Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

415 
WWAK67 PAJK 040214
RFWAJK

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
614 PM AKDT SAT MAY 3 2014

AKZ018>024-040500-
/X.EXA.PAJK.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140504T0500Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON
614 PM AKDT SAT MAY 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS 
AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 018...019...020...021...
022...023 AND 024...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...AROUND 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 900 PM AKDT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ025-040500-
/X.CON.PAJK.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140504T0500Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
614 PM AKDT SAT MAY 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 025...

* AFFECTED AREA...JUNEAU AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND AREAS.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...AROUND 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 900 PM AKDT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

950 
WWAK67 PAJK 040457
RFWAJK

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
857 PM AKDT SAT MAY 3 2014

AKZ018>025-040600-
/X.EXP.PAJK.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140504T0500Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU
857 PM AKDT SAT MAY 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 018...019...020...021...022...023...024 AND 025...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AND FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO RISE.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO RISE ABOVE 50
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT...DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR RAPID
FIRE SPREAD.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
226 PM AKDT SAT MAY 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE N PAC INTO INTERIOR AK/WRN YUKON.
MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS DRIFTING EWD OVER THE NERN
PAC...WHILE A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WAS MOVING SSWWD OVER THE SERN
GULF. THE RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE FEATURE HEADING
INTO SUN...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
ACROSS THE GULF. THE APPROACHING HIGH WILL TURN WINDS TO WLY OVER
THE OUTER WATERS ON SUN...WHILE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
INLAND AREAS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT WITH A GENERALLY WNWLY COMPONENT.
THE CESSATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO
40...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. IN ADDITION...AREAS AROUND
YAKUTAT...GUSTAVUS...AND HOONAH MAY EXPERIENCE FROST SAT NIGHT AS
LOWS DROPS TO NEAR FREEZING.

MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS/RH WERE MADE...AS NONE OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CAPTURED THE DEGREE OF MIXING/BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS OBSERVED SAT AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...USED THE GEM FOR
PRESSURE/WINDS DUE TO ITS MINIMAL ERRORS NOTED IN MSLP
INITIALIZATION. BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES. NO ISSUES WITH POPS/QPF AS FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

 .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS YIELDED RH VALUES FROM 15-25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SE
AK SAT AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES OCCURRING OVER
CNTRL/SRN AREAS. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE LOCALLY BREEZY...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS LOCALLY UP TO 15 MPH AND MAX GUSTS FROM
15-25 MPH. COORDINATION WITH TONGASS NATIONAL FOREST INDICATES
THE DRIEST FUELS ARE LOCATED OVER THE NRN HALF OF SE PUBLIC...WHILE
FUELS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST OVER SRN AREAS DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DUE TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...LOW RH...AND BREEZY WINDS. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON SUN...BUT RH VALUES ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST TO FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 60. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THUS...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FIRE STARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE BLOCKING PATTERN
LOOKS TO START BREAKING DOWN THEREAFTER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE DISTANT SOUTH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE SE AND ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF TO
SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE LOWER
LEVELS NWLY...WHICH WILL STILL BRING IN DRY AIR FROM INTERIOR
ALASKA.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE
PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY
AND THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WIND THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS TO HAVE A NWLY DIRECTION
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND SHIFT FLOW ONSHORE FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS INCLUDING YAKUTAT AND SHIFT SURFACE WIND SOUTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE INSIDE WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CHANGE WILL CAUSE
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR YAKUTAT TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF WED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT...BUT EVENTUALLY WILL AS THE
LOW PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WINS THE BATTLE THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE END OF OUR DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER CURRENT MODELS HAVE THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE SE GULF WHICH WOULD FOCUS MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SE SATURDAY.

EXPECT CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE SHORT TERM. ONE
FACTOR THAT WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN THIS WEEKEND IS THAT SEA BREEZES WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE AND KEEP
MARINE AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER. THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT INTO THURS WITH THE PRESSURE PATTERN. MORE DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THEREFORE USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH THROUGH MID WEEK THEN GAVE
MORE WEIGHT TO NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE. MODEL MAX TEMPERATURES SEEM
TOO COOL BASED ON THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH THE BIAS
CORRECTED SREF WAS THE WARMEST SO USED THAT FOR SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR
     AKZ017-020-021.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

GARNER/FERRIN