Gale Warning 9, NWS Juneau, AK

291 
FZAK67 PAJK 171210
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-180100-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND THE PANHANDLE ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. 

$$

PKZ310-180100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
335 PM AKST THU JAN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WILL TURN N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...AND BE N OF THE AREA BY
LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF FRI. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHARPEN OVER THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND FRI. USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND NAM AS THEY
SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL...WINDS...AND FOG
POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW RAIN IS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RAIN IS IN THE
CENTRAL AREA. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT N TONIGHT...THE RAIN
WILL GO N WITH IT AND ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT FROM THE S LATER
TONIGHT AND FRI. THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE N OF THE NRN AREA FRI
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO MOVE NW OF PAYA.
MORE PRECIP WILL MOVE NE WITH THE STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT BUT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF AND FAR WRN PART OF THE PAYA ZONE
THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS FRI.

AS FOR WINDS...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO DIMINISH OVER THE
PAGY AREA...BUT EVEN THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE GULF AS THE STRONG OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT GALES FOR THE ENTIRE ERN
GULF WITH THIS SYSTEM FRI. THINK THE FAR NRN GULF WILL BE NEAR MAX
GALES FRI...WITH 35-40 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. THE INNER
CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME ON FRI...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE
E-W CHANNELS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THOSE CHANNELS WILL SEE SCA LEVEL
WINDS FRI. CLARENCE STRAIT MAY GET BACK TO GALE FORCE BY LATE FRI
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-20
KT RANGE FRI.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR FOG...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE WARMING OVER THE
AREA AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WHERE
WINDS DROP OFF THE MOST OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SOME FOG FORM TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRI MORNING. THE HYDER AREA
THOUGH WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS...AND THIS WILL ALLOW LOCALLY DENSE
FOG TO REMAIN AS A STRONG INVERSION SETS UP THERE. A FAIRLY DEEP
SNOW PACK WILL HELP SUPPLY MOISTURE AS IT MELTS AND KEEP THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS COOL. WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE HYDER
AREA THROUGH 03Z SAT...AND IT MAY NEED TO GO BEYOND THAT TIME
FRAME.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY ESPECIALLY FRI. WINDS AT
925 MB FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY STRONG (SSE25-35+KT)BUT IT WILL BE IN
A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THINK THE FORECASTED STRENGTH OF
THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING DOWN DUE TO AMOUNT OF
SHEAR...AND GIVEN HOW WARM TEMPS ARE AT 925 MB...ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY AREAS. IF THE WINDS FAIL
TO MIX DOWN THOUGH...THE TEMP FORECAST WILL BE TOO WARM AND THERE
MAY BE FOG THAT LASTS LONGER ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SOME SNOW
COVER REMAINS. FOR TONIGHT...BASICALLY KEPT TEMPS ABOVE MOS AS
THERE IS LITTLE REASON FOR A LOT OF DROP IN TEMPS GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND AT LEAST SOME WIND IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BUT THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS IN A POTENTIALLY DRIER SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS
STILL EXPECTED THAT A COUPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS AND THE CENTRAL GULF EVERY FEW DAYS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONTS MOVING TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WITH AMPLIFY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

OCCLUDED FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL MOVE
INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVERHEAD.
STRONG WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE HYDABURG AND KETCHIKAN
ZONES. EXPECTING WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT TO REACH GALE FORCE. AS
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHARPEN ON
SATURDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE N-S
CHANNELS. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY TIME FRAME BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OUT IN THE GULF AS THE FRONTS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 4-5 C IN JUNEAU AND AS HIGH AS 8-9 C IN KETCHIKAN.
THIS WILL MAKE THE LOW TEMPERATURES TRICKY AS WINDY LOCATIONS WILL
MIX DOWN THIS WARMER AIR AND COULD STAY WELL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT. STEADY RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY AND A PORTION OF MONDAY BEFORE THE SECOND
FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE WET WEATHER MAY COME TO AN END AFTER
TUESDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WANTED TO SEE SOME
MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY ON THIS SO DID NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO THIS
IDEA YET. HOWEVER, DID TREND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DOWN TO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH DAY 4 THEN TRANSITIONED
TO NEW WPC DATA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED RANGE.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE DECREASES A BIT ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE RIDGE WILL SET UP.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019-025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023.
         DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053.

&&

RWT/TPS