Gale Warning 85, NWS Juneau, AK

270 
FZAK52 PAJK 071243
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-080100-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CANADA THROUGH
SATURDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-080100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014 

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-080100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014 

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-080100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. OUT OF CROSS SOUND...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
7 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-080100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-080100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014 

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 PM AKST THU FEB 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER GLORIOUS DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST...AND THE
DROUGHT CONTINUES. BUT YAKUTAT SHOULD GET SOME SNOW LATER
TONIGHT...STRETCHING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BARRELING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS WILL SPIN A LEE SIDE
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF LATER THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE...YES IT WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER, TOO, BUT NOT AS MUCH.

THIS LOW WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO GALE IN
ZONE 52 BRIEFLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO SMALL CRAFT FOR 310 AND
52. IN ADDITION...CROSS SOUND EASTERLIES WILL ACCELERATE LATER
TONIGHT TO SMALL CRAFT LASTING INTO FRIDAY. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
WILL SEE WINDS BEGIN TO RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
NOT TO THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED GALE LEVEL. LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS...SINCE THEY WILL BE PULLED TO THE LOW AS OPPOSED TO PUSHED
FROM THE HIGH IN NORTHWEST CANADA. THE HIGH WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH FOR DAYS...WILL WEAKEN FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH.

SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STILL
THINK THE NORTHERN INTERIOR COULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO QUALIFY
AS A NICE DAY...DESPITE THE WINDS IN CERTAIN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES COOLED IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...EAST OF
FAIRWEATHER OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SUFFICIENT CLEARING TO STILL
ALLOW FOR SOME HEALTHY INSOLATION. TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE IN
THE SINGLE-DIGITS IN GUSTAVUS AND THE MENDENHALL VALLEY...AS WELL
AS BELOW ZERO AT THE HAINES BORDER. SO DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES...BUT IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE...BUT KEPT THINGS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN THE NORTH. FOR THE SOUTH...THEY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR.

NAM AND ECMWF USED AS GUIDANCE, BUT MAINLY LOCAL TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD TO AVERAGE. AVERAGE FOR CLOUD
COVER IN THE NORTH. MAY BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC.

 .LONG TERM...THIS WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
CLEAR, DRY AND LOCALLY WINDY AS THE YUKON HIGH BUILDS TO AROUND
1040 MB BY SUN. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE BLOWING OUT OF THE USUAL
SPOTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED
FOR LYNN CANAL AND TAKU INLET SUN THROUGH MON WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR A TAKU WIND EPISODE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AS THE INVERSION DEEPENS AND CROSS BARRIER
FLOW INCREASES.

 MEANWHILE THE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE NW GULF IN THE SHORT TERM
TAKES A RATHER LONG TRIP TO THE SW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
THERE IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW AND BEGINS A EASTWARD TREK OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF, UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PANHANDLE STARTS TO TURN AROUND FROM A NE OFFSHORE
DIRECTION TO A SW ONSHORE DIRECTION BY SUN NIGHT. AT THIS POINT
MODELS START TO HAVE PROBLEMS. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME AN
OUTLIER ON MON AS IT DISPLAYS A 990 MB LOW JUST WEST OF HAIDA
GWAII ON MON WHILE JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER MODEL SHOWS A LOW IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AT THE SAME TIME. THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE
AGREEABLE TOWARD TUE. BY THAT POINT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A LOW HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE/DIXON ENTRANCE
AREA SPREADING PRECIP AND SOME WIND FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STICKING AROUND IN THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE END
OF THE LONG RANGE.

 NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE FIRST FRONTAL BAND WITH THE
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL HIT, BUT MOST MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD
MON. WHEN IT DOES ARRIVE IT WILL SPREAD SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AS IT MOVES NORTH. AS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES
WILL START OUT AS SNOW BEFORE STARTING TO MIX WITH RAIN LATER IN
THE WEEK.

 EXTENDED RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE STARING TO DIVERGE ON MON. DECIDED TO STICK WITH
THE EC AND SOME GEM OR NAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO GET THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY STAYED
AWAY FROM THE ECMWF ON MON GIVEN THE LOW IT IS TRYING TO PLACE
NEAR HAIDA GWAII. USED WPC FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED TO TRY
AND EVEN OUT DIFFERENCES.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-051.

&&

JWA/EAL