High Wind Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

324 
WWAK77 PAJK 040116 CCA
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1228 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

AKZ023-026>028-040415-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0003.141104T0300Z-141104T1500Z/
/X.COR.PAJK.HW.W.0010.141104T0300Z-141104T1800Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1228 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
AKST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...SITKA SOUTH TO KETCHIKAN...INCLUDING KUIU ISLAND.

* WIND...30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. TAKE THE TIME TO SECURE TRASH
CANS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. BE SURE
TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT...AND BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS
A LOSS OF POWER.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

191 
WWAK77 PAJK 040358
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
658 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

AKZ023-040500-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-141104T1800Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
658 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL
AREA...AND THE HIGH WINDS WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ026>028-041400-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-141104T1800Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
658 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST TUESDAY...

* LOCATION...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE DECISION.

* WIND...30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...TREES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN BY THE HIGH WINDS...WHICH
  COULD DAMAGE STRUCTURES AND DOWN POWER LINES. TRAVEL COULD BE
  DIFFICULT IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. TAKE THE TIME TO SECURE TRASH
CANS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. BE SURE TO
PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT...AND BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A
LOSS OF POWER.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

486 
WWAK77 PAJK 040655
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
955 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

AKZ026>028-040800-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-141104T1800Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
955 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

WHILE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN 50 MPH OR LESS. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
626 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...A VIGOROUS LOW AIMING FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ALREADY...WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE FLIPPING TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
SYSTEM'S APPROACH. ACROSS THE SOUTH...WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 50
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN AS A LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA, INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY SHOULD KEEP WIND
GUSTS BELOW 60 MPH AT FIRST. HOWEVER, AS THE SECOND WRAP
APPROACHES...COMPLETE WITH UP TO 65 KT 925 MB WINDS...HIGH WINDS
ARE DEFINITELY A STRONG POSSIBILITY AS THE COLD AIR FILTERING INTO
THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE THE TENDENCY TO TRANSFER ITS
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
OVER STRENGTH AND TRACK WITH THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
EAST...PUSHING IT OVER CAPE DECISION. THE 06Z NAM AND THE 00Z GEM
PROVED A MORE CONSISTENT TRACK FROM YESTERDAY WHICH TOOK IT WEST
OF SITKA SOUND...WHICH WAS OUR REASONING FOR LEANING ON THESE TWO
FOR GUIDANCE. THE STRONGEST SECOND WRAP WINDS WILL BE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER, AND THUS DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE
TO POST A WARNING...GIVEN THE STORM COULD VARY ITS LANDFALL 40 OR
50 MILES EAST OR WEST DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND RUN.

GIVEN SOME SATURATION WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SUCH HIGH WINDS CAUSING MUDSLIDES DURING THE RAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER, QPF IS NOT HIGH WITH THIS STORM--MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY GET LESS THAN AN INCH--AS THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
FAST MOVING.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NORTH IS STILL UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM'S WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO RE-STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
IN THE NORTH...THE WEATHER WILL TREND DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE RE-MOISTENING WITH RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH. RAIN
WILL BEGIN IN ZONES 27/28 THIS MORNING AND SPREAD AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. YAKUTATB THOUGH WILL DRY OUT AS
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE FLOW
TAKES OVER.

SOME POTENTIAL OF OUTFLOW WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE FAR
NORTH. COVERED WITH 35 MPH WINDS DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND PLACED HAINES
NEAR LYNN CANAL UNDER STRONG WINDS. DO NOT FEEL THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BLOW THROUGH SKAGWAY AS NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY
DOWN THE SURFACE.

USED GEM/06 NAM FOR UPDATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD ENOUGH
CONSIDERING THE DISPARITY OF INDICATORS.

.LONG TERM...THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE LONG RANGE WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE EVENING TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
VERY DANGEROUS WITH LARGE SEAS FROM 25 TO 30 FEET OVER THE SE
GULF ALONG WITH STORM FORCE WINDS. WINDS GUSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE MAY BE VERY HIGH WITH SPEEDS OF 55 MPH OR
HIGHER POSSIBLE. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG
WITH JET DYNAMICS TO GET THIS LOW SPUN UP. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIME AS THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RAIN FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE NORTHERN HALF WILL
SEE THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH GALES AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE LOW 970MBS AS THE IT MOVES JUST OFF
PORT ALEXANDER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS BEFORE WEAKENING. THE LOW WILL SPLIT WITH SOME ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE BC AND ANOTHER RESIDUAL LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
BY WED NIGHT. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY
NIGHT AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

BEFORE THE BIG LOW THERE WILL BE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE VERY STRONG BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO SHIFT. RAIN WILL BE CATEGORICAL THROUGH TUESDAY
BUT IT WILL TAPER OFF WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AS THE BIG LOW
APPROACHES.

THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WITH THE BIG LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT THAT BAD BUT THE GFS HAS SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WAS NOT
USED. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST USED A BLEND OF THE GEM AND NAM WITH
SOME EC FOR TUESDAY TROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR

     AKZ023-026>028.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ033-036-041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-034-035-043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-032-051.

&&

JWA/ABJ

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