER FELL SHARPLY THROUGH YESTERDAY
MORNING. THEN DESPITE A WARM DAY WITH A HIGH OF 72F IN
SKAGWAY...THE RIVER DID NOT RISE AS MUCH LAST EVENING DURING ITS
NORMAL DIURNAL INCREASE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SO THE RIVER WILL
LIKELY FALL QUITE A BIT MORE THROUGH MID DAY. WHILE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IS IN STORE...DO NOT THINK THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MELTING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE RIVER TO
REACH ACTION STAGE TONIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THE RIVER REACHING THE ACTION STAGE OF 16.0 FEET.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

GARNER/FERRIN